美元升息加大中国经济管理难度

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　　美联储(Fed)连续第二年不客气地打断中国共产党的年度经济规划会议。今年的中央经济工作会议将于今日结束。

　　During last year’s Central Economic Work Conference, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a decade. This week the US central bank not only raised rates again but also hinted at three more increases next year, adding to pressure on Chinese officials already struggling to contain capital flight.

　　去年中央经济工作会议期间，美联储进行了10年来的首次加息。本周，美联储不仅再度上调利率，还暗示明年再加息三次，这加大了本已疲于遏止资本外流的中国官员的压力。

　　The rise and the prospect¹ of further tightening² next year mark a potential turning point for the world’s two largest economies. Over the past decade, high yields compared with rock-bottom Fed interest rates have drawn³ foreign capital into China. This fuelled the renminbi’s decade-long, 37 per cent appreciation⁴ against the dollar, which peaked in January 2014.

　　对全球最大两个经济体而言，此次加息和明年进一步收紧的前景标志着一个潜在转折点。过去10年里，相对美联储极低利率的高收益率吸引了大量境外资本进入中国。这推动了人民币对美元在10年里升值37%，在2014年1月见顶。

　　But those “hot money” flows are now moving in reverse as the Sino-US rate differential narrows. Aggressive Fed tightening could even one day cause the differential to flip⁵, with bigger yields potentially on offer in the US.

　　但随着中美两国利差缩小，这些“热钱”如今正反向流动。美联储激进的收紧行动有朝一日甚至可能导致利差反转，美国提供更高的收益率。

　　As such, an already delicate balancing act for Beijing has grown still more difficult as Chinese officials try to stem the renminbi’s fall against the dollar without choking growth or raising Chinese companies’ already high debt burdens.

　　因此，北京方面本已脆弱的平衡之举将变得更加困难——中国官员试图在不扼杀经济增长或增加中国企业本已沉重的债务负担的情况下，遏止人民币对美元贬值。

　　Some analysts⁶ think the People’s Bank of China may raise rates itself — something it has not done since 2011.

　　一些分析人士认为，中国人民银行(PBoC)可能选择加息——这将是自2011年以来首次。

　　Jeremy Stevens, an economist⁷ at Standard Bank in Beijing, says there is now an “outside risk” of a rate rise next year by the PBoC. The catalyst⁸ for such a counter-intuitive decision — China’s economy is growing at its slowest annual pace in a quarter of a century — could be the renminbi, which has fallen more than 6 per cent against the dollar this year with further to go.

　　标准银行(Standard Bank)驻北京经济学家杰里米.斯蒂芬斯(Jeremy Stevens)表示，现在的“外围风险”之一是中国央行明年加息。中国经济增速已降至25年来最低水平，这样一个与正常预期相反的决定的催化剂可能是人民币，今年以来人民币对美元贬值逾6%，且贬值还在继续。

　　Yesterday the PBoC set the renminbi’s daily dollar “reference rate” at 6.93. “It wouldn’t shock me if the renminbi is at 7.3 or 7.4 by March,” Mr Stevens says. “At some point they have to decide to do something to support the currency.”

　　昨日，中国央行将人民币对美元“参考汇率”设在1美元兑6.93元人民币。“如果到明年3月，人民币对美元贬值至1美元兑7.3或7.4元人民币，我不会感到震惊，”斯蒂芬斯说，“在某一个时间点，他们不得不决定出手支撑人民币。”

　　The Fed’s move is a reminder⁹ of the many risks Beijing faces in the wake of Donald Trump¹⁰’s surprise victory in last month’s US presidential election.

　　美联储此举提醒世人，在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)上月出乎意料赢得美国总统大选之后，北京面临着诸多风险。

　　Most assessments¹¹ of “Trump risk” in Beijing have focused on the president-elect’s disregard for the “One China” policy that has been a central pillar of Sino-US relations for more than four decades.

　　北京方面对“特朗普风险”的多数评估迄今都聚焦于这位当选总统对“一个中国”政策的无视，该项政策是40多年来中美关系的中心支柱。

　　But the Fed’s suggestion that there could be three further rate rises next year shows that, for China, the greatest shocks from Mr Trump’s victory may instead stem from the inflationary consequences of his promised tax cuts and infrastructure¹² stimulus¹³.

　　但美联储明年可能再加息三次表明，对中国来说，特朗普胜选带来的最大冲击可能源于他承诺的减税和基础设施刺激计划的通胀后果。

　　Even before the economic ramifications¹⁴ of Mr Trump’s victory began to be digested, Beijing moved last month to stem outflows by implementing¹⁵ a series of capital controls. In its attempt to keep the renminbi from falling too far, too fast against the dollar, China’s central bank has also been selling down its forex reserves, which have fallen 25 per cent to $3tn since early 2014.

　　即使在特朗普当选的经济影响还没开始得到消化之前，北京方面上月已实施一系列资本管制措施以遏止资本外流。为了让人民币兑美元不致跌得太多、太快，中国央行也一直在抛售外汇储备。自2014年初以来，中国外汇储备已经减少了25%，至3万亿美元。

　　As bond and currency markets factor in expectations of higher US growth and inflation under Mr Trump, the pressure is continuing to build.

　　随着债市和汇市计入特朗普上任后更高的美国经济增长和通胀预期，上述压力仍在增加。

　　“The US yield is moving up, putting pressure on renminbi and capital outflows,” says Wang Tao, China economist at UBS in Hong Kong. “That tightens¹⁶ domestic liquidity¹⁷, which the PBoC has not fully¹⁸ offset¹⁹, partly out of concerns about the exchange rate.”

　　瑞银(UBS)驻香港中国经济学家汪涛表示：“美国收益率正在上升，给人民币和资本外流带来压力。这收紧了国内流动性，而中国央行尚未完全抵消这种情况，部分原因是担心汇率。”

　　The PBoC has guided Chinese money-market rates higher in recent weeks, partly in anticipation²⁰ of the Fed move. “Monetary²¹ conditions in China have tightened²² without a rate hike,” notes Chen Long at Gavekal Dragonomics.

　　中国央行最近几周在指引中国货币市场利率上升，部分原因是预期美联储将加息。龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的陈龙指出：“中国的货币状况在没有加息的情况下就已经收紧了。”

　　Others are calling for more dramatic action by the central bank. This month Sheng Songcheng, a PBoC adviser²³, told a forum²⁴ in Beijing that the priority of monetary policy should be to boost market confidence in the exchange rate. He argued that the central bank should consider interest-rate rises to achieve this.

　　其他市场人士则呼吁中国央行采取更为戏剧性的行动。中国央行顾问盛松成本月在北京一个论坛上表示，货币政策的重点应该是提振市场对汇率的信心。他认为中国央行应考虑加息来做到这一点。

　　Zhu Ning, professor of finance at Tsinghua University, says expectations of a Chinese rate increase have “become more mainstream” over recent months, principally because of “the strength of the US [economic] revival²⁵ and the tempo²⁶ of Fed rate rises”.

　　清华大学金融学教授朱宁表示，近几个月来，中国加息预期“变得更加主流”，主要是因为“美国经济复苏的力度以及美联储加息进度。”

　　Mr Zhu also points to inflationary pressures building at home. Some analysts expect that Chinese producer price inflation, after years of deflation, could be as high as 5 per cent by March.

　　朱宁还指出，国内通胀压力不断累积。一些分析师预计，经过多年通缩后，中国的工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)到明年3月可能涨至高达5%。

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