中国楼市犍牛可否继续疯跑

　　当信和置业(Sino Land)的黄志祥(Robert Ng)大约30年前首次从新加坡来到香港的时候，这位房地产开发商在土地拍卖中积极投标，很多人把他看作一名闯入者。

　　Conventional wisdom was that he overpaid for everything, used a lot of debt and would surely implode².

　　大家都认为，黄志祥高价拿地，大量举债，将来肯定要破产。

　　However, as market prices kept rising, his aggressive faith paid off big time and today, he is one of the top property tycoons³ in Hong Kong.

　　然而，随着市场价格持续上涨，这种激进理念给他带来了巨大收益。如今，黄志祥是香港顶级房地产大亨之一。

　　中国楼市犍牛可否继续疯跑

　　Now, Chinese developers are the object of a similar debate.

　　现在，中国内地的房地产开发商引发了一场类似的争论。

　　Property, particularly residential⁴ property, has been very volatile⁵, stories of vast ghost cities abound⁶ and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities, the only ones where property is even remotely affordable⁷ for most of the population.

　　房地产（尤其是住宅地产）市场波动剧烈，到处是鬼城传闻，没有多少人愿意住在四线城市，而多数人只有在这类城市才勉强买得起房子。

　　Many analysts⁸ consider the most leveraged⁹ mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time.

　　许多分析师认为，中国内地杠杆化程度最大的开发商随时可能爆发财务危机。

　　Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards¹⁰ of $60bn (according to its first-half interim¹¹ unaudited results).

　　有些开发商的债务负担超过600亿美元，比如中国恒大集团（根据该公司未经审计的半年报）。

　　Moreover, Hong Kong has seen an influx¹² of mainland development activity, suggesting that these players are not particularly bullish on their prospects¹³ at home.

　　此外，内地开发商纷纷涌入香港拓展业务，表明这些开发商对内地房地产前景并非特别看好。

　　But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong.

　　但中国的情况往往是，悲观预言者很可能是错的。

　　Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important.

　　房地产作为一个资产类别在中国非常重要——可能过于重要了。

　　It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings¹⁴ and wealth for many households.

　　作为经济增长源头以及许多家庭储蓄和财富的源泉，房地产对中国金融体系至为关键（因为70%的银行贷款是房地产抵押物支持的）。

　　It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.

　　如果房地产不行，中国国内经济很难表现良好。

　　Property is an alternative currency in China, says Nicole Wang, the regional head of property research for CLSA in Hong Kong.

　　香港里昂证券(CLSA)的房产研究部门地区主管Nicole Wang表示：在中国，房地产就是一种替代货币。

　　But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity¹⁵’s soothing¹⁶ effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China.

　　但是，对于流动性所具有的安抚效果，没有一种资产类别像房地产那么敏感，而中国有大量的流动性。

　　And as it always does, liquidity is buoying¹⁷ the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.

　　一如既往，流动性正在推高房地产市场，而且远不止是在一线城市——在许多一线城市，许多夫妇假离婚以便每人能够以更有利条款购买首套房。

　　New home prices jumped 1.3 per cent month over month in August, the strongest increase since 2011, according to data from JPMorgan.

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据显示，今年8月，新房价格环比上涨1.3%，为2011年以来的最大涨幅。

　　Only four cities reported a drop in new home prices while they rose in 64 cities, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

　　中国国家统计局的数据显示，只有4个城市的新房价格下降，而64个城市的新房价格上涨。

　　And economists¹⁸ such as Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan dismiss recent tightening¹⁹ measures as not aggressive enough and likely to curtail²⁰ supply, thereby²¹ driving up prices even more.

　　摩根大通的朱海斌等经济学家认为最近的收紧措施力度不够大，并可能抑制供应，从而进一步推升房价。

　　Liquidity is coming from the sky, says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China.

　　香港的一位对冲基金经理表示：流动性好似从天上来。他指出，最近几年全球货币供应有40%来自中国。

　　So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure²² and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps²³ up its money printing presses.

　　因此，在日本和美国的央行讨论采取直升机撒钱方式，上马本地基础设施和其他大项目之际，中国已加快了印钞速度，这是其距离认识直升机撒钱这个概念最近的时候。

　　China’s total social financing for August was again at highs set earlier this year, while for the first half it amounted to $1.5tn, he adds.

　　他补充称，中国8月份的社会融资总量再次达到今年早些时候的高点，而上半年达到1.5万亿美元。

　　Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector²⁴, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities.

　　抵押贷款迅速增长；中信证券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂证券(CLSA)的数据显示，今年上半年，近三分之一贷款增量来自房地产领域。

　　The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the price of copper²⁵ and other commodities recover.

　　随着铜和其他大宗商品价格回升，中国以外的地区正在感受这种增长的第二轮影响。

　　Moreover, there are a lot of reasons why the business is attractive in Hong Kong that do not point to a meltdown in the property market across the border.

　　此外，香港房地产业务具有吸引力有许多原因，它并不意味着内地房地产市场将会崩溃。

　　That is true of course despite the excessive borrowings, the apparent oversupply²⁶ in unattractive places and the political risk which can haunt even the most attractive property firms such as Kaisa or Fosun.

　　情况确实如此，尽管存在过度借贷、非热点区域供应过多以及困扰佳兆业(Kaisa)或复星(Fosun)等著名房地产公司的政治风险。

　　Those factors include lower taxes and bigger scale, and also — it is true — the desire for US dollar assets, according to Ms Wang.

　　Nicole Wang表示，香港具有吸引力的因素包括较低的税率和较大的规模，还有人们对美元资产的胃口（的确如此）。

　　There are risks of course, among them affordability²⁷ as income growth slows.

　　当然也存在一些风险，其中包括随着收入增长放缓而出现的购买能力下降。

　　A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than holding 30-year US Treasury²⁸ bond.

　　新加坡最近的一项非正式调查显示，大多数受访者拥有中国一套豪宅的意愿超过持有30年期美国国债。

　　Only one investor²⁹ questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward.

　　只有一位投资者质疑业主未来提高租金的能力。

　　China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.

　　中国并非唯一遭受此类质疑的地区。

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