PBS高端访谈:肯尼亚大选中 有人担心之前的暴力选举会重演

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　　Battling it out for the presidency¹, the incumbent², Uhuru Kenyatta, and the veteran opposition³ leader, Raila Odinga.

　　Both men are the sons of the country's first president and first vice⁴ president, respectively.

　　And both men were leaders when post-election violence rocked the East African nation a decade ago,

　　raising fears today that the country could see a return to fighting.

　　From Nairobi, special correspondent Colin Cosier⁵ reports.

　　At Machakos bus station in Nairobi, people are leaving town.

　　We are afraid of electoral violence. The outcome of the elections are known. So us guys are just playing it safe. We don't want to risk our lives.

　　They're heading back to tribal⁶ homelands. And it seems a good number of those leaving are opposition voters.

　　We want change. Surely, we want change. We want our country to be -- to remove impunity⁷, you see?

　　This is a problem for the opposition, who fear supporters are moving away from where they're registered to vote.

　　Even if we stop them, they will go and book another bus.

　　But not everyone is leaving. Just across town, the opposition was out in force for its last big rally on Saturday.

　　Kenya's election has become a surprisingly close race. The opposition believes it's the strongest it's been in years.

　　And you really get the sense here that they think there is a chance.

　　The man inspiring that hope is Raila Odinga, the veteran opposition leader who's competing in his fourth, and perhaps last, presidential election.

　　This is a revolution for change in our country. And the change will come on the 8th Tuesday election.

　　He faces tough competition from President Uhuru Kenyatta, leader of the ruling Jubilee⁸ Party.

　　Let's compete on policy grounds and not hate-mongering of our people against each other.

　　Kenyan politics tends to align⁹ along tribal lines. After allegations of rampant¹⁰ fraud, the 2007 elections erupted into widespread ethnic¹¹ violence.

　　Over 1,000 people died, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Raila ran for president that year, and Uhuru, a young leader, backed the then-incumbent.

　　In the heart of Nairobi lies Kibera, one of the largest slums in Africa.

　　The violence that tore through here 10 years ago is fresh in the minds of some residents.

　　When the fighting broke out, I had a young child called Obama.

　　The main problem I experienced was that my child ate more tear gas than food because we couldn't get food. Life was hard.

　　This election, she's worried again.

　　The way I see it now, if things change and Raila becomes president, I don't foresee people fighting.

　　But I see that, if they announce Uhuru, I see war.

　　But not everyone fears history repeating itself.

　　Murithi Mutiga is a senior analyst¹² with the International Crisis Group.

　　What are the chances of seeing a repeat of violence this election?

　　It's understandable why so many are concerned, but it's also worth pointing out a lot has changed since the last outbreak of violence in 2007.

　　The new constitution that came into place spreads power and resources much more evenly.

　　In 2013, Uhuru was facing charges in the International Criminal Court over the 2007 violence.

　　He won that election against Raila, and the charges were later dropped.

　　This year, Uhuru is campaigning as the development candidate, while Raila promises to reduce the cost of living.

　　In the park outside of the opposition rally, two young men from Uhuru's Kikuyu tribe peacefully show differing loyalties¹³.

　　Twenty-year-old John Mugo is voting for Uhuru.

　　My tribe doesn't impact on what I do, on what I vote. I'm a Kikuyu, but I don't vote for a tribe.

　　While 25-year-old Vincent Kimani is backing Raila.

　　My vote, it's not about tribe. It's about a better nation, because I believe, when you work together, good things can happen.

　　A record number of Kenyans registered to vote in this election.

　　And with the opposition warning of vote-rigging, the question is, will either candidate be willing to concede defeat?

　　Long lines and a cold drizzly¹⁴ morning didn't stop Nairobi's voters from turning out early and in large numbers.

　　It was good. Yes, everything was good.

　　It is disappointing, because we came here very early in the morning, the wee hours in the morning, and almost like five hours in the line.

　　I'm glad I voted, and I hope we're going to have a peaceful election.

　　Kenya's history of alleged¹⁵ electoral fraud means all eyes are now on the voting system.

　　The integrity of that system took a blow last week when a top electoral official was mysteriously murdered, allegedly tortured.

　　International observers are watching closely. Former Secretary of State John Kerry led one such monitoring group.

　　Given what's happened in the past and given the stakes for the future,

　　it's a very, very important election, and clearly the citizens of Kenya are taking it very, very seriously.

　　Kerry's former boss President Obama, whose father was Kenyan,

　　released a statement calling for a peaceful and credible¹⁶ election, and to reject violence and incitement¹⁷.

　　Opinion polls have the candidates in a very tight race, but the only poll that counts is this one, the vote.

　　The challenge for Kenya now is to prove that the elections are free and fair.

　　For the PBS NewsHour, I'm Colin Cosier in Nairobi, Kenya. undefined

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