中国投资者不宜轻易动摇?

搜索关注在线英语听力室公众号：tingroom，领取免费英语资料大礼包。

The Chinese currency has held relatively³ stable against a basket of foreign currencies but, as a result of U.S. dollar weakness, it appreciated against the greenback. Investors betting on the collapse⁴ or continued depreciation⁵ of the yuan have suffered losses.

Meanwhile, some well-known international investment gurus who had predicted bad news for the Chinese currency and the Chinese economy have now become silent.

As for the investors who went short on China, they complained of being misled by those investment gurus.

Commentary: Investors on China should not be easily swayedIt may be true that these investors have suffered losses as a result of misleading comments which had been spread on the media worldwide. But the lesson that should be learned is that investors should look at the fundamentals of the Chinese economy and do more research themselves.

Comments by the investment gurus can be misleading, and when they are, they tend to create big noises on the increasingly globalized financial markets with the help of the social media and, sometimes, rumor⁶ mongers who spread the message in hope of profiting from market volatilities.

The threat is often real in that they can lead to capital outflows. It is now known that expectation of depreciation can often be self-fulfilling as expectation alone can create a downward spiral due to herd⁷ behavior.

The Chinese economy has experienced such pressure in recent months amid bearish⁸ comments on the Chinese economy and currency. It is close to a stress test. Luckily but not coincidentally, China passed the test.

Numerous events or statistics have been used as excuses of shorting China, such as the market volatilities on the Chinese mainland stock market, individual cases of debt restructuring, the reduction of redundant⁹ industrial capacity and the reform of state-owned enterprises.

But these incidents should not have been excuses for investors to ignore the fundamentals of the Chinese economy. Statistics released recently attest¹⁰ to the robustness¹¹ of the Chinese economy.

Despite a slowdown from extremely high growth in the past, the Chinese economy remained resilient. Employment creation remains¹² strong, with 13.12 million new jobs created in 2015. The Chinese government expects at least 10 million new jobs to be created this year, reflecting a strong momentum¹³ of the Chinese economy as it is driven by internal demand.

The Chinese economy is undergoing quiet but substantial structural¹⁴ changes. Consumption contributed 66.4 percent of China's economic growth last year. The services sector¹⁵, for the first time, accounts for slightly more than 50 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP), compared with about 40 percent for the manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile, the policy makers¹⁶ have opted¹⁷ not to adopt comprehensive easing in macroeconomic policies, but chosen to push forward structural reforms on the supply side by tapping strong domestic demand, pursuing innovation-driven growth and simplifying government procedures.

These changes mean China is now increasingly pursuing quality growth at a higher level instead of the fast but low quality growth in the past. Indicators¹⁸ that were closely watched may not be so telling nowadays.

With the people growing better off, the Chinese economy is changing fast and deep. It means that investors who are still trying to gauge¹⁹ China's economic performance with the old measures may not get the true picture. Betting against China based on the wrong information has led to losses.

There will definitely continue to be bearish comments on China, some by the so-called investment gurus or even by rating agencies. But it is for investors themselves to make a call based on up-to-date information, and it is advisable that they should not allow themselves to be easily swayed by noises in the market.

 

分享到：