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Weather researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to improve existing weather prediction methods. But, experts say the AI tools currently face limitations and should be used along with traditional prediction methods to be most effective.
AI systems trained to predict, or forecast, weather events are now being used by many government agencies and organizations worldwide. Such systems aim to produce weather predictions faster and at a lower cost than traditional forecasting methods.
One weather predicting system that has shown promise is the Google-financed GraphCast method. This machine learning-based system trains directly on weather data that has already been collected and examined. Such methods have demonstrated an ability to outperform traditional forecasting systems.
The system works by combining past weather predictions with modern forecasting models to provide the most complete picture of weather and climate.
In Europe, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been using AI prediction tools since January. The organization provides detailed weather forecasts four times per day to nations across Europe.
The ECMWF technology is called the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS). The group describes the system as a "data-driven" forecasting model. It is designed to make many predictions quickly, including for extreme events involving powerful storms and heatwaves.
AI-supported data from the ECMWF correctly predicted intense rains last month across parts of Europe that resulted in widespread flooding. But while the predictions were right, destruction caused by the flooding could not be avoided.
Experts told Reuters this is largely because it is still difficult to gather and fully utilize some collected weather data. In addition, there is a need to strengthen and improve current AI models used to predict weather.
Andrew Charlton-Perez is a professor of meteorology - the scientific study of weather processes - at the University of Reading in Britain. He told Reuters, "In some cases and for some variables, AI models can beat physics-based models, but in other cases vice versa."
Charlton-Perez said one problem is that the effectiveness of an AI model is based on the information it is given. Weather disasters can be harder to predict if there is too little data to enter into AI systems. This can also be true if extreme events happen repeatedly at different times of the year or in different areas.
Charlton-Perez said he thinks the best use of AI-based weather forecasts would be to use them in combination with traditional weather predicting tools. This, he noted, could utilize AI data to produce weather predictions based on large sets of information collected from multiple sources.
Thomas Wostal is with the weather observatory GeoSphere in Austria. He told Reuters his group's models correctly predicted 300 to 400 millimeters of local rains in September. And records show that same amount actually fell in the storms.
But scientists say even in cases where predictions are correct, effective communication is needed to get the information out to communities and local officials so they can effectively prepare.
Shruti Nath is a research assistant in weather prediction and climate at Britain's Oxford University. She told Reuters, "I think what happened with (the recent floods) ... is that it's so rare - a one in 150- to 200-year event - that even if the weather models capture it, there's a reasonable degree of uncertainty."
Nath said AI-supported forecasts need to be clearly communicated to the public in a way that warns of the severity and possible destruction of extreme events. This way, people might see the importance of taking action before severe weather happens in order to prevent costly cleanup and recovery efforts.
Words in This Story
utilize - v. to use something in an effective way
variable - n. a number, amount or situation that can change
vice versa - adv. used to say that what you have just said is also the true in the opposite way
0 weather | |
n.天气,气候,气象;经历...而幸存 | |
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0 using | |
v.使用( use的现在分词 );利用;耗费;吸(毒)n.使用;利用;用途;使用权 | |
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0 most | |
adj.最多的(many,much的最高级) | |
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0 trained | |
adj.训练过的,受训的v.训练,锻炼,培养( train的过去式和过去分词 );教育;使(植物)朝某方向生长;[园艺学]修剪 | |
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0 faster | |
adj.更快的;快的( fast的比较级 );走得快;感光快的;[摄影术]快动作的(镜头)adv.更快地 | |
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0 shown | |
v.给…看( show的过去分词 );表现出;显露出;上演 | |
