美国国家公共电台 NPR How Artful Is Trump's Dealmaking?

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RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

In five days, President Trump¹ is expected to meet face-to-face with the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un. There are a lot of countries in the region with a lot of things at stake, including Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going to meet with President Trump at the White House today. He's expected to urge Trump not to concede too much in his negotiations² with the North. Trump, meanwhile, is feeling pretty confident.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I've made a lot of deals. I know deals, I think, better than anybody knows deals.

MARTIN: Several experts in negotiation³, however, question whether Trump has what it takes to pull off a historic nuclear deal. NPR's Scott Horsley reports.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE⁴: For decades, Donald Trump has presented himself as a master dealmaker. That was part of his shtick on the long-running "Apprentice⁵" TV show and is the subject of Trump's best-selling book, "The Art Of The Deal."

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TRUMP: Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals - preferably, big deals. That's how I get my kicks.

HORSLEY: Trump describes his deal-making style as simple and straightforward⁶. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing to get what I'm after. Robert Mnookin, who directs the Harvard Negotiation Research Project, isn't sold.

ROBERT MNOOKIN: Although his "Art Of The Deal" sold a lot of copies, I don't think he's a very impressive negotiator.

HORSLEY: Mnookin, who wrote his own book on negotiation called "Bargaining With The Devil," says Trump often goes from tough an adversarial one minute to ingratiating the next. He used to call Kim Jong Un Little Rocket Man. Now he praises the dictator as very honorable. The president calls that flexibility⁷. Mnookin says it makes Trump hard to trust.

University of Florida law professor Joan Stearns Johnsen says there are different ways to approach negotiation for different people or situations. Trump, she says, is a purely⁸ competitive negotiator.

JOAN STEARNS JOHNSEN: They like to win. Competitive negotiators are very much focused on winning. They're the sort of negotiator who might start with a rather extreme position in one way or another, like to engage in that tug⁹ of war. They really enjoy negotiation.

HORSLEY: In his book, Trump recommends using leverage¹⁰ to extract a bargain. In business, for example, he might press a contractor¹¹ who couldn't afford to challenge him to accept less than the agreed-upon price. Over time, Johnsen says, that tactic¹² can backfire.

JOHNSEN: You may get a really wonderful deal the first time, but there will be a reputation that's formed. And people will be on their guard. There are no one-off negotiations 'cause it's such a small world.

HORSLEY: That's proving true in the diplomatic world as well. Trump has notched¹³ a few successes, like the new South Korean trade deal. But for the most part, other countries have not bent¹⁴ to his will. Mexico hasn't paid for the border wall. Europeans haven't cut their steel exports. And China shows no signs of abandoning its high-tech¹⁵ development strategy.

Leslie Mulligan, who trains negotiators for the consulting firm Watershed¹⁶ Associates, says hardball tactics may work OK in one-off real estate deals, but they don't foster long-term relationships. Case in point - how can Trump get Europe's help in revising the Iran nuclear deal after pulling out of the Paris climate accord and slapping the EU with big tariffs¹⁷?

LESLIE MULLIGAN: Those European allies are not sure anymore. That trust has been eroded¹⁸ a little bit in terms of those relationships that we have.

HORSLEY: Mulligan says there's nothing wrong with setting ambitious goals for a negotiation, or what Trump calls thinking big. But the person sitting across the table also has a say. Successful negotiators craft agreements in which everyone walks away a winner. They don't just assume they can dictate¹⁹ terms of the deal.

MULLIGAN: I think instinctively²⁰, he still thinks we're the biggest. We're the best. And we should be able to get what we want.

HORSLEY: Despite his apparent confidence, Trump says it's important not to get too attached to any particular deal.

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TRUMP: You go into deals that are 100 percent certain, it doesn't happen. You go into deals that have no chance, and it happens, and sometimes happens easily.

HORSLEY: Even as experts like Mnookin discount the president's negotiating skills, they welcome his talks with North Korea, saying at this point, talks are preferable to the alternative. Mnookin even gives Trump a grudging²¹ nod for his fire and fury rhetoric²², saying that threat may be what spooked China into greater cooperation. In a deal-maker's game of chicken, Mnookin says, acting²³ irrational²⁴ can sometimes be an advantage.

MNOOKIN: On the other hand, that is an extremely dangerous game because two people can play that game. And what can often happen is things can explode.

HORSLEY: That's risky²⁵ in any negotiation, especially one with nuclear stakes. Scott Horsley, NPR News, Washington.

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