莫迪印度梦 时隔两年大盘点

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纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)在2014年5月印度大选中大获全胜让瓦拉纳西(Varanasi)的印度教支持者欢欣鼓舞。瓦拉纳西是印度北方邦的一座城市，位于恒河河畔，莫迪选择该市作为其议会席位所在地。

The energetic leader of the nationalist Bharatiya Janata party seemed to usher³ in a radical⁴ change from the sclerotic Congress government he had deposed⁵, promising⁶ jobs for the young, toilets for the poor and economic reforms for investors⁸ and entrepreneurs.

这位精力充沛的民族主义政党人民党(Bharatiya Janata)的领导人似乎发起了一场激进的改革，以摆脱被他赶下台的国大党(Congress)政府留下的僵化形象。他承诺为年轻人创造就业机会，为穷人修建厕所，为投资者和企业家推行经济改革。

Two years on, and even Mr Modi’s supporters in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous⁹ state, are beginning to wonder if the prime minister will be able to achieve half of what he has pledged — whether the target is a clean-up of the polluted Ganges or the revival¹⁰ of Indian manufacturing.

两年过去了，即便是莫迪在北方邦的支持者也开始怀疑他能否实现当年承诺的一半，无论具体目标是清理遭受污染的恒河还是振兴印度制造业。北方邦是印度人口最多的一个邦。

“Modi’s a realist,” says one retired¹¹ banker in Varanasi, “but he hasn’t achieved anything yet. People say he needs more time.”

瓦拉纳西的一位退休银行家表示：“莫迪是一个务实的人，但他迄今没有实现任何目标。人们说他需要更多时间。”

Higher up the Ganges in Kanpur, the industrial city once known as the Manchester of India, business leaders say the erratic¹² supply of electricity has improved slightly. But there are few new jobs for the 1m or so young Indians who enter the workforce¹³ each month: lack of power, the difficulty of acquiring land, restrictive labour laws and constant interference by bureaucratic¹⁴ and corrupt¹⁵ government inspectors¹⁶ have made sure of that.

在恒河上游的工业城市坎普尔(Kanpur)——这里一度被称为印度的曼彻斯特——企业领导人表示，电力供应不稳定问题略有改善。但每月进入职场的大约100万年轻人很难找到新的工作：电力匮乏、难以获得土地、限制性的劳动法以及官僚和腐败的政府巡视员的持续干预，差不多确保了这种局面。

“Definitely his vision is perfectly¹⁷ OK,” I.M. Rohatgi, who runs an education business and heads the Merchants’ Chamber¹⁸ of Uttar Pradesh, says of Mr Modi. “But the implementation¹⁹ is taking time.”

经营着一家教育企业的北方邦商人商会(Merchants’ Chamber of Uttar Pradesh)会长I?M?罗哈吉(I.M. Rohatgi)在谈到莫迪时表示：“他的愿景无疑很美好，但在实施上有点费时。”

Before he took office, Mr Modi’s liberal enemies feared he would become a powerful, authoritarian²⁰ prime minister who would impose or allow his religious backers to impose fundamentalist Hinduism on India’s heterogeneous²¹ population.

在莫迪上台之前，他的自由派对手担心他会成为一名强势的威权总理，把正统的印度教强加、或允许其宗教支持者强加给印度的多元化人口。

There has been some of that. One Muslim businessman in Kanpur said he was worried about “intolerance” following the lynching of a man in Uttar Pradesh on suspicion that he had eaten beef (cows are holy to Hindus).

迄今有一些这方面的例子。坎普尔的一名穆斯林商人表示，在北方邦的一名男子因被怀疑吃牛肉（对印度教徒来说，牛是神圣不可侵犯的）而被处以私刑之后，他对这种“不宽容”感到担忧。

P. Chidambaram, a Congress leader and former finance minister, says the government is “on a dangerous path” of promoting polarisation, while the BJP’s Arun Shourie, a disenchanted former confidant of Mr Modi, laments²² the “intimidation and silencing” of the government’s critics.

国大党领导人、前财政部长帕拉尼亚潘?奇丹巴拉姆(P. Chidambaram)表示，莫迪政府“正走在鼓励两极化的危险道路之上”，而曾经是莫迪密友、如今幻想破灭的阿伦?绍里耶(Arun Shourie)哀叹政府方面“恐吓和噤声”批评者的行为。

Yet the principal complaint about Mr Modi is not that he is a domineering Hindu puritan but that he has failed to do much for economic development.

然而，对莫迪的主要抱怨并非他是一名霸道的印度教清教徒，而是他未能在经济发展方面有很大作为。

“His concept of development is a few large, shining and conspicuous²³ projects,” says Mr Shourie, referring to such Modi-led campaigns as “Make in India” and “Digital India”. Or, as Mr Chidambaram puts it: “Where are the jobs?”

