美国国家公共电台 NPR In China's Drone Seizure And Return, A Strategic Message To U.S.

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As the United States approaches the inauguration¹ of a new president, there is a dangerous dance underway in the South China Sea. Last week, China seized an underwater drone the U.S. Navy was operating there. The Obama administration demanded its return. President-elect Donald Trump² tweeted that the Chinese could just keep it. Yesterday, China returned the drone with no apology. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Beijing that the incident appeared calculated to send a message to the United States about China's designs on the region.

ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE³: After China fished the drone out of the sea and took it away, the U.S. filed a diplomatic protest. It argued that the drone was simply collecting scientific data in international waters. China, meanwhile, alleges⁴ that the drone was just the latest in decades of U.S. efforts to collect military intelligence on what it considers China's doorstep, and that has to stop. Yue Gang, a retired⁵ Chinese army colonel, says the incident was also meant to send a message to the incoming U.S. administration.

YUE GANG: (Through interpreter) We were hitting back, militarily but indirectly⁶, at President-elect Trump's messing with the one-China principle.

KUHN: The one-China policy allows the U.S. to maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan by acknowledging that the island is not an independent nation. Donald Trump challenged that policy when he spoke⁷ by phone with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen this month. But Yue Gang adds that Beijing was restrained and careful not to let the incident escalate⁸.

YUE: (Through interpreter) I hope that the U.S. side can read and understand China's good intentions, and see that China wants cooperation to be the mainstream⁹ of our relations.

KUHN: But some foreign analysts¹⁰ see other, less benign¹¹ intentions.

EUAN GRAHAM: Driving this at the strategic level is China's increased interest in the South China Sea as a patrol area for its ballistic missile submarines and all of the conventional defenses that are associated with that.

KUHN: Euan Graham is an expert on Asian security at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia. He says that incidents such as seizing a drone or building up a coral reef may not individually cause the U.S. much pain.

GRAHAM: But if it's the death of a thousand cuts, to a point when the U.S. can no longer operate freely, then that will mean the U.S. forward presence in Asia is fundamentally challenged at a strategic level.

KUHN: Graham's not saying that the U.S. has lost the South China Sea or its military advantage to China yet, but...

GRAHAM: The old days of being able to sail through the South China Sea risk-free have gone. Now every U.S. vessel¹² more or less attracts a Chinese shadow.

KUHN: The U.S. Navy conducts so-called freedom of navigation operations to keep vital sea lanes open. Retired Colonel Yue Gang says that China intends to put an end to what it considers U.S. military provocations¹³ in the South China Sea in the next five to 10 years.

YUE: (Through interpreter) The U.S. uses the pretense¹⁴ of freedom of overflight and navigation. But what it's really saying is I'm still the top dog, I maintain the order around here, so as to hold on to its domination of the seas.

KUHN: He describes the drone incident as a sort of body check which is unlikely to trigger a full-on brawl¹⁵ between the U.S. and China, especially during the transition to a new administration. But President-elect Donald Trump has signaled that he may be more confrontational¹⁶ towards China than his predecessor¹⁷. And more unconventional, too, by, for example, using security issues for leverage¹⁸ against China's trade policies or vice¹⁹ versa.

KUHN: Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Beijing.