信息技术的力量 ——路易斯·郭士纳

（单词翻译）

The power of technology

——Louis V. Gerstner

Good evening! It is a great honor for me to share this stage with the Lord Mayor, chiefexecutive of Hannover, with Mr. Yang, and in a few minutes with Chancellor¹ Kohl.

I have been looking forward to this evening for a long time, because I have known for manyyears how important CeBIT is to the global Information Technology industry.

So before I go any further, I want to thank you very much for inviting² me to participate inthis important forum³ .

Now I have given a lot of thought as to what I would say to you this evening. On the onehand, I am here as a representative of the Information Technology industry on the event that isbigger by orders of magnitude than any other technology exhibit.

That is quite a statement in a industry; that is good at many things, especially celebrating itsown creations.

On the other hand, like most of you, I have spent most of my professional life as a customerof this industry.

So I know that after the splash and promises comes the harsh light of morning and often thecustomer is left standing⁴ alone wondering what happened, or as the head of one of our mostimportant German customers put it, "Yours is an industry that is very good at weddings and not sogood at marriages."

So tonight, while I will talk about the power and potential of Information Technology, I hopethe temper of my remarks with the perspective I had when I came to IBM five years ago, theperspective of a customer.

Now it is certainly easy to see why raw technology dominates these events. It is adoptive; itis breathtaking; and it is penetrating⁵ every aspect of our lives.

Today there are more PCs sold annually⁶ in the world than TVs or cars. The typical luxuryautomobile today has 20 to 30 microprocessors⁷ in it, more computing⁸ power by far than wasinside the landing-craft that took the first astronauts to the moon.

Last year there were five times more E-mail messages sent than the number of pieces of papermail delivered worldwide, 2.7 trillion E-mails.

And I got more than my share. There is another way to look at what is going on. In themid-1970s, the first super computers appeared.

They were capable of about 100 million calculations per second. And they cost about onemillion dollars. Today the laptop computer that college students carry in their bags, packs, is twiceas fast as that first super computer, and it costs less than 3000 dollars.

The trend in data storage is even more impressive. In the early 80s, the standard unit ofcomputer storage, one mega-byte, or one million bytes of information, cost about 100 dollars.

Today, it is 10 cents. In two years, it will cost 2 cents.

These gains are driven by continuous advances in how we pack information into smaller andsmaller spaces.

If the US Library of Congress could shrink its collections of 17 million books by the samefactor we just discussed, it could replace 800 kilometers of shelf space with less than 40 meters ofspace.

These advances are going to continue and accelerate the microprocessors, storage,communications, memory, and all the other engines that are propelling this industry or continue tolead to the products of the faster, smaller and less expensive, just as they have for 30 years.

But as we stand here today, the opening of CeBIT, we are on the threshold of a veryimportant change and the evolution of this industry.

In many ways, this industry is about to play out in its most important dimension. That isbecause the technology has become so powerful and so pervasive⁹ that its future impact on peopleand governments and all institutions will dwarf¹⁰ what has happened today.

I believe there are two trends that are most significant here, and bare the closest watching.

The first is what we call deep computing. The term is inspired by our chess-playing supercomputer Deep Blue, which I believe many of you know competed with the Grand Master GaryKasparov last year. Deep Blue is an amazing machine, capable of 200 million moves per second.

But speed, while essential , is not enough. After all, Deep Blue's predecessor¹¹ was quite fast, but itlost to Gary Kasparov two years ago.

The difference in second time around was an infusion¹² of knowledge, human chessknowledge, thousands and thousands of chess moves, games and outcomes, captured asmathematical algorithms . This is what led Deep Blue to mimic¹³ the workings of the human mind,and race through millions of possible chess positions and extract the best one. And it workedrather well. But Deep Blue is emblematic¹⁴ of a whole class of emerging computer systems thatcombine ultra-fast processing with sophisticated analytical¹⁵ software.

Today we are applying these systems to challenges that are far more vital than chess. Let metalk about two important application areas, starting with simulation .

Simulation is about replacing physical things with digital things, recreating reality insidethese powerful computer systems.

The ability to simulate the interaction of chemicals, and do it in the computer rather than intest-tubes and Petri dishes, can speed up by years the discovery and testing of new pharmacy¹⁶.

Mercedes, BMW, Fiat¹⁷, Volvo, all design cars today on computers, no physical markups, nomodels. And aviation does so, and Boeing broke new ground when it designed the 777 airplaneentirely on computers. It was a very bold move, and even some of Boeing's engineers hadtrepidations .

