特朗普没准真能赢：五个理由

Here are five reasons why Donald Trump¹ could actually become president:

唐纳德·特朗普是否真能成为美国总统？以下列举5个理由：

“It’s the Economy, Stupid.”

“问题是经济，笨蛋！”

特朗普没准真能赢：五个理由

That’s a famous Carville dictum (from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign). It could sum up Trump’s chances, too, given the well-documented stagnation² of America’s middle class and the possibility of another economic slowdown.

这是一个卡维尔的名言（源自1992年比尔·克林顿竞选期间）。或许也能判断特朗普获胜的机率，众所周知，美国中产阶级萎缩，或将迎来另一轮经济下行。

Republican Weakness

共和党的问题

Some Republicans and conservative commentators³ are warning Republicans that they face a “Joe McCarthy Moment,” in which they must repudiate⁴ Trump or risk the wrath⁵ of history’s judgment⁶.

部分共和党人与保守派评论员都警告党内人士，他们面临着“乔·麦卡锡时代”，因此，党内必须否决特朗普，否则将承担历史审判之痛。

But GOP leaders such as Chairman Reince Priebus are more interested in immediate⁷ peace than their place in history, and amenable⁸ characters such as former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have said that nominating Trump is no big deal.

但是比起历史地位，像普里巴斯主席这样的共和党领导人则更在意眼下的和平，而跟前犹他州州长乔恩·亨茨曼（又名洪博培）一类的温和派曾表示，提名特朗普并无大碍。

Journalistic Weakness

新闻业的问题

It comes in two flavors. One is false equivalence. Reporters have yet to fully⁹ examine Trump’s record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be yoked¹⁰ with and compared to Clinton’s, which will make it easier for Trump to slide by in the resulting din¹¹.

体现为两个方面。首先是“假对等”。记者并未对特朗普的个人历史进行全面调查，尤其是在商业运作以及个人生活的细节方面，却很快就将他的事迹与希拉里相提并论，轻易将特朗普置于舆论中心。

The second flavor is the media’s hunger for an audience. The closer Trump gets to the White House, the more frightening he becomes, the more desperate his enemies become – the more eyeballs are focused on smartphones and TV sets.

第二个方面则是，媒体渴望获得更大的关注度。特朗普离白宫的距离越近，他就会愈加令人恐惧，他的对手也会因此感到更加绝望。如此一来，人们会更加关注智能手机和电视上的最新报道。

That means more billions in “free” media for Trump.

这意味着，媒体会报道几十亿条有关特朗普的消息，相当于免费给特朗普做宣传。

Hillary the “Incumbent.”

希拉里任现任国务卿

As much as Clinton talks about new ideas and a fresh start, she will be attempting the difficult task of holding the White House for the same party for a third-straight term. That last happened in 1988.

希拉里讲述了许多有关美国的新想法和新开端，因此，她将试图担当重任，代表民主党连任三期总统，上一次同党派连任发生在1988年。

More important, Clinton and her husband represent a force in the Democratic Party that is a kind of incumbency¹² within an incumbency, and that is a perilous¹³ place to be at a time when voters so despise Washington.

更重要的是，希拉里和她的丈夫代表着民主党的强大势力，民主党派是美国两大主要政党之一。而选民强烈鄙视华盛顿的情况，对希拉里极为不利。

The Numbers

赢得大量选票

Shockingly – given his outrageous¹⁴, race-baiting and even violence-tinged rhetoric¹⁵ – Trump is not that far behind in the horse race as the “fall” campaign informally begins.

尽管特朗普性格蛮横，有种族偏见，甚至还常常发表暴力言论，但是令人震惊的是，特朗普并没有在“秋季”非正式总统竞选中落后选票。

With the possible exception of Arizona, there are few, if any, red states that he would likely lose. There are also at least five large blue states in which he could compete. Together, they represent more than enough electoral votes to send Trump to the White House.

可能除美国亚利桑那州以外，特朗普在红色州（选民倾向于投票给共和党的州）失去选票的几率很小。同时，特朗普至少可以在五个蓝色大州（选民倾向于投票给民主党的州）获得大量选票。将红色州和蓝色州获得的选票相加，特朗普获得的选票足以让他问鼎白宫。

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