中国第三季度GDP的五大看点

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　　中国国家统计局将于明日公布对经济增长的最新季度估计值。

　　For Beijing, economic stability is paramount² as it focuses on reining³ in runaway⁴ corporate⁵ debt levels.

　　自中国这个全球第二大经济体1月份遭遇市场和汇率双重危机的震动后，其经济增长已恢复稳定。在北京方面专注于抑制失控的公司债务水平之际，经济稳定对其至关重要。

　　Investors⁶ and economists⁷ were largely reassured⁸ by the 6.7 per cent growth figure reported for the first and second quarters, in line with the 6.5-7 per cent target prescribed by Chinese policymakers late last year.

　　此前公布的一季度与二季度6.7%的增长率让投资者和经济学家基本放心，这一数字符合去年底中国政策制定者设定的6.5%至7%的目标值。

　　But they will be asking whether a credible⁹ debt-reduction effort is really compatible with continued growth in that range.

　　但他们将提出一个疑问，即可行的减债努力是否真能与这一数值范围内的持续增长并行不悖。

　　Here are five things to look out for:

　　以下五点需要注意：

　　The property sector¹⁰ and its contribution to growth

　　房地产业及其对增长的贡献

　　Real estate has been the driving force behind China’s economy this year.

　　今年房地产一直驱动着中国经济。

　　Some analysts¹¹ estimate that after factoring in property developers’ demand for cement, steel and other construction materials, it ultimately accounts for more than half of total investment.

　　一些分析师估计，如果算上房地产开发商对水泥、钢铁及其他建筑材料的需求，房地产最终占总投资一半以上。

　　The sector is a contradictory¹² one, characterised by price surges in China’s largest economic centres but also oversupply¹³ and stagnation¹⁴ in smaller cities.

　　房地产是一个矛盾的行业，其特点是中国几大经济中心城市房价暴涨，但较小城市存在供过于求和停滞现象。

　　As part of Beijing’s larger effort to control ballooning debt levels, more than a dozen municipal governments have introduced measures to cool overheated markets — a potential drag on future growth.

　　作为北京方面控制不断升高的债务水平的更大努力的一部分，十多个市政府已经采取措施为过热的市场降温，这可能对未来的增长造成拖累。

　　On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release its monthly survey of 70 municipal property markets.

　　本周五，中国国家统计局将公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。

　　Infrastructure¹⁵ and private sector investment

　　基础设施和私营部门投资

　　The Chinese government has pledged no more repeats of the debt-fuelled investment surge that maintained the country’s economic momentum¹⁶ through the global financial crisis.

　　中国政府已承诺不会再重复债务驱动的投资热潮，这一热潮曾支撑中国在全球经济危机期间维持了经济增长势头。

　　The pain felt in coal and steel-producing regions, especially in the first quarter of this year, was evidence of Beijing’s commitment to a new normal of slower, more balanced growth.

　　煤炭和钢铁生产行业所感受到的痛苦（尤其是今年一季度），证明了北京方面坚持更缓慢、更平衡增长的新常态的决心。

　　But with private sector companies failing to pick up much of the slack, economic planners have encouraged infrastructure investment by state-owned enterprises.

　　但由于私营部门企业未能挑起大梁，经济规划者已鼓励国有企业投资基础设施。

　　While this is not necessarily another growth-for-growth’s-sake splurge on wasteful¹⁷ projects given the real need for beneficial investment in everything from public transportation to water treatment facilities, it cannot continue indefinitely given the state sector’s high debt levels.

　　鉴于从公共交通到水处理厂等一切领域都确实需要有益的投资，此番投资不一定是又一次为了增长而增长的浪费性项目投资热潮，但考虑到国有部门的高债务水平，这种投资也不可能无限期持续。

　　Industrial production

　　工业生产

　　Less than a year after annual steel and power output contracted for the first time in two decades, manufacturers and even the long-suffering coal and steel producers have enjoyed a summer resurgence¹⁸.

　　在年度钢产量和发电量20年来首次出现萎缩后不到一年，制造商乃至长期处于困境中的煤炭和钢铁生产商都迎来了一个夏天的复苏。

　　Coal and steel producers should continue to benefit as Beijing weeds out weaker players in both sectors¹⁹.

　　随着北京方面在煤钢行业淘汰实力较弱的企业，煤钢生产商应该会继续受益。

　　While ministers have consistently rejected international criticism of the havoc²⁰ wreaked²¹ by Chinese steel exports, the State Council is standing²² by its commitment to reduce steel capacity.

　　尽管部长们一直拒绝接受国际社会对中国钢材出口引发钢价暴跌的批评，但中国国务院坚守其削减钢铁产能的承诺。

　　Inflation

　　通货膨胀

　　Chinese producer price deflation disappeared in September for the first time since early 2012, thanks in part to higher coal and steel prices.

　　今年9月，中国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比变动自2012年初以来首次由负转正，这部分得益于上涨的煤炭和钢材价格。

　　Producer prices increased 0.1 per cent year on year while consumer prices rebounded²³ 1.9 per cent on an annual basis, up from 1.3 per cent in August.

　　PPI同比上涨0.1%，而居民消费价格总水平(CPI)同比上涨1.9%，比8月的1.3%有所提高。

　　This progress should be reflected in an acceleration²⁴ in nominal²⁵ gross domestic product growth — continuing a trend evident in the second quarter — and a larger deflator, which is the broadest measure of price changes across the economy.

　　这一进步应该会反映在名义国内生产总值(GDP)增速加快（延续第二季度的明显势头）以及更高的平减指数（衡量整体经济价格变化的最广义指标）中。

　　Most importantly, continued increases in inflation will help companies pare back their debt loads.

　　最重要的是，通胀持续上升将帮助企业减轻债务负担。

　　Services and private consumption

　　服务业和私人消费

　　As evidence that a rebalancing of China’s economy is well under way, consumption contributed 4.9 percentage points of the first half’s annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent.

　　在上半年6.7%的年化增长率中，消费的贡献为4.9个百分点，这一证据证明中国经济再平衡已真正启动。

　　Investment accounted for just 2.5 points while net exports subtracted 0.7 points.

　　投资仅贡献2.5个百分点，而净出口的贡献是-0.7个百分点。

　　But there are signs that previously²⁶ robust²⁷ services growth is slowing, especially after last year’s stock market crash.

　　但有迹象表明，此前增长强劲的服务业正在放缓，特别是在去年股市暴跌之后。

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