印度可以同时打赢中国和巴基斯坦?

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　　陆军参谋长声称印度具有完胜中巴两线作战的能力。但是考虑一下，解放军有200万而巴基斯坦则有60万现役军人，但印度只有130万，数字上看好像印度并不那么美丽。

　　After 26/11 India was sorely tempted² to retaliate³ against Pakistan. As it was after the attack on Parliament in 2001. But after every major provocation⁴ it dithers. For sure there is heavy American pressure. But Indian defence planners also seem unsure.

　　在2008年11月26号孟买恐怖袭击事件后，印度非常想要报复巴基斯坦。同样的，2001年印度议会恐怖袭击事件后印度也想报复巴基斯坦。但是每次进行挑衅后印度都放弃了。当然有来自美国的重大压力。但是印度的国防计划者们貌似也不是很确定。。

　　Pakistan will fight to the hilt any Indian attack but after a few weeks it will wilt⁵. It hopes that the Chinese open a second front against India but that could be a forlorn hope. The Chinese inscrutable as ever may decide to do nothing. Or they may show solidarity⁶ with Pakistan and hit India.

　　R03;巴基斯坦刚开始会全力迎击对印的战争，但是坚持不了多久。他们会寄希望于中国开辟对印的第二条战线但是可能希望渺茫。中国一如既往的模糊战略也许什么都不做，也许会为了巴铁的关系攻击印度。

　　India would then be forced to take on China much to Pakistan’s delight. All along there would be intense American pressure to bring a subcontinental war to a halt. But it may not succeed. In the absence of China a sinking Pakistan would be tempted to resort to nukes.

　　解释印度将正中巴基斯坦的下怀被迫对抗中国。然后美国会施加压力终止印度次大陆战争。但是可能不会成功。如果中国不提供帮助，弱势的巴基斯坦可能会借助于使用核武器。

　　The situation would be as complicated in case Pakistan initiates⁷ a war against India. In a couple of years the Taliban should have taken Kabul. Thousands of foreign jihadis—Chechens Uighurs Arabs—would suddenly become unemployed⁸ then.

　　如果巴基斯坦发动针对印度的战争，情况将变得复杂起来。几年之内，塔利班将占领喀布尔。届时大量外国圣战分子将失去雇主，包括车臣人，维吾尔人和阿拉伯人。

　　Pakistan will almost without fail redirect them as well as its own jihadis against Kashmir. It tried the same in 1989 had the Indian army on the ropes but the army recovered and the Pakistani putsch failed. But now presents another golden opportunity that Pakistan is sure not to miss.

　　巴基斯坦势必将用这些人以及国内的圣战分子来对付克什米尔。1989年巴基斯坦也采取了同样的手段，让印度军队差点无力招架，但是印度军队后来恢复了，所以巴基斯坦的暴动才失败了。但是现在巴基斯坦又迎来了新的机会，它是不会错过的。

　　The only difference is that the Indian army is battle-hardened now and well-versed in counter-insurgency. So Pakistan will find it hard to detach Kashmir from India. Frustrated⁹ it may launch an attack elsewhere once again hoping the Chinese would join in the party.

　　唯一不同的是印度军队现在是身经百战，精通反叛乱。所以巴基斯坦很难把喀什米尔和印度分开。无奈之下，它可能会在其他地方发动攻击并希望中国加入战斗。

　　But with India not the aggressor China might be more reluctant to do so. Or they just might. With the Chinese one never knows. Indian defence planners must then necessarily plan for a two-front war. How prepared are they?

　　但是由于印度不是侵略者，所以中国可能不愿意参战。也有可能参战，中国人的心理谁又能了解呢。印度国防规划者有必要做好两线作战的规划。他们准备得怎么样了？

　　The vast majority of India’s men and munitions¹⁰ face Pakistan. Things look rather bleak¹¹ on its eastern front. Each time a few Chinese soldiers show up on the border an edgy¹² army alxs the media which raises a national alarm. The ghost of 1962 is still alive and kicking.

　　印度绝大多数人和武器都面对着巴基斯坦。所以东线看起来相当暗淡。每次一些中国士兵出现在边境，印度陆军就感到急躁不安，然后通知媒体，然后由媒体引发全国警报。1962年的幽灵依然阴魂不散。

　　The Chinese have unveiled two types of stealth fighters. The stealth fighter is an amazing conventional weapon. Evading¹³ radar¹⁴ and hence detection it can hone in with exact precision on an enemy target destroy it and return home unscathed.

