耶伦谨慎言论使美国加息前景渺茫

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美国加息前景昨日进一步渺茫。珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)主张谨慎，理由是市场条件不利、海外增长弱于预期以及通胀前景不确定。

The Federal Reserve chair said recent declines in market expectations for interest-rate rises had helped cushion the US economy from adverse² developments overseas, describing the moves as an “automatic stabiliser”.

美联储(Federal Reserve)主席称，近来市场降低加息预期，已经帮助缓解了海外不利事态给美国带来的冲击，她形容这些举动是一种“自动稳定器”。

But she stressed that the Fed had little scope to reverse course and stimulate³ the economy with rate cuts if the US unexpectedly hit the buffers⁴, underlying⁵ the need for a gradual tightening⁶ of policy. She homed in on risks still stewing⁷ in China and the oil markets as she argued in a New York address for the central bank to move carefully as it considers when to lift rates again.

但是，她强调称，如果美国意外陷入停滞，美联储没有什么空间可以逆转政策进程，通过降息来刺激经济，这突显了逐渐收紧政策的必要性。在纽约发表讲话期间，她着重指出中国以及石油市场仍在发酵的种种风险，并据此主张美国央行在考虑何时再次加息时应该谨慎行动。

Treasuries⁸ rallied as Ms Yellen spoke⁹, with traders at CRT Capital calling her remarks a “surprisingly dovish take on the current policy stance and near-term outlook”. The two-year Treasury¹⁰ yield, which moves inversely¹¹ to its price, slipped 6 basis points to 0.81 per cent.

在耶伦发表讲话后，美国国债上涨，CRT Capital的交易员称耶伦的言论“是对当前政策立场和短期前景的出乎意料的鸽派评估”。两年期国债收益率（与价格走势相反）下滑6个基点，至0.81%。

“Whatever speculation¹² there was on [an April rise] conveyed by previous Fed speakers, that has been blown out of the water,” said Steven Englander, head of rates strategy at Citigroup.

“无论此前美联储官员传达了（有关4月加息的）何种推测，现在都已经烟消云散了，”花旗集团(Citigroup)的利率策略主管史蒂文?英格兰德(Steven Englander)称。

US stocks bounced off lows earlier in the trading day, pushing the benchmark S&P 500 index back into positive territory for the year, while the dollar slid to its lowest levels in a week.

美国股市从早盘的跌势反弹，基准的标普500指数(S&P 500)收市时升至今年最高水平，报2055.01，同时美元汇率下滑至一周来最低水平。

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