Earth and Sky:Narrowing Uncertainties 新发现

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Narrowing Uncertainties¹ 新发现

In science, theories abound². Some are proven true, some are modified, some are completely abandoned. But even discrediting³ a theory is progress. Learn more about sorting through the uncertainties -- on today's Earth and Sky.

JB: This is Earth and Sky. Scientists don't spend all their time doing research. They also have to convince funders and policy makers⁴ that their research is making progress and should continue.

Harvard University's Steven Wofsy said there is still a lot of uncertainty⁵ in our understanding of global warming.

Steven Wofsy: Sometimes people ask me, "Are we narrowing the uncertainties?" This is a fairly common question that you get from policy makers and politicians. And if I tell them that I've shown that there are a lot of issues that we didn't know about, they say, "Well, you're not helping⁶. That doesn't narrow the uncertainties."

JB: Wofsy says that politicians and scientists use different definitions of uncertainty. For example, a scientist might disprove one of several competing theories or even learn something entirely⁷ unexpected -- but still not be any closer to solving a problem.

Steven Wofsy: But if you then step back for a moment and say, "Well, if I didn't know that this idea or theory was wrong, and I made a policy based on that, that wouldn't be a good thing, would it?" So in that sense, I think I can convince them that I've narrowed the uncertainties, even though I may have just exploded what was accepted before.

JB: For a transcript of our conversation with Dr. Wofsy, come to today's show on the web at earthsky.org. Special thanks to the National Science Foundation, where discoveries begin. I'm Joel Block for Earth and Sky.