美国国家公共电台 NPR--The economic headwinds facing Philippine President-elect Marcos are stiff

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The economic headwinds facing Philippine President-elect Marcos are stiff

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A pandemic and soaring oil prices would be a challenge for any incoming leader. But Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the son of dictator who abused Filipinos' rights, and his mother plundered² billions.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the Philippines right now is its sluggish³ economy. The president-elect will need to revive it. But as NPR's Julie McCarthy reports, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s family legacy⁴ complicates⁵ that.

JULIE MCCARTHY, BYLINE⁶: The economic headwinds facing Marcos are stiff. Pandemic-induced spending has saddled the Philippines with a whopping debt. Inflation, a global peril⁷, has jacked prices at the pump to over $5 a gallon.

(SOUND OF ENGINES AND HONKING)

MCCARTHY: Reynaldo Ortega drives a jeepney, a form of cheap local transport

REYNALDO ORTEGA: (Speaking Filipino).

MCCARTHY: "They say the fuel prices are because of the war between Russia and Ukraine," Ortega says. "Before, we used to make a decent living. Now we work longer and earn only half as much." A pandemic and soaring oil prices would be a challenge for any incoming leader. But Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is no ordinary president in waiting. He is the direct heir of a dictator who abused the rights of thousands of Filipinos and, alongside his wife, Imelda Marcos, plundered billions.

PETER MUMFORD: For those of us that are old enough to remember the - when the Marcos family was in charge before - that's a huge thing.

MCCARTHY: That's Peter Mumford with the Eurasia Group. He says you cannot assume that Marcos 2.0 is going to be Marcos 1.0. But businessman Rafael Ongpin says Marcos' chief problem will be overcoming apprehensions⁸ that he'll behave like his parents.

RAFAEL ONGPIN: The father and the mother treated the Philippine treasury⁹ as their own personal bank account. That is the main headwind. People don't trust him.

MCCARTHY: Analyst¹⁰ Robert Herrera-Lim says, to gain trust, Marcos must first assemble a strong economic team. He says Marcos offered no details on his economic strategy. And the uncertainty¹¹ saw the main Philippine stock index plunge¹² last week following global declines. Herrera-Lim says prominent economists¹³ had backed Marcos' rival, Vice¹⁴ President Leni Robredo, and says some of the best economic minds will have no interest in serving Marcos.

ROBERT HERRERA-LIM: That is one of the challenges of Marcos, that the pool of possible choices that he has among the Philippine elites¹⁵, among the Philippine bureaucrats¹⁶, the academe, the business community is smaller, I think, than of the past few presidents.

MCCARTHY: The Marcoses have come to be regarded more as cultural figures than political ones - the Kardashians of the Philippines, as one commentator¹⁷ put it. But Marcos Jr. has also secured a stunning¹⁸ lead in unofficial returns that analysts¹⁹ say might persuade one-time Marcos detractors to join his team. Eurasia Group's Mumford, meanwhile, expects a Marcos administration to continue to welcome foreign investment. But investors²⁰ will be keeping a watchful²¹ eye on who Marcos ultimately names as advisers²².

MUMFORD: Is he going to draw in more independent-minded technical experts, or is he going to largely tap into his wider family and personal connections?

MCCARTHY: If it's the latter, Mumford says the cronyism²³ and favoritism long familiar to Filipinos could get worse. In any case, the Philippines is in for a rough ride. JP Morgan this week dropped the country to the bottom of an investment preference list, putting the Philippines behind its other Southeast Asian peers.

Julie McCarthy, NPR News, Manila.

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