耶伦:特朗普带来经济不确定性

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　　珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)周二警告称，美国经济和财政政策在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府领导下面对着一条不确定的路径，她宣告“货币政策没有运行在预设轨道上”，而加息太慢将是“不明智的”。

　　Testifying before Congress, the Federal Reserve chair painted a picture of an economy with accelerating growth, higher inflation and a robust⁴ labour market that has generated some 16m jobs since its post-crisis trough in early 2010.

　　美联储(Fed)主席在国会作证时描述了美国经济的景象：经济增长加速，通胀上扬，劳动力市场强劲，自2010年初金融危机过后的低谷以来已经创造了1600万就业岗位。

　　That improving picture, she said, justified⁵ the December move by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates for only the second time in the past decade and expectations that it would have to continue to increase its target rate gradually in the months to come.

　　耶伦说，这一不断好转的局面证明联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)去年12月份的加息举措——过去十年的第二次加息——是正确的，而且预计未来几个月需要继续逐步提高目标利率。

　　“As I noted⁶ on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise,” she said.

　　耶伦说：“正如我在以前的场合所指出的，迟迟不撤销宽松政策将是不明智的。”

　　Responding to questions later she declined to say whether the next rate increase would come at the Fed’s policy meetings in March or June. “I can’t tell you which meeting it would be. I can tell you that each meeting is live,” she said, adding: “It’s our expectation that rate increases this year will be appropriate.”

　　在后来回答时，她拒绝说明下一次加息会发生在美联储3月还是6月的政策会议上。她说：“我不能告诉你是哪次会议。我可以告诉你的是每一次会议都有可能。我们预期今年的加息将是适当的。”

　　The US dollar rose as traders focused on Ms Yellen’s remarks about a continued tightening⁷ of monetary policy. The greenback added 0.4 per cent against a basket of six major global currencies, reversing a loss of as much as 0.3 per cent earlier in the day.

　　耶伦关于持续收紧货币政策的言论引起交易员关注，美元随之走高。美元对一篮子六种主要货币上涨0.4%，扭转了当日早些时候一度高达0.3%的跌幅。

　　But Ms Yellen also struck a note of caution about the new administration and expectations that its plans for tax cuts and infrastructure⁸ spending would lead to looser fiscal policy and more rapid growth.

　　但是耶伦也对新政府以及减税和基础设施支出计划会导致更宽松财政政策和更快速增长的预期表示警惕。

　　“Considerable uncertainty⁹ attends the economic outlook,” she said, pointing to “possible changes in US fiscal and other policies” as one of the main sources of that.

　　“经济前景将面临显著的不确定性，”她说，并指向“美国的财政及其他政策可能出现的变化”为不确定性的主要来源之一。

　　Fed policymakers reiterated¹⁰ this month that they expected “the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate”, Ms Yellen pointed¹¹ out.

　　耶伦指出，美联储政策制定者本月重申，他们预计“美国经济的进展使得继续逐步提升联邦基金利率变得必要”。

　　Future moves, she said, would depend on continuing progress in US employment and inflation, which at 1.6 per cent remains¹² below the Fed’s 2 per cent target rate. But uncertainty over the shape and economic impact of Mr Trump and the Republican Congress’ fiscal plans was shadowing the Fed’s decisions, she indicated.

　　她说，未来的举措将取决于美国在就业和通胀方面的持续进展，目前1.6%的通胀水平仍低于美联储2%的目标。但她表示，围绕特朗普以及共和党主导的国会的财政计划的轮廓及经济影响的不确定性，正在影响美联储的决定。

　　经济不确定性.jpg

　　“The economic outlook is uncertain, and monetary policy is not on a preset course,” she told the Senate banking¹³ committee.

　　“经济前景并不确定，而货币政策没有运行在预设轨道上，”她对参议院银行委员会表示。

　　"We recognise that there may be significant economic policy changes and that those changes could affect the outlook," Ms Yellen said later in response to questions. But “we don’t want to base current policy on speculation¹⁴ about what may come down the line".

　　“我们意识到，可能会出台重大经济政策变化，而那些变化可能影响经济前景，”耶伦后来在回答问题时说。但是“我们不想把当前政策建立在对未来的猜测之上”。

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