英镑贬值 硬退欧预示英国走向封闭

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　　关于英镑贬值，令人意外的是贬值幅度没有更加陡峭。

　　Britain is shuffling² towards an outright³ rupture⁴ with the EU and an immigration clampdown that would weaken engagement with the world beyond.

　　英国正逐渐滑向与欧盟彻底断绝关系，并对移民关上大门，从而削弱它与世界其他地区的接触。

　　The government has yet to grasp a simple fact of globalisation: nations cannot declare themselves open for business and then close the door to foreigners.

　　英国政府至今没有搞懂全球化的一个简单事实：一个国家不可能宣称自己对商业开放，随后却对外国人关上大门。

　　Britain will be poorer after Brexit — the pound’s devaluation is acting⁶ as a transmission mechanism⁷ to reduce living standards.

　　英国在脱离欧盟后将变得更加贫穷——英镑贬值正作为一种传导机制，降低英国人的生活水平。

　　Just how much poorer will depend on the quality of the relationship Britain retains with its biggest trading partner and on whether it can compensate⁸ for lost European opportunities by becoming a more attractive destination for others.

　　最终在多大程度上变穷，将取决于英国与其最大贸易伙伴能够保留的关系质量，以及它能否成为对其他国家更具吸引力的经贸往来对象，从而弥补在欧洲失去的机遇。

　　A soft Brexit and an open economy should be the goal.

　　目标应该是软退欧和开放经济。

　　The preoccupation, some would say obsession⁹, with immigration points in the opposite direction, to a hard break with the EU and a less hospitable¹⁰ business environment for nations further afield.

　　念念不忘（一些人会说纠结于）移民问题指向相反的方向，即与欧盟彻底斩断关系，同时对欧洲以外国家来说商业环境变得不那么友好。

　　Theresa May’s debut¹¹ this week at an EU summit in Brussels will see the prime minister pressed by European colleagues for a clear sense of Britain’s direction.

　　特里萨.梅(Theresa May)本周首次作为英国首相出席在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟峰会，届时欧洲其他国家领导人将追问她：英国究竟会怎么走？他们将会失望。

　　They will be disappointed.

　　英国政府迄今仍未提出一套连贯的分手战略。

　　The government has yet to come up with a coherent strategy for disengagement.

　　英国政府拿不出计划，有的只是一系列不一致的冲动，

　　In place of a plan, there are a series of inconsistent impulses and a cabinet power struggle between anti-EU zealots and economic pragmatists.

　　以及内阁中反欧盟狂热分子与经济务实主义者之间的权斗。

　　At the Conservative party conference Mrs May felt obliged to lean towards zealotry.

　　在保守党大会上，梅觉得有必要偏向狂热分子。

　　Britain’s red lines, she said, include national control of borders and an end to the jurisdiction¹² of the European Court of Justice.

　　她说，英国的红线包括国家控制边境以及终结欧洲法院(European Court of Justice)的司法管辖权。

　　Now she is beginning to assess the likely economic costs of such a stance.

　　现在她开始评估此类立场可能造成的经济代价。

　　After talks the other day with Mrs May in Copenhagen, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Denmark’s prime minister, remarked: There’s quite a lot of work that needs to be done in the UK before there is a clear view of what the British want.

　　丹麦首相拉尔斯.勒克.拉斯穆森(Lars Loekke Rasmussen)最近在哥本哈根与梅交谈之后表示：英国需要做大量工作，才能明确表述英国想要什么。

　　That is a charitable interpretation¹³ of the infighting in Whitehall.

　　此言是对白厅内斗的委婉解读。

　　On the one side, the argument is the now familiar one about whether to opt¹⁴ for a clean break with the EU or try to seek a close association that preserves privileged access to the single market; on the other, the debate is whether a post-Brexit Britain can become a beacon¹⁵ of free trade and a destination of choice for global businesses.

　　一方面，如今人们耳熟能详的争论是：应该与欧盟一刀两断，还是试图争取一种密切联系，保住单一市场的优惠准入？另一方面，人们就退欧后的英国能否成为自由贸易的灯塔和全球企业的首选目的地展开辩论。

　　Some of the more fervent¹⁶ Brexiters like to say that an unequivocal rupture, freeing Britain from all EU encumbrances¹⁷, would be the prelude¹⁸ to an opening-up to the rest of the world.

　　一些比较狂热的退欧人士喜欢说，让英国摆脱所有欧盟累赘的坚决分手，将是英国向世界其他国家开放的序曲。

　　Britain would swap¹⁹ its ties with a sclerotic Europe for a stake in the dynamism of rising economies such as China and India.