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0 trains | |
n.列车( train的名词复数 );行列;后果;顺序v.训练,锻炼,培养( train的第三人称单数 );教育;使(植物)朝某方向生长;[园艺学]修剪 | |
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0 collected | |
adj.镇定的;收集成的v.收集( collect的过去式和过去分词) | |
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0 past | |
n.过去,昔时,往事,早年经历,过去时;adj.过去的,结束的,卸任的,过去时的;prep.越过,晚于,超越,超出...的可能性(能力、范围等);pass的过去分词 | |
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0 models | |
n.模型( model的名词复数 );模特儿;模式;典型 | |
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0 January | |
n.一月 | |
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0 called | |
v.叫( call的过去式和过去分词 );通电话;认为;估计 | |
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0 group | |
n.小组,这里指演出流行一组演员 | |
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0 model | |
n.模型,模范,模特儿;adj.模范的,作模型用的;v.做模型,塑造,模仿 | |
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0 quickly | |
adv.很快地,迅速地 | |
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0 month | |
n.月,月份 | |
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0 because | |
conj.由于,因为 | |
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0 still | |
adj.静止的,寂静的;adv.还,仍然;更;安静地 | |
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0 difficult | |
adj.困难的,艰难的,不容易的 | |
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0 need | |
vt.需要,要;aux.必须,不得不;n.需要,必要;需用的东西,需求 | |
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0 study | |
vt.学习;研究;细看;vi.读书;n.学习;研究 | |
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0 cases | |
n.案例;病例( case的名词复数 );(需特别对待或注意的)人;事例;容器 | |
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0 harder | |
n.压帽坯机adj.困难的( hard的比较级 );硬的;有力的;努力的 | |
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0 also | |
adv.也,亦;并且;同样;而且,还 | |
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0 happen | |
vi.发生;碰巧,偶然;巧遇,偶然发现 | |
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0 different | |
adj.不同的,有区别的,不一致的 | |
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0 year | |
n.年,年度,学年;adj./adv.每年,一年一次 | |
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0 best | |
adj.最好的(good和well最高级);adv.最好地;最 | |
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0 use | |
v.使用;n.用途,利用 | |
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0 large | |
adj.大的,大量的,宽大的 | |
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0 September | |
n.九月 | |
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0 show | |
v.出示;告知;n.展览(会);演出,节目 | |
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0 needed | |
需要 | |
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0 happened | |
vi.happen的过去式,表示已发生的,发生过的。v.发生( happen的过去式和过去分词 );碰巧;产生结果;(向对方表示异议或不悦等) | |
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0 it's | |
(=it is;it has) | |
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0 there's | |
there is | |
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0 way | |
n.路,道路;方法,手段 | |
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0 people | |
n.人们,人;(the-)人民;一国人民,民族 | |
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0 before | |
prep./conj.在…以前 | |
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0 happens | |
v.发生( happen的第三人称单数 );碰巧;产生结果;(向对方表示异议或不悦等) | |
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0 words | |
n.字( word的名词复数 );(说的)话;诺言;口令 | |
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0 something | |
pron.某事,某物;被视为有意义的事物 | |
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0 number | |
n.数(字,量),号码,数(值) | |
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0 change | |
n.变化;零钱;vt.改变;更换;vi.变化;更换 | |
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0 artificial | |
adj.人工的,人造的,人为的;做作的,假装的 | |
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0 limitations | |
n.局限,不足之处 | |
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0 agencies | |
n.代理( agency的名词复数 );服务机构;(政府的)专门机构;代理(或经销)业务(或关系) | |
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0 demonstrated | |
举行示威游行(或集会)( demonstrate的过去式和过去分词 ); 示范。展示; 显示; 论证 | |
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0 works | |
n.作品,著作;工厂,活动部件,机件 | |
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0 intense | |
adj.认真的,专注的;强烈的;紧张的;热情的 | |
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0 destruction | |
n.破坏,毁灭,消灭 | |
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0 largely | |
adv.大部分,主要地 | |
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0 variables | |
n.可变因素,变数( variable的名词复数 ) | |
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0 repeatedly | |
adv.重复地,再三地 | |
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0 combination | |
n.组合,合并,联合; | |