I had trepidations because three month after I joined IBM I went out to Boeing to see mygood friend Frank Schurz, who was the CEO. And Frank said to me, "Since this new airplane wasbuilt on your computers, maybe you should go on the first flight." And I said, "It is my wife'sbirthday." And he said, "I did not even tell you the date yet. Coward!"Computer simulation saves time, saves money, and it gives customers a competitiveadvantage, and it can do more than that. Recently the US department of energy asked IBM to builda gigantic super computer to simulate nuclear weapons so that they will never have to be explodedfor test purposes, ever again.

The second type of deep computing is what we call data mining-some people call it businessintelligence, the ability to extract inside from mountains of information, and see relationships andtrends that previously¹⁸ were not available or invisible.

Banks are looking at spending patterns and other demographic data to see which customersare more profitable over the long haul. Health-care companies are analyzing¹⁹ millions of patientrecords to find hidden indicators²⁰ of disease.

These tools are also helping²¹ slash²² the staggering cost of insurance fraud in the healthcareindustry, which is a hundred- billion- dollar problem in the United States alone. Insurancecompanies can now spot every billion practices. One company in the United States has saved 38million dollars, having invested only 400 thousand in this technology.

In one instance they found a doctor, who was sending a bill once a week for a procedure thatparticular- usually was done once or twice in a life time. At some times the patterns andrelationships that are uncovered are truly baffling. One retail²³ chain discovered the followingcorrelation-for whatever reason, new fathers buy disposable baby diapers and beer on the sameshopping trip. This led to many, many thoughtful ideas not at least which was they never discountdiapers and beer on the same day.

So we believe that deep computing is a trend that will have a profound effect on commerceand on society. Of course, a concept throwing big problems at computers is not a new idea. Itsrules can be traced at the very origins of the industry. The difference today is that the systems areso much more powerful and so much more affordable²⁴ that they can be used by businesses andgovernments and institutions of all sizes.

The second major development in Information Technology is, of course, for a topic, alreadydiscussed here this evening, and that is the rise of global networks, like the Internet to create anetwork world, or what some call a network economy. About 16 million people use the Internettoday. And the estimates are that number will grow to 500 million, and perhaps someday to abillion. Now what are these connected people going to do, or they want to do? Not too long ago,people in my industry thought that the action was going to be an information dissemination²⁵ -news, weathers, sports scores, online magazines called E-zines and short consumer information.

IBM has had a different view for some time. We believe the real potential of the network world isfor conducting transactions of all kinds, between parties of all kinds, an effect that seems to bewhat is happening.

Consider that across Europe Internet sales of about one billion dollars last year are projectedto reach 30 billion dollars by the year 2001. One study says that the worldwide Internet commerceactivity will double, double in the next six month alone. And most of that is business to businesstransactions. We see the total market for Internet commerce hitting 200 billion dollars by the endof the century. And that is a conservative forecast. It is not just about buying and selling. About ayear ago IBM coined the term E-business to describe all the ways that people will derive²⁶ valuefrom the Net. Transactions among employees within the business to prove how products aredeveloped, how ideas are shared, how teams are formed, how work gets done. Transactionbetween a business and its suppliers, its distributors, its retailers²⁷, to increase cycle times, speedand efficiency. And the very important transactions and interactions between governments andcitizens, educators and students, health-care providers and patients. It is a very exciting stuff. Andthe greatest changes and challenges are not in the technology. In fact, connecting to the Net isrelatively easy. The big challenges are in the fundamental transformation²⁸ of the way things getdone in the world.

That is because networks are great levelers . They dissolve barriers to euter the neutralizedtraditional assets like physical stores and branches. Networks dissolve the boundaries within andbetween companies, countries, continents and time-zones. It is not hyperbole to say that thenetwork is quickly emerging as the largest, most dynamic , restless, sleepless²⁹ marketplace of goodservices and ideas the world has ever seen. And naturally this comes with very profoundapplications. For one thing, they are all ready, time-honored processes that govern the way thingswork in the world, the way we buy and sell, the way we distribute things, the way we teach, andthe way we interact with each other. That I will tell you that nearly every one of those conventionsis being challenged by the network world.