　　英国将与僵化的欧洲斩断关系，代之以参与中国和印度等充满活力的崛起中的经济体。

　　Liam Fox, the trade secretary, imagines this buccaneering Britain as a global champion of free trade and economic liberalism: Singapore writ²⁰ large.

　　按照英国贸易大臣利亚姆.福克斯(Liam Fox)的想象，这个敢于闯荡的英国将成为全球自由贸易和经济自由主义的捍卫者：一个放大版本的新加坡。

　　The flaw is that is not what people on the Leave side thought they were voting for in the June referendum.

　　问题在于，这不是持退欧立场的人们在今年6月的公投中投票支持的格局。

　　The Brexiters promised to tame the plutocrats and offered a calculatedly nationalist message about turning back the tide of immigration.

　　当初退欧阵营承诺驯服有钱有势的人，同时传达出有关挡住移民潮的精心构思的民族主义信息。

　　Brussels was cast as the agent of a global capitalism²¹ that saw Goldman Sachs and the European Commission in cahoots.

　　布鲁塞尔被描述为全球资本主义的代理人，按照那种逻辑，高盛(Goldman Sachs)和欧盟委员会(European Commission)沆瀣一气。

　　The referendum result was a vote for economic nationalism rather than for laissez faire.

　　公投结果说明选民支持经济民族主义，而非自由放任主义。

　　Mrs May has taken this message to heart, in part because it chimes with her personal political instincts.

　　梅认真对待这个信息，这在一定程度上是因为它与她本人的政治直觉合拍。

　　She has castigated²² overpaid corporate²³ bosses, called for worker representatives on company boards, imposed stricter controls on foreign investment in strategic sectors²⁴ of the economy, and emphasised the role of government in shaping the economic landscape.

　　她谴责薪酬过高的企业老板，呼吁工人代表加入公司董事会，对战略经济领域的外国投资施加更严厉控制，并注重政府在塑造经济格局中的角色。

　　What the prime minister is looking for is a new social contract in which big business acknowledges a wider set of responsibilities.

　　这位英国首相寻求一种新型社会契约，让大企业承担更广泛的责任。

　　The prime minister has a point.

　　梅不无道理。

　　But she has also reinstated a pledge to cut net migration⁵ by more than two-thirds: from its present level of more than 320,000 a year to less than 100,000.

　　但她也重申将净移民数量削减三分之二以上：从当前的每年逾32万人降至不足10万人。

　　To put that target in perspective: even if the frontiers were shut entirely²⁵ to migrants from the EU — something not demanded by even the most strident Eurosceptics — the numbers arriving from countries such as India, China, the US and Australia would have to be halved²⁶.

　　这个目标在实践中意味着：即便完全禁止欧盟国家公民移民英国——就连最强硬的欧洲怀疑论者也没有这么要求——那也得将印度、中国、美国以及澳大利亚等国家的移民数量削减一半。

　　Next month Mrs May plans to travel to India to promote investment opportunities.

　　下月梅计划访问印度以推介投资机遇。

　　Her hosts will remind her that if foreign companies are to flourish in Britain they need an immigration regime that allows them to attract the best and brightest — not just from India but from across the rest of Europe.

　　她的东道主将会提醒她，要想让外国公司在英国蓬勃发展，就需要有能够吸引最优秀、最聪明人才的移民机制——不仅来自印度，也来自欧洲国家。

　　Whether it is vehicles, banking²⁷, technology, pharmaceuticals²⁸ or food processing, multinational²⁹ supply chains depend on multinational labour forces.

　　无论是汽车、银行、科技、制药还是食品加工行业，跨国供应链有赖于跨国劳动力。

　　Free movement of people is more than one of the pillars of the EU’s single market.

　　人员的自由流动不只是欧盟单一市场的支柱之一，

　　It is a description of the nature of modern businesses.

　　它还是现代企业固有的特质之一。

　　That is why bilateral³⁰ trade agreements almost invariably include provision for visa liberalisation.

　　这就是双边贸易协定几乎无一例外包括免签证内容的原因。

　　So even as it takes Britain towards a hard Brexit, the proposed immigration clampdown makes Britain a less attractive destination for the rest of the world — no small problem for a nation running a current account deficit³¹ of more than 5 per cent of its national income.

　　因此，拟议中的移民限制在把英国推向硬退欧的同时，也使英国对全球其他国家的吸引力下降，这对一个经常账户赤字与国民收入之比超过5%的国家来说，绝不是一个小问题。

　　The reaction of overseas investors³² in marking down the value of the pound has been entirely rational.

　　海外投资者调低英镑价值的反应完全是理性的。

　　It is no more or less than a dispassionate judgment³³ on Britain’s future economic prospects³⁴ if it continues on its present course.

　　这是对英国未来经济前景（如果英国继续当前做法）作出的不带感情色彩的评判。

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