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0 multiple | |
adj.多个(或多项、多种)的;n.(数)倍数 | |
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0 millimeters | |
n.毫米( millimeter的名词复数 ) | |
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0 capture | |
vt.捕获,俘获;占领,夺得;n.抓住,捕获 | |
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0 recovery | |
n.恢复,痊愈;追回,寻回,收复 | |
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0 variable | |
adj.多变的;可变的;n.可变因素,变量 | |
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0 intelligence | |
n.智力,聪明,智能;情报 | |
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0 prediction | |
n.预言;预测 | |
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0 predict | |
v.预知,预言,预报 | |
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0 predictions | |
n.预言,预言的事物( prediction的名词复数 ) | |
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0 lower | |
adj.较低的;地位较低的,低等的;低年级的;下游的;vt.放下,降下,放低;减低 | |
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0 predicting | |
预言,预测,预示( predict的现在分词 ) | |
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0 directly | |
adv.直接地,径直地;马上,立即 | |
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0 extreme | |
adj.末端的,尽头的;极度的,极端的;n.极度,最大程度 | |
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0 powerful | |
adj.有力的,有权力的,强大的 | |
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0 predicted | |
预言,预测,预示( predict的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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0 widespread | |
adj.广布的,普及的,流传宽广的 | |
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0 strengthen | |
vt.加强,变坚固;vi.变强,股票上涨 | |
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0 current | |
n.涌流,趋势,电流,水流,气流;adj.当前的,通用的,流通的,现在的,草写的,最近的 | |
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0 sources | |
原因( source的名词复数 ); [物理学]源; 来源; 起源 | |
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0 Austria | |
n.奥地利(欧洲国家) | |
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0 effectively | |
adv.有效地,有力地,实际上 | |
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0 rare | |
adj.稀罕的,罕有的,珍贵的,稀薄的,半熟的,非常的;adv.非常 | |
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0 warns | |
v.警告( warn的第三人称单数 );提醒;告诫;预先通知 | |
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0 severity | |
n.严格,严重,激烈 | |
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0 severe | |
adj.严格的,凶猛的,严肃的,严重的,严厉的,朴素的 | |
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0 systems | |
n.[物理化学]系( system的名词复数 );制度;身体;系统 | |
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0 improve | |
v.改良,改善,增进,提高 | |
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0 tools | |
n.工具( tool的名词复数 );(有助于做工或完成某事的)用具;受人利用的人 | |
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0 along | |
adv.一道,一起;prep.沿着,顺着 | |
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0 traditional | |
adj.传统的,惯例的 | |
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0 events | |
n.事件;事件,大事( event的名词复数 );运动项目 | |
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0 government | |
n.政府,当局,行政管理机构 | |
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0 organizations | |
n.组织( organization的名词复数 );组织性;组织工作;安排 | |
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0 such | |
adj.如此的,这样的;pron.这样的;adv.如此地 | |
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0 aim | |
n.目标,对准;v.对准目标,打算 | |
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0 produce | |
n.产品,农作物;vt.生产,提出,引起,分娩,制片;vi.生产,制造 | |
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0 cost | |
n.价钱,费用,成本;损失,牺牲 | |
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0 system | |
n.系统,体系,制度,方式,秩序,分类原则 | |
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0 promise | |
n.诺言,约定,希望;v.允诺,约定,预示 | |
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0 machine | |
n.机器,机械装置,机械般工作的人;v.以机器制造;(计算机)机器 | |
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0 already | |
adv.已经 | |
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0 ability | |
n.能力;才能;才智 | |
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0 modern | |
n.现代人,有思想的人;adj.现代的,时髦的 | |
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0 provide | |
vi.供给,提供;vt.提供;规定;准备 | |
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0 complete | |
adj.彻底的,完整的,已完成的;v.完成,使完整 | |
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0 Europe | |
n.欧洲 | |
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0 European | |
adj.欧洲的,发生在欧洲的;n.欧洲人 | |
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0 center | |
n.中心,中央;vi.居中;vt.使集中 | |
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0 since | |
adv.后来;conj.既然,因为,自从;prep.自从 | |
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0 organization | |