参考译文

信息技术的力量

——路易斯·郭士纳

各位晚上好！非常荣幸能够与汉诺威市市长、Yang先生共同出席今晚的会议，非常荣幸能与科尔总理共同度过这个美好的夜晚。

我一直在盼望今晚的到来，因为很多年以前我就知道CeBIT对全球信息技术产业有多么重要。

因此在演讲之前我首先要对你们邀请我参加这个重要的会议表示衷心的感谢。

对于今晚要说的内容我想过很多。一方面，我是作为信息技术产业界的代表出席这次展会，比其它任何技术展览会的规模都大的展会。

我们的工业是一个对很多事情都很拿手的工业，尤其善于庆祝其自己的创造发明。

另一方面，和你们大多数人一样，我的绝大部分职业生涯也是作为这个产业的客户度过的。

因此，我知道一通承诺之后必将是黎明眩目的阳光。客户常常被撇在一边，琢磨着发生了什么事，或者像我们一个非常重要的德国客户的首脑所说的那样，“你们的产业好象对结婚典礼非常在行，但对婚姻却不太懂。”

因此，虽然今晚我要谈谈信息技术的力量和潜力，但是我希望我能够像五年前刚到IBM时一样，站在客户的立场上表达我的观点。

纯技术主宰这次展览会的原因是很简单的，因为现在的纯技术是可以被接受的，是令人惊奇的，而且它已经渗透到了我们生活的各个方面。

现在全世界每年销售的电脑数量比电视机和汽车多。今天典型的豪华汽车中有20到30个微处理器，比那个把第一批宇航员送上月球的登月飞船的计算能力还强。

去年全球发送的电子邮件数量比传统的纸邮件数量多五倍，达到2.7万亿封。

我收到的邮件比我发出去的多。我们还可以从另外一个角度看看现在都发生了些什么事。二十世纪七十年代中期出现了最初的超级计算机，计算能力是大约每秒一亿次，价格大约是一百万美元。而如今大学生的书包里装着的笔记本电脑的计算能力是那种超级计算机的两倍，价格却只有不到3000美元。

数据存储技术的发展趋势更是令人瞠目。八十年代初期，一个标准单位的计算机存储能力，即1MB，或者说1百万字节，售价是100美元，而现在却只要10美分，两年内还将降到2美分。

这种结果是在技术不断进步的推动下产生的，我们可以把信息存储到越来越小的空间。

如果把这种技术用到美国国会图书馆的1700万册存书上，其书架长度将由800公里变成不到40米。

这种进步将继续下去，并且会加速微处理器、存储设备、通信、内存以及所有其它正在推动信息产业前进的“发动机”式的产品的发展，或者会继续创造出更快、更小、更便宜的产品。过去30年的情况就是如此。

然而当我们今天站在这里，出席CeBIT的开幕式的时候，我们面对的是一场业界非常重要的变化和革命。

在很多方面，信息产业将成为最重要的产业。这是因为信息技术已经变得如此强大、如此普遍，以致于未来它对人们、政府和各个机构的影响将使目前发生的事相形见绌。

我认为现在有两个最重要的趋势，需要我们密切关注。

第一个我们称之为深入计算（deep computing）。这个术语是在我们会下国际象棋的超级计算机“深蓝”的启发下得到的。我相信很多人都知道，去年它与国际象棋特级大师卡斯帕罗夫进行过对抗赛。“深蓝”是一台令人吃惊的机器，它具备每秒2亿步的计算能力。速度虽然是必要的，但是仅有速度是不够的。不管怎么说，“深蓝”的前身的计算速度是相当快的，但两年前它还是败给了卡斯帕罗夫。

第二次比赛的不同之处在于，第二次比赛是一次给“深蓝”灌输知识的比赛。人类的国际象棋知识、成千上万步的步法、行棋顺序及结果都被提炼为数学算法。正是这些东西使得“深蓝”能够模仿人类的思想行为，从上百万可能的布局中选出其中最好的一种，而且干得相当不错。“深蓝”实际上是所有正在浮现的将复杂的分析软件与超高速处理能力结合在一起的计算机系统的象征。

如今我们正把这些系统应用到比国际象棋更重要的挑战上。我来说说两个重要的应用领域吧，首先是计算机仿真。

仿真是一种用数字的东西代替实际的东西的技术，在强大的计算机系统中重建现实世界。

如果我们能模仿化学元素之间的相互作用，用计算机而不是用试管和培养皿做试验，我们将可以几年几年的缩短新品种的发现和测试时间。

梅塞德斯、宝马、菲亚特、沃尔沃……现在都在计算机上设计汽车，不再需要实际制作模型。航空工业也是这些技术的积极倡导者，波音公司破天荒地将777飞机的设计完全在计算机上完成。这是一个非常大胆的举动。甚至是一些波音的工程师都感到恐慌。

