VOA科学技术2023 估算显示印度退出煤炭产业可能需要9000亿美元

（单词翻译）

A new estimate suggests India would need to spend about $900 billion to transition from coal to cleaner forms of energy.

一项新的评估表明，印度从煤炭过渡到更清洁的能源将需要花费约9000亿美元。

The estimate was recently released by the New Delhi-based environmental policy group iFOREST.

该评估最近由新德里的环境政策集团IFOREST发布。

iFOREST produced two reports that attempted to predict how much money it would take for India to move away from coal and other high-polluting fuels. The effort took into account the amount of money required to create new industry jobs for people employed at centers using coal and other fossil fuels.

iFOREST提出了两份报告，试图预测印度抛弃煤炭和其它高污染燃料需要多少资金。这项工作考虑了为煤炭和其它化石燃料行业雇员创造新的产业岗位所需的资金量。

Climate and energy experts have long sought to study ways to limit the economic harms of transitioning to cleaner energy fuels. Such considerations have been called "just transition."

气候和能源专家长期以来一直试图研究限制过渡到清洁能源燃料所造成危害的方法。此类考虑被称为“合乎公义的过渡。”

iFOREST head Chandra Bhushan told The Associated Press that just transition should be seen as a chance "for India to support green growth in the country's fossil fuel dependent states and districts.

iFOREST主管Chandra Bhushan对美联社表示，应将“合乎正义的过渡”视为印度支持在依赖化石燃料的地区支持绿色增长的机会。

To get the $900 billion number, the group studied four coal districts in India and identified eight different cost elements. These included things like equipment, buildings and training for workers to transition jobs.

为了得出9000亿美元这个数字，该集团研究了印度4个煤炭区，并确定了8种不同的成本要素。其中包括设备、建筑物和培训工人的费用。

The reports suggest the biggest single investment to permit a just transition will be the cost of setting up clean energy infrastructure¹. That cost is estimated to be up to $472 billion by 2050. Getting workers new clean energy jobs will cost less than 10 percent of the total amount required, or about $9 billion.

报告表明，合乎公义的过渡最大的单一投资将是建立清洁能源基础设施的开支。到2050年，这一开支预计高达4720亿美元。让工人获得新清洁能源岗位的成本不到所需总金额的10%，约为90亿美元。

iFOREST said $600 billion would come as investments in new industries and infrastructure. An additional $300 billion would come in the form of government assistance to support coal industry workers and affected² communities.

iFOREST表示，对新行业和基础设施的投资将需要6000亿美元。另外的3000亿美元将以政府补贴的形式支持煤炭行业工人和受影响的社区。

Sandeep Pai is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C.-based policy group. He told the AP he thinks such a transition effort would be huge for India. He said the change could affect up to 20 million energy workers. "Reports like this are extremely important since the just transition conversation is beginning only now in India," Pai said. "We need much more," he added.

Sandeep Pai 就职于华盛顿特区的战略与国际研究中心。他对美联社表示，他认为这种过渡努力对印度来说耗资巨大。他说，这种变化可能会影响多达2000万能源工作者。Pai表示：“这样的报告非常重要，因为合乎公义的过渡现在在印度才刚刚开始，我们需要更多这样的报告。”

Studies have shown that India releases a large amount of planet-warming gases. Only China, the United States and the European Union release more. India depends on coal for 75 percent of its electricity needs and for 55 percent of its overall energy needs.

研究表明，印度释放了大量的行星温室气体。只有中国、美国和欧洲释放出更多。印度75%的电力需求以及55%的总能源需求依赖煤炭。

Earlier this month, the Indian government issued emergency orders requiring coal plants to run at full levels through this summer to avoid any power outages. Official numbers show the country's coal use is expected to be at its highest between 2035 and 2040.

本月初，印度发布了紧急命令，要求煤电厂在今年夏天全力运行以避免停电。官方数字显示，该国的煤炭使用量预计将在2035年到2040年之间达到最高水平。

In 2021, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the country had set a goal to reach net zero emissions³ by 2070. Net zero is when a country removes as many emissions as it produces.

2021年，印度总理莫迪宣布，该国已经设定了到2070年净零排放到目标。净零是一个国家消除其产生的排放量。

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently urged nations around the world to speed up their net zero goals. He called on developing countries to make 2050 their target year.

联合国秘书长古特雷斯最近督促世界各国加快其净零目标。他呼吁发展中国家将2050年作为其目标年。

The recent reports say that the Indian government should first aim to close its old and unprofitable mines and power centers. Over 200 of India's more than 459 mines can be closed in this way.

最近的报告称，印度政府首先要关闭古老而无利可图的矿山和电厂。印度459多个矿山中，有200多个可以通过这种方式关闭。

"The energy transition has to start with coal," said Jayant Sinha, an Indian lawmaker who represents the coal-rich area of Hazaribagh in the central state of Jharkhand.

印度贾坎德邦中部哈扎里巴格煤炭富裕地区代表议员贾亚特·辛哈表示：“能源过渡必须从煤炭开始。”

Sinha added that the move to clean energy needs both money and support from the government and environmental groups. "Both of this must happen together," he said "for a successful transition."

辛哈还表示，清洁能源行动需要政府和环保组织的资金和支持。他说：“对于成功过渡来说，这两者缺一不可。”