n.组织;机构;团体 | |
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0 provides | |
v.提供,供给,供应( provide的第三人称单数 );规定;提供[(+for)];装备 | |
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0 across | |
adv.横过,使...被理解(或接受);prep.穿过,横过 | |
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0 technology | |
n.技术,工艺(学) | |
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0 describes | |
v.描写( describe的第三人称单数 );叙述;画出(图形等);形容 | |
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0 as | |
conj.按照;如同 | |
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0 designed | |
adj.故意的,有计划的,特意的 | |
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0 including | |
prep.包含,包括 | |
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0 storms | |
n.暴风雨[雪]( storm的名词复数 );(因激动或兴奋而爆发出的)暴风雨般的声音;强烈如暴(风)雨般的东西;(群情迸发的)浪潮 | |
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0 correctly | |
adv.正确地;实事求是 | |
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0 parts | |
n.部( part的名词复数 );一部分;零件;角色 | |
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0 resulted | |
v.发生( result的过去式和过去分词 );导致;随着发生;结果发生 | |
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0 flooding | |
n.泛滥;[化]溢流;[医]血崩;产后出血v.淹没(flood的现在分词);充满;溢出 | |
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0 while | |
conj.当…的时候;而;虽然;尽管 n.一会儿 | |
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0 caused | |
人为的 | |
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0 could | |
v.能,可能(can的过去式);aux.v.(can的过去式)能;可以 | |
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0 university | |
n.大学 | |
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0 Britain | |
n.英国;不列颠(英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰) | |
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0 beat | |
n.打,敲打声,拍子;v.打,打败 | |
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0 said | |
v.动词say的过去式、过去分词 | |
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0 problem | |
n.问题;难题 | |
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0 information | |
n.起诉;信息,消息;知识;报告,通知,情报 | |
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0 given | |
adj.赠予的,沉溺的,特定的,假设的;vbl.give的过去分词 | |
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0 enter | |
vt.进入,参加,开始;vi.进去,参加;n.回车键,输入,回车 | |
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0 true | |
a.真实,不假的;忠实,可靠的;正确无误的 | |
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0 areas | |
地区,区域(area 的复数形式);面积;领域 | |
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0 would | |
aux.will的过去式;愿,要;常常;大概;将要,会 | |
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0 sets | |
n.凝固( set的名词复数 );(一)套;布景;集v.放( set的第三人称单数 );安插;树立;安排 | |
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0 local | |
adj.地方性的,当地的,局部的;乡土的;本地的;n.当地居民,本地新闻 | |
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0 records | |
n.记录( record的名词复数 );经历;(有关过去的)事实;最好的成绩v.记录,录音,拍摄( record的第三人称单数 );标明;发表正式(或法律方面的)声明;演奏音乐供录制 | |
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0 amount | |
n.数量,总额;v.总计,等于 | |
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0 actually | |
adv.实际上,事实上,竟然,居然,如今 | |
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0 fell | |
vbl.fall的过去式,vt.击倒,打倒(疾病等),致于...死地,砍伐;n.一季所伐的木材,兽皮,羊毛;adj.凶猛的,可怕的 | |
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0 scientists | |
n.科学家( scientist的名词复数 ) | |
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0 even | |
adj.平坦的,偶数的,相等的;adv.甚至,恰好,正当 | |
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0 correct | |
adj.正确的;vi.改正,纠正;vt.改正 | |
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0 prepare | |
vt.为...做好准备,整合;vi.做好准备 | |
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0 assistant | |
n.助手,助理,助教;adj.有帮助的,辅助的,副的 | |
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0 recent | |
adj.近来的,新近的 | |
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0 event | |
n.事变,大事件 | |
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0 degree | |
n.学位,等级,程度,度数 | |
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0 clearly | |
adj.清楚的;adv. 清楚地 | |
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0 communicated | |
v.传达,表达( communicate的过去式和过去分词 );通讯;交际;相连 | |
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0 public | |
adj.公开的,众所周知的,公众的;n.公共场合,公众,同好者 | |
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0 possible | |
adj.可能的 | |
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0 might | |
aux./v.(may的过去式)可能;可以,允许 | |
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0 action | |
n.动作;情节;作用;举动 | |
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0 order | |
n.订单;命令;n.顺序,整齐;勋章;阶级,决议;vt.命令; 调整;定购 | |
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0 prevent | |