　　中国已经公布了两款隐形战斗机。隐形战斗机是一种很棒的常规武器，能够躲避雷达的侦测，长驱直入，以极度精确的打击摧毁敌方目标，然后毫发无损地返航。

　　India is light years away from developing any reliable fighter jet leave alone a stealth. India’s primary deterrent¹⁵ against China seems to be missiles but long-range missiles can go awry¹⁶. Aim for Shanghai but plonk yourself in the water. An Indian proposal to raise a mountain strike corps¹⁷ aimed against China was scrapped¹⁸ apparently¹⁹ for lack of money.

　　研发出可靠的喷气式战斗机对于印度来说仍然是一件遥不可及的事，更遑论隐形战斗机了。印度把导弹当作威慑中国的主要手段，然而远程导弹可能会飞往错误的方向，本来是瞄着上海发射，但结果却一头扎进了海里。（印度的布朗运动弹已经名声在外了么。。。）印度的一项旨在建立山地打击军以应对中国的提议也由于显而易见的资金缺乏而作罢。

　　Indian defence planners have been following a twin-track weaponization policy. They fund indigenous²⁰ arms development but even 70 years after Independence Indian defence labs cannot produce a decent pistol.

　　在军备发展方面，印度的国防规划者们一直遵循着外购与自研并举的双轨政策，他们为本土的武器研发提供资金。然而，即便是在国家独立了70年之后，印度的军工科研院所甚至连一支像样的手枪都还造不出来。

　　The labs moan that the powers that be are really only interested in acquiring arms from abroad perhaps because of all the cuts involved. That may well be the case but the point is that India must arm itself effectively whether indigenously²¹ or through foreign means.

　　各个研究所都在抱怨政府说 只对从外国获取装备感兴趣，可能是与所有开支的削减有关。或许事情真是如此，但是关键在于，印度必须高效的武装自己，不管是否国产抑或靠海外渠道。

　　The previous government was so haunted by the ghost of Bofors that it literally²² put a stop to any major weapons acquisition. The current government seems keen to undo²³ past mistakes but it has convolved foreign arms procurement²⁴ with its Make in India campaign.

　　历任政府都被“博福斯幽灵”搞得心神不宁，那真真切切的让主战武器采买近乎停滞。现任政府看上去急切的想从过去的错误中脱开，但是“印度制造”运动对外国武器采购造成了不利的影响

　　The Rafale was the winner in a tortuous²⁵ tender process but when the government arm-twisted the French to make the jet in India they balked²⁶. The price would have to go up considerably²⁷ because the French would have to set up foreign supply chains in India Indian manufacturers not seen as being up to the mark.

　　阵风战斗机是这场曲折的招标的大赢家，但是当印度政府对法国施压以使该机能在印度制造时，他们畏缩了。那势必导致价格飞涨，因为法国必须在印度建立一条海外供应链，而印度制造商（的工业水平）看上去并不足以符合标准。

　　The air force needs about 200 fighter jets. The Americans seem inclined to make the F-16 in India but they do not not appear terribly convincing. Saab of Sweden has been an aggressive promisor but then again. Conflating buying foreign jets with making them in India could take years before they take to the skies.

　　空军需要约200架战机。美国人似乎倾向于让印度制造F16，但是他们并没有表现得让人完全信服。不过反倒是瑞典萨博公司（Artoria：即国内所称“绅宝”）诚意满满。在战机飞上天之前，海外购买与国产化加起来得花很长时间。

　　And then what about the stealth? India needs at least a few stealth fighters of its own to counter China. Any company we get conventional jets from must have stealth capability²⁸ as well as the willingness to supply it to us.

　　然后呢，隐形战机怎样？印度需要最低程度的隐形战机以反制中国。向我们出售传统战机的公司必须具备隐形技术以及向我们提供隐形战机的意愿。

　　Finally the military has to be made a more attractive career choice. The army suffers from a shortage of 10000 officers. A senior army officer recounted that in a country like India there is no shortage of people. But the army needs quality people. After Independence the army was a career of choice which led to the stunning²⁹ 1971.

　　最后，军队必须变成一个更加吸引人的职业选择。陆军现在短缺1万名军官。一名高级陆军官员称印度这样的国家根本不缺人。但是军队需要高质量的人才。独立后，军队变成了一个特别的职业，导致了1971年的大胜（第三次印巴战争）。

　　In both Pakistan and China military personnel are looked after from cradle to grave. We treat our veterans shabbily. Any army necessarily has to have brawn³⁰ but to prevail it must have brains like Napoleon Clausewitz and Rommel. Do we?

　　在中巴两国，军人的一生都有优待。我们对待自己的退伍兵很吝啬。对于任何一只军队力量不可或缺，但更需要像拿破仑、克劳塞维茨和隆美尔一样的领袖。我们有吗？

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