历史英雄名人演讲 第103期:惟一的关注:价格与价值

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　　15.惟一的关注：价格与价值

　　Is the Graham and Dodd "look for values with a significant margin¹ of safety relative to prices" approach to security analysis out of date? Many of the professors who write textbooks today say yes. "If prices fully² reflect available information, this sort of investment adeptness³ is ruled out," writes one of today's textbook authors.

　　格雷尼姆与多德的“追求价值远超过价格的安全边际”的证券分析方法是否已经过时？目前许多撰写教科书的教授认为如此。“如果价格完全反应既有的资讯，则这类的投资技巧将不存在。”一位现今教科书的作者如此写道。

　　The common intellectual theme of the investors⁴ from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies⁵ between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market. Essentially⁶, they exploit those discrepancies without the e efficient market theorist's concern as to whether the stocks are bought on Monday or Thursday, or whether it is January or July, etc.

　　来自“格雷尼姆——多德都市”的投资者们所具备的共同智力结构是：他们探索企业的价值与该企业市场价格之间的差异。事实上，他们利用这些差异，却不在意效率市场理论家所关心的问题，比如股票在星期一买进还是星期二买进，是在一月份买进还是七月份买进，等等。

　　our Graham & Dodd investors, needless to say, do not discuss beta, the capital asset pricing model, or covariance in returns among securities. These are not subjects of any interest to them. In fact, most of them would have. difficulty defining those terms. The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value.

　　毋庸多说，格雷尼姆一多德都市的投资者并不探讨beta、资本资产定价模型、证券投资报酬本的变异数。他们对这些不感兴趣。事实上，他们大多数都难以界定上述这些学术名词。他们只在乎两个变量：价格与价值。

　　There seems to be some perverse⁷ human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to continue that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper⁸.

　　人的天性中似乎存在着某种偏执的特色，喜欢把简单的事情弄复杂。最近30年来，学术界如果有任何作为的话，就是完全背离了价值投资的教训，而且很可能继续下去。船只可以环绕地球而行，但地平之说仍会畅行无阻。同样，在市场上，价格与价值之间还会存在着巨大的差值，而奉行格雷厄姆与多德理论的人也会繁荣不绝。

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