我也感到恐慌，因为在我加入IBM三个月后去拜访我的好朋友波音公司CEO Frank时，Frank对我说：“既然这种新飞机是在你们的计算机上建造的，那么也许你应该参加它的首次试飞。”我回答说：“那天是我妻子的生日。”他说：“可是我还没告诉你试飞的日期呢。

胆小鬼！”

计算机模拟能够节省时间、节省费用、能使用户更具竞争力，它还能做更多的事。最近美国能源部要求IBM建造一台巨型超级计算机用以模拟核武器，这样他们就再也不用进行核爆炸试验了。

第二种深入计算我们称之为数据分析处理——有些人称之为商业情报处理，即从大量信息中提炼出有用情报，并分析出以前得不到或看不见的各种关系和发展趋势。

银行分析消费模式和其它统计数据，以弄清哪些客户长期的收益状况较好。医疗企业分析成百万的病例以从中发现隐藏的疾病迹象。

这些工具还有助于削减卫生保健产业中惊人的保险欺骗损失，仅在美国这个损失就高达上千亿美元。保险公司现在能够发现任何欺诈行为。有一家美国公司仅在这种技术上投资40万美元就减少了3800万美元的损失。

有一次他们发现一个医生每周都要送来一份医疗检查帐单，而其中的一些项目一生也只会做一次或两次。有时发现的一些情况和关系着实令人难以理解。有一家零售连锁店发现了如下的相关联系：不管出于什么原因，新爸爸们总是在购物中同时购买一次性婴儿尿片和啤酒。这一点引发了很多很多很有思想的想法，例如他们从不同时对尿片和啤酒打折。

我们相信深入计算是一个将对商业和社会产生深远影响的趋势。当然把难题扔向计算机的观念并不新鲜。它可以追溯到这种产业刚出现的时代。但是今天的不同之处是现在的系统非常强大，价格又极为公道，以致于能够在各种商业和政府部门、各种科研机构中广泛应用。

就像今天晚上已经谈到的，信息技术第二个重要的发展是全球网络的崛起，比如互联网，它创造了一个网上世界，也有些人称之为网上经济。如今有1600万人使用互联网。估计这个数字很快就会升至5亿，也许有一天还会达到10亿。那么这些上网的人打算做些什么，或者说想做些什么呢？不久以前，我们这个领域的人认为网上活动将会是信息发布——新闻、天气预报、体育比分、在线杂志（被称作E-zine）以及简短的消费信息。IBM对此持不同观点已经有一段时间了。我们认为网络世界的真正潜力在于引导所有不同团体之间的不同种类的交易，网上现在正在发生的情况似乎就是如此。

跨欧洲的互联网上的销售额去年是10亿美元，到2001年将达到300亿美元。一项研究表明，世界范围内的互联网商业活动仅在未来6个月里就将翻一番。其中绝大多数是商业团体之间的交易。我们认为本世纪末互联网商业的全部市场将会达到2000亿美元。这还只是保守的估计。我们说的不仅仅是买和卖的问题。大约一年以前，IBM创造了一个术语E-business （电子商务）描述所有人们得以从网上获取价值的方式。企业雇员之间的交流将验证如何开发产品、如何共享观念、如何形成小组、如何完成工作。企业与其它供应商、分销商、零售商之间的交流将加快资金循环次数、速度和效率。另外政府与市民、教育者和学生、医疗工作者和病人之间的交流和交互作用也非常重要。这种情况令人非常激动。

最重要的变化和挑战并不是技术方面。实际上，连接到互联网上相对来说很简单。大的挑战来自于这个世界运行方式的基本变革。

网络是伟大的平均主义者。网络消除了所有进入那些受限制的传统产业——比如实际的商店和分店的障碍。网络消解了各个企业、各个国家、各个大陆和时区内部以及它们之间的界限。可以毫不夸张的说，网络正在迅速成为一个前所未有的最大、最为活跃、从不平静和从不休息的业务和思想的市场。自然这也将带来一些意义深远的应用。我们买卖的方式、分销的方式、教育的方式以及互相交往的方式，我得说几乎传统观念中的每一方面都在受到网络世界的挑战。