美联储鸽派 过早加息并不明智

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　　美联储(Federal Reserve)本月加息的可能性昨日进一步减小，原因是一名资深政策制定者阐述了一系列不急于加息的理由。

　　Amid fevered speculation³ about the US central bank’s policy meeting next week, which on Friday helped trigger the worst bout⁴ of market turmoil⁵ since the Brexit vote, Lael Brainard called for caution on rates.

　　在美国央行下周政策会议引发狂热猜测的背景下（上周五这些猜测在一定程度上引发了自英国公投退欧以来最糟糕的市场动荡），莱尔?布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)呼吁在利率上谨慎。

　　She cited doggedly⁶ below-target inflation, risks from overseas and a limited arsenal⁷ to counter future economic setbacks.

　　她提到了顽固低于目标的通胀，来自海外的风险，以及应对未来经济挫折的武器有限。

　　The comments by Ms Brainard, a dovish Fed governor and permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, will make it harder for Fed hawks⁸ to seal the case for an increase in rates as soon as September 21.

　　布雷纳德是一名鸽派的美联储理事和联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)常任成员，她的这些言论将加大美联储鹰派最早在9月21日就拍板加息的难度。

　　Interest rates futures⁹ indicated yesterday that investors¹⁰ see a 22 per cent chance of a rate hike this month, down from 28 per cent before she spoke¹¹.

　　昨日利率期货显示，投资者认为本月加息的几率为22%，低于布雷纳德发表上述讲话之前的28%。

　　The Fed would run the risk of provoking a sharp market reaction if it surprised investors by moving next week.

　　美联储如果在下周出乎投资者意料上调利率，将面临引发剧烈市场反应的风险。

　　In recent weeks, divisions have opened up between US central bank policymakers over when to move rates as some officials fret¹² about the risks of waiting too long and allowing the economy to overheat.

　　最近几周，美国央行政策制定者在何时加息的问题上暴露出分歧。一些官员为等待太久、以至于让经济过热的风险发愁。

　　Ms Brainard made clear in her speech that she thinks the risks of tightening¹⁴ policy too soon far outweigh¹⁵ those of waiting, given the economic hazards looming¹⁶ globally.

　　布雷纳德在演讲中表明，鉴于全球浮现的经济阴霾，她认为收紧政策过早的风险远远超过等待的风险。

　　She told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that Fed policymakers needed to take into account a number of new factors in setting rates.

　　她告诉芝加哥全球事务委员会(Chicago Council on Global Affairs)，美联储政策制定者在设定利率时需要考虑一些新的因素。

　　Among them was inflation’s persistently¹⁷ below-target level, and the possibility that the relationship between strong hiring and inflation has weakened.

　　这些因素包括持续低于目标的通胀水平，以及强劲招聘与通胀之间关联度已经减弱的可能性。

　　Recent developments suggest some reasons to be concerned more about undershooting than overshooting on inflation, she said.

　　近期事态似乎表明，有一些理由更担忧（通胀）偏低，而不是偏高，她说。

　　In addition, indicators¹⁸ such as the depressed¹⁹ rate of labour-force participation²⁰ among prime-age people and low wage growth meant the Fed should be open to the possibility of material further progress in the labour market, suggesting its officials should not do anything to get in the way.

　　此外，一些指标——如壮年人群的劳动参与率低迷，以及工资涨幅较低——意味着，美联储应该对劳动力市场进一步实质性进展的可能性抱有开放心态，暗示美联储官员不应该有任何挡路行为。

　　In the presence of uncertainty²¹ and the absence of accelerating inflationary pressures, it would be unwise for policy to foreclose on the possibility of making further gains in the labour market, Ms Brainard argued.

　　在不确定性存在、而加速的通胀压力不存在的情况下，让政策扼杀劳动力市场取得进一步进展的可能性将是不明智的，布雷纳德主张道。

　　To the extent that the effect on inflation of further gradual tightening in labour market conditions is likely to be moderate and gradual, the case to tighten¹³ policy preemptively is less compelling.

　　劳动力市场状况进一步逐渐收紧对通胀的影响很可能是温和、渐进的，就此而言，先发制人收紧政策的理由不那么充足。

　　The two-year Treasury²² yield had nudged to as high as 0.8 per cent ahead of Ms Brainard’s speech, but fell to a low of 0.775 per cent immediately after.

　　布雷纳德发表讲话之前，两年期美国国债收益率一度涨至0.8%的高点，但在她发言后很快跌至0.775%。

　　Longer-maturity Treasuries²³ were largely unmoved, and the two-year yield eventually settled at 0.78 per cent, roughly where it had started the day.

　　期限较长的美国国债基本上未受影响，而两年期国债收益率最终稳定在0.78%，与开盘时大致相当。

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