v.预防,防止 | |
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0 situation | |
n.情形;境遇;位置 | |
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0 existing | |
adj.目前的;现存的v.存在( exist的现在分词);持续存在 | |
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0 methods | |
n.method的复数:方法;方法( method的名词复数 );方法论;教学法;分类法 | |
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0 experts | |
n.专家,能手( expert的名词复数 );权威;行家,高手;熟练者 | |
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0 used | |
adj.用旧了的,旧的;习惯于…;过去惯/经常 | |
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0 effective | |
adj.有效的,有力的,实际的;n.有生力量 | |
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0 forecast | |
n./vt.预测;预报 | |
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0 being | |
n.存在;生存;生命存在,生命,人, 本质;art.在,有,是 | |
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0 worldwide | |
adj.全世界的,全世界范围的;adv.在全世界,遍及全世界 | |
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0 forecasting | |
n.预测v.预言,预报( forecast的现在分词 ) | |
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0 method | |
n.方法,办法;类函数,类成员函数(计算机) | |
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0 data | |
n.数据,论据,资料 | |
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0 examined | |
v.仔细检查( examine的过去式和过去分词 );考试;审查 | |
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0 combining | |
n.结合性的,化合的v.(使)联合( combine的现在分词 );兼有;兼备;使融合(或并存) | |
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0 climate | |
n.气候,民意状况,社会趋势,风土 | |
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0 forecasts | |
n.预测,预报( forecast的名词复数 )v.预言,预报( forecast的第三人称单数 ) | |
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0 per | |
prep.每,每一,根据,按照;由,经,以,靠 | |
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0 nations | |
n.国家( nation的名词复数 );民族;国民 | |
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0 involving | |
表明(某人参与了罪行等)( involve的现在分词 ); 使参与; 牵涉; 使专心于 | |
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0 avoided | |
v.避开,避免,预防( avoid的过去式和过去分词 );[法律]宣布(判决、抗辩等)无效;使无效;废止,撤销 | |
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0 gather | |
vt.使聚集,使聚拢;采集,搜集,收;渐增,积聚,恢复;推测;vi.聚集,聚拢;增加 | |
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0 addition | |
n.加法;附加,附加物,增加部分,加 | |
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0 professor | |
n.教授,公开表示信仰的人 | |
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0 scientific | |
adj.科学的;符合科学规律的,精确的 | |
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0 processes | |
n.过程( process的名词复数 );工序;做事方法;工艺流程v.加工( process的第三人称单数 );处理;审阅;审核 | |
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0 reading | |
n.阅读,知识,读物,表演,对法律条文的解释;adj.阅读的 | |
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0 effectiveness | |
n.有效,有力;有效性;效益;效用 | |
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0 based | |
v.立基于 | |
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0 disasters | |
n.灾难( disaster的名词复数 );彻底的失败;不幸;祸患 | |
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0 communication | |
n.交流;通讯;通信 | |
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0 communities | |
n.团体( community的名词复数 );共有;大众;(国家之间经济、政治)共同体 | |
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0 officials | |
n.行政官员( official的名词复数 ) | |
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0 research | |
n.探索;调查;研究 vt./vi.调查;研究 | |
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0 reasonable | |
adj.合理的,有道理的;通情达理的,公道的 | |
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0 importance | |
n.重要性,重大,价值 | |
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0 efforts | |
n.努力( effort的名词复数 );气力;努力的结果;努力(或艰难尝试)的成果 | |
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0 currently | |
adv.通常地,普遍地,当前 | |
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0 detailed | |
adj.详细的,详尽的,极注意细节的,完全的 | |
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0 utilize | |
vt.使用,利用 | |
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0 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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0 observatory | |
n.天文台,气象台,瞭望台,观测台 | |
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0 Oxford | |
n.牛津(英国城市) | |
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0 uncertainty | |
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物 | |
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0 fully | |
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地 | |
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0 vice | |
n.坏事;恶习;[pl.]台钳,老虎钳;adj.副的 | |
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0 costly | |
adj.昂贵的,价值高的,豪华的 | |
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