绍里耶表示：“他对发展的理念是搞一些光鲜靓丽、引人注目的大型项目，”他指的是莫迪发起的“印度制造”和“数字印度”等宣传造势活动。或者正如奇丹巴拉姆所言：“就业机会在哪里？”

Business leaders say it is unfair to suggest that nothing has been achieved, although few of them would agree with Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance and a former McKinsey partner, when he says “we are fundamentally changing the nature of Indian capitalism” to help entrepreneurs.

企业领导人表示，说莫迪一事无成是不公平的，尽管他们很少有人赞同印度财政国务部长、麦肯锡(McKinsey)前合伙人贾扬特?辛哈(Jayant Sinha)的观点，后者表示，“我们正在从根本上改变印度资本主义的特质”以帮助企业家。

On Mr Modi’s watch, India has accelerated road-building, invested in the ageing rail network, launched an ambitious solar power plan, opened accounts for more than 200m previously²⁴ unbanked Indians, and increased the foreign investment limits for sectors²⁵ ranging from insurance to defence manufacturing.

在莫迪执政期间，印度加快了道路建设、投资改造老旧的铁路网络、启动了雄心勃勃的太阳能发电计划、为2亿多此前没有银行账户的印度居民开立了银行账户，并上调了从保险到军工制造等行业的外国投资上限。

But it has failed to repeal²⁶ the previous government’s retroactive tax law, which has targeted Vodafone and Cairn Energy among others and sapped investor⁷ confidence. Nor has it so far been able to break the grip of the Congress party on the upper house of parliament to enact²⁷ a long-awaited goods and services tax that would benefit business and the economy by turning India into a single market.

但是，莫迪政府未能废止上一届政府出台的追溯税法，该法针对沃达丰(Vodafone)和凯恩能源(Cairn Energy)等公司，削弱了投资者信心。莫迪政府迄今也未能打破国大党对上议院的掌控，以通过外界期待已久的征收商品和服务税的议案。该税种将让印度变成一个单一市场，从而让企业和经济受益。

Mr Modi also faces intense resistance to change from Indian bureaucrats²⁸ and is undermined by ineffective cabinet ministers he seems unwilling²⁹ to sack. He sometimes finds his initiatives blocked by state governments — such as that of Uttar Pradesh — controlled by parties other than the BJP. Banks are constrained³⁰ from new lending by a mountain of bad loans for infrastructure³¹ and industry dating back to previous administrations.

莫迪还面临印度官僚体制对变革的强烈抵制，而且被某些他似乎不愿撤换的低效的内阁部长拖了后腿。他有时发现自己的举措受到由人民党以外政党控制的邦政府（比如北方邦的政府）阻挠。与此同时，可追溯到前几届政府的基础设施以及其他行业累积的大量不良贷款，限制了银行发放新贷款的能力。

Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political scientist at Banaras Hindu University in Varanasi, says Mr Modi “desperately” wants economic development and finds himself stuck in a “trap of expectations” set by hopeful voters.

瓦拉纳西贝拿勒斯印度教大学(Banaras Hindu University)的政治学家普利杨卡尔?乌帕德亚雅(Priyankar Upadhyaya)表示，莫迪“迫切”希望发展经济，结果发现自己陷入了满怀希望的选民设置的“期望陷阱”。

“He knows that in 2019 [the year of the next general election] people are going to look at these issues.”

“他知道，在2019年（下一个大选年）人民将会关注这些问题。”

Mr Modi has already been distracted from government by state elections, including one next year in Uttar Pradesh, whose 200m inhabitants make it politically the most important in the union.

莫迪已经被邦的选举搞得分心，包括明年北方邦将举行的选举，那里有2亿居民，这让该邦成为联邦内在政治上最重要的地区。

“I think he really wants to bring about change,” says Prof Upadhyaya. “But the problem is that the system on which he depends is mired³² with issues.”

乌帕德亚雅表示：“我认为他真的想有所作为，但问题在于，他所依赖的体制深陷各种问题的泥潭。”

For Harsh Pati Singhania, director of JK Organisation³³, a family-controlled industrial conglomerate³⁴ centred on Kanpur, the Modi government is on the right course but needs to focus on implementing³⁵ its plans.

对坎普尔家族企业集团JK Organisation的总监哈施?帕蒂?辛哈尼亚(Harsh Pati Singhania)来说，莫迪政府的方向是正确的，但需要专注于落实自己的计划。

“India,” he says, “for any government or administration is not so easy to govern.”

他说，“对任何政府或行政当局来说，印度都不是那么容易管治的。”

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