英国退欧公投相当于是自残

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他们在想什么？看着一系列的官方报告正确说明退出欧盟将对英国造成长期损害及短期冲击，令人感到非同寻常。什么样的政府甘冒公投的风险——特别是在经济刚刚从不到10年前的金融危机中复苏之际？答案是，一个把短期政党管理需要置于对国民福利的责任之上的政府。英国首相戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)或许很快就会因使英国陷入不光彩的孤立而闻名。

The Treasury² has already argued that leaving the EU might lower real gross domestic product by between 3.4 and 9.5 per cent in the long term. This is broadly in line with estimates from other reputable forecasters. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, a proponent³ of leaving, argues that the UK would enjoy a jump of 4 per cent in aggregate⁴ economic welfare after leaving the EU and adopting free trade (an unlikely choice). But this result is an outlier. It rests on implausible assumptions, not least on the impact of EU non-tariff barriers on domestic prices.

英国财政部已表示，长远来看，退出欧盟或将使英国实际国内生产总值(GDP)下降3.4%至9.5%。这大致与其他受尊敬的预测者的估计相符。而支持退欧的卡迪夫大学(Cardiff University)的帕特里克?明福特(Patrick Minford)则表示，退出欧盟并实行自由贸易（一个不大可能的选择）后，英国的总经济福利将激增4%。但这种结果是一种例外。其依据的是不合实际的假设，尤其是在欧盟非关税壁垒对国内物价的影响方面。

The Treasury has now followed up with a report on the short-term consequences of a vote to leave. In summarising the results, George Osborne, the chancellor⁶ of the exchequer⁷, has stated that the UK would suffer a “do-it-yourself” recession if it decided⁸ to leave. One might better call it a “do-it-himself” recession. For it was the government’s decision to take this risk.

财政部现已就退欧的短期后果发布了新的报告。在总结这些后果时，财政大臣乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)表示，如果决定退欧的话，英国将遭受“自身造成的”衰退。人们或许会更形象地称之为“他自身造成的”衰退。因为是英国政府决定冒这种风险的。

The new report’s main scenario⁹ predicts that GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to remain, unemployment would be 520,000 higher and the pound would be 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP could be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling¹⁰ 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal¹¹ Studies adds that, instead of an improvement of ￡8bn a year in the fiscal position, as the net contribution to the EU fell, the budget deficit¹² might be between ￡20bn and ￡40bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise, sharply slowing the planned fiscal consolidation¹³.

这份新报告在设想的主要情景中预测，比起留在欧盟，退欧两年后英国GDP将下降3.6%，失业人数将多出52万人，英镑将下跌12%。在更糟糕的情景下，GDP可能下降6%，失业人数多出82万，英镑下跌15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充表示，财政状况不但不会因省下向欧盟支付的预算摊派款而得到每年80亿英镑的改善，2019-20年的预算赤字还可能比留在欧盟高出200亿至400亿英镑，极大地拖累规划中的财政整固。

Indeed, the Treasury argues, plausibly¹⁴, that the very possibility of a vote to leave is already having an impact on the economy. But an actual vote to do so in June’s referendum would crystallise this risk and create significant and immediate¹⁵ effects, via three channels.

实际上，财政部似乎颇有道理地指出，退欧的可能性本身已对经济造成了影响。但假如6月公投结果真的支持退欧的话，这种风险将变为现实，并且立即在三方面产生重大影响。

The first of these would be the tendency of households and businesses to adjust at once to becoming permanently¹⁶ poorer. This would lead to significant cuts in consumption and investment.

第一个影响将是，家庭、企业会立刻作出调整以适应长期变穷的状态。这将导致消费与投资的大幅缩减。

The second effect would come from prolonged uncertainty¹⁷ about how the UK’s relations with the EU would work out. It is difficult to exaggerate the scale of this uncertainty. After a vote to leave, the country would not know the complexion¹⁸ of its new government, the UK’s desired approach to renegotiation of its relations with the EU, or the response of the other members, let alone any final outcome. The uncertainty could also be long-lasting. Even the formation of a new government and agreement on its new approach might prove difficult. The likely leaders of a new government have also said things in this campaign that must hinder the chances of reaching an amicable¹⁹ settlement with EU partners.

第二个影响将来自英国与欧盟关系走向的长期不确定性。很难夸大这种不确定性。公投决定退出欧盟后，英国人将不知道新政府的倾向、英国重新谈判与欧盟的关系时希望采用的方式、或是欧盟其他成员国的反应，更不用说任何最终结果了。不确定性也会长期存在。甚至组建新政府以及就其处理与欧盟关系的新策略达成一致可能都有困难。可能成为新政府领导人的那些人还在这场运动中说了一些话，这些话肯定有损于英国与欧盟伙伴达成和解的机会。

The third effect would be the shift in financial conditions. Markets would at once reassess the UK’s economic prospects²⁰. Asset prices, including the exchange rate (as the Bank of England has already noted), are likely to adjust downwards²¹ immediately. An appreciable²² increase in the risk premia on UK assets could emerge. Asset price volatility²³ would also increase. The BoE might face a difficult dilemma²⁴, since there is likely to be a simultaneous rise in expected inflation and a decline in expected output in the short term.

第三个影响是金融环境的变化。市场会立刻重估英国的经济前景。正如英国央行(BoE)早已指出的，包括汇率在内的资产价格很可能立即下调。英国资产的风险溢价可能出现大幅上升。资产价格波动也将加剧。英国央行可能面临一种进退两难的境地，因为短期内可能同时出现预期通胀上升和预期产出下降并存的局面。

Official sources have described, in painful and quite plausible⁵ detail, how far the referendum unleashed²⁵ by this government is a risky²⁶ and dangerous gamble with the health of a fragile post-crisis economy. This is apart from the risks to the future cohesion²⁷ of the UK and, quite possibly, of the EU, too.

官方消息人士曾以令人痛苦但似乎非常有道理的细节，描述本届政府发起的公投，是以后危机时代脆弱经济的健康为赌注进行的一场多么冒险和危险的赌博。这还不包括对英国以及很有可能对欧盟未来凝聚力造成的风险。

This referendum is, arguably, the most irresponsible act by a British government in my lifetime. To the objection that this is to deny democracy, one can respond that the country was a successful democracy well before it embarked²⁸ upon such referendums. Furthermore, the right time for a referendum would be when the UK is asked to accept further treaty changes or some other significant alteration²⁹ in its position in the bloc³⁰. Right now one can only hope that the country does not soon learn what it means to divorce in haste and repent³¹ at leisure.

可以说，此次公投是我有生之年见过的英国政府最不负责任的行为。对于认为不进行公投就意味着拒绝民主的反对观点，我们可以回答，英国在开始进行此类公投很久前便已是成功的民主国家。此外，举行公投的合适时机应是英国被要求接受条约的进一步修订，或是接受英国在欧盟中地位的其他重大变化之时。现在，我们只能希望英国不会很快尝到匆忙退出的代价，不要事后追悔莫及。

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