VOA标准英语2013--西奈安全局势依旧捉摸不定

（单词翻译）

Despite Crackdown, Sinai Security Remains¹ Elusive² 西奈安全局势依旧捉摸不定

CAIRO — Egypt's military is in the midst of a massive crackdown on Islamist militants³ in Sinai, but results so far are mixed.

Egyptian authorities are hailing as a success their biggest military operation in Sinai in decades. 

For supporters of the military-backed government, the projected months-long crackdown is a direct counter-offensive to the polices of ousted⁵ President Mohamad Morsi. 

"[It's] very much unstable⁶ thanks to Mr. Morsi, the previous president, who released thousands of Islamic fanatics⁷ from Egyptian jail by presidential declaration.  All of them went to Sinai,  and thanks to him again because he allowed al-Qaida to come to Sinai," said former intelligence officer and security analyst⁸ Sameh Seif al-Yazal.

The situation in the strategic region, extending from the Suez Canal to the borders of Israel and Gaza, has been dire⁴ for years: underdeveloped, open to criminal gangs and, more recently, weapons from Libya.

And for all the blaming of the last president, Sinai security was also the responsibility of Morsi's defense⁹ minister, General Abdel Fatah el-Sissi, the de facto national leader.

With the nation's “war on terror” the narrative¹⁰ has changed, and Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood¹¹ and Sinai's jihadi militants have become one. 

“The army, in its attempt to assert itself as the protector of the nation, as caring, you know, about the core interests that Morsi had abandoned, needs to do a better job in the Sinai,” said Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

State television replays countless¹² images of the army closing illegal tunnels to Gaza, clearing areas near the border and attacking Jihadist positions.  It's hard to confirm how well the operation is going.  One of the few journalists there, Ahmed Abu Deraa, contradicted government claims of success.  He is now on trial for reporting false news.

But one factor is clearing going the army's way, relations with Israel, whose leaders were wary¹³ of Morsi. 

"The Egyptian military is actually happy that Israel supported its coup¹⁴, or, you know, did not vocally¹⁵ oppose what happened on July 3rd," said analyst Hokayem.

As for Suez, Egypt also has international backing in keeping it secure.  Despite recent reports of a failed attack on the key shipping¹⁶ lane, retired¹⁷ general al-Yazal believes it is firmly under control.   

“Suez Canal is under severe protection as well as severe measures.  The army, they know quite well they cannot joke with Suez Canal,” he said.

But the security crackdown may create some problems of its own, namely further recruitment of militants from across the region.

"Just like the repression¹⁸ against the Muslim Brotherhood is not going to help create a more inclusive and stable Egypt, going hard into the Sinai may well exacerbate¹⁹  problems in the medium term," said analyst Hokayem.

Analysts²⁰ say any long-term security must be based on political dialogue and economic investment - both commodities in short supply in tense and troubled Egypt.