国家地理:为什么病毒让我们措手不及(5)

（单词翻译）

What's it been like to watch the coronavirus pandemic unfold nearly three decades after I wrote that a pandemic would unfold in pretty much this way? It's induced a strange vertigo¹, to be honest. It's also sparked an unfamiliar² kind of solipsism, enough to make me wonder: If I had made the case for surveillance and preparation more forcefully back then -- that is, if I had written a better book -- would we be here now?

在我写过一场大流行会以这种方式爆发的三十年后，亲眼目睹冠状病毒大流行的发生是什么感觉？老实说，这引起了一种奇怪的眩晕。它还引发了一种陌生的唯我主义，这足以让我怀疑：如果我当时能更有力地阐明监测和准备的理由--也就是说，如果我写了一本更好的书，我们现在还会是这样的处境吗？

Still, there's something enlightening about reading the book's stories about the epidemics³ from the last century, when new viruses kept emerging, raging through a population, and eventually dying out. But never since the 1918-19 influenza⁴ pandemic has any been on this scale, and never with this ferocious⁵ mixture of transmissibility and lethality⁶. We almost learned the right lessons in the 1990s, and then we ignored them; maybe this time, with prediction having become reality, the lessons will stick.

阅读这本书中关于上世纪的流行病的故事，还是有所启发的，当时新的病毒不断出现、在人群中肆虐，最终消声匿迹。但自1918至1919年的流感大流行以来，从未发生如此大规模的疫情，也从未发生传染性和致死率都这么高的疫情。在20世纪90年代我们几乎学到教训，后来却又忽略它们；或许这一次，眼看预测已经变成现实，我们终于会记取教训。