经济学人25:埃克-巴蒂斯塔 巴蒂斯塔的出击

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　　商业。

　　Eike Batista.

　　埃克-巴蒂斯塔。

　　Batista battered¹.

　　巴蒂斯塔的出击。

　　The dwindling² fortune of a Brazilian magnate.

　　一位巴西商业巨头的财产缩水。

　　INVESTORS⁴ have lost their appetite for Brazil in recent months, as costs have risen and growth has stalled. Suddenly, profiting from the country's bountiful natural wealth and burgeoning⁵ middle class looks harder. For Brazil's best-known businessman, the shift in sentiment has been abrupt⁶. In March Eike Batista (pictured) was seventh in Forbes's ranking of the world's super-rich, with a personal fortune of $30 billion. The firms he founded and listed, most in commodities and infrastructure⁷, were valued at $44 billion.

　　由于成本的增加以及增长的停滞，数月来，投资者已经失去在巴西投资的兴趣。突然间，从这个国家丰富的自然资源和激增的中产阶级两个方面获利看起来更加困难。对巴西最富盛名的商人来说，态度的转变显得很突然。在三月发布的福布斯全球富豪榜上，埃克-巴蒂斯塔列第七位，他拥有300亿美元的个人财产。他创立和名下的公司市值440亿美元，多数在商品和基础设施等行业。

　　The most recent rich list reckons that Mr Batista is now down to his last $14.5 billion-46th globally. His listed firms are worth a mere⁸ $18 billion. Mr Batista listed some of his companies when they were not much more than an idea. With buckets of bravado⁹, he persuaded investors that his firms had boundless¹⁰ potential, and that he was the man to unlock it.

　　最近一期富豪榜预测，巴蒂斯塔的资产目前降低到仅剩145亿美元——列全球第46位。他名下的公司仅价值180亿美元。在他的一些公司仅仅是一个规划时，巴蒂斯塔就使其上市。通过大肆虚张声势，他说服投资者相信他的公司拥有无尽的潜力，而他正是这种释放潜力的人。

　　Then came the crunch¹¹. In June OGX, his oil firm, slashed¹² output targets for two offshore¹³ wells from 20,000 barrels a day each to about 5,000. That knocked 7 billion reais ($3.4 billion) off its shares in a day, and spread panic across the group.

　　随后发生了危机。六月，他的石油公司OGX减少了两座海上油井的产量目标，每个油井从每天的2万桶减少到5千桶。这使得OGX公司的股票在一天内缩水70亿雷亚尔（34亿美元），并使恐慌扩展到整个集团。

　　OGX's wells made up a large part of the revenues of EBX, the holding company for Mr Batista's stakes in his listed firms. The main asset of LLX, another part of EBX, is the port of A?u. This is nicely placed for shipping¹⁴ iron ore from the inland state of Minas Gerais to China and for handling rigs and ships working Brazil's vast oilfields-but it is still being built. MMX digs plenty of iron ore out of the ground-but not at a profit.

　　控股公司EBX集团被巴蒂斯塔用来控制管理名下的公司，而OGX的油井正是EBX集团收入的很大一部分来源。LLX公司是EBX集团的另一部分，它的主要财产是阿苏港。阿苏港的地理位置非常好，它适合于将内陆省份Minas Gerais州的铁矿石装运到中国，同样，适合于处理巴西众多油气田上工作的钻井平台和船舶——但阿苏港仍然在建设中。MMX公司从地下开采出大量的铁矿石——但并没有盈利。

　　The links between EBX's various parts compounded Mr Batista's woes¹⁵. He planned to make money from Brazil's mineral wealth at every stage in the supply chain. One of his ventures generated electricity from coal and gas supplied by another; a third shipped the oil and iron ore owned by a fourth and fifth, and so on. But OGX underpinned¹⁶ the lot.

　　EBX集团中不同部分的联系构成的巴蒂斯塔的困境。他计划从巴西矿产资源供应链的每个环节中获利。他的一家公司通过煤和燃气来发电，而煤和燃气是有另一家公司提供。第三家公司运送石油和铁矿石，这些石油和铁矿石由第四和第五家公司拥有，等等。但OGX公司巩固了自己的份额。

　　One part of Mr Batista's empire, OSX, has ridden out the bearish¹⁷ mood. It looks likely to do lots of business with Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil giant, building and maintaining ships and rigs. Petrobras has been out of favour with investors since 2010, when the government diluted¹⁸ minority shareholders¹⁹ in an oil-for-shares deal. But Gra?a Foster, its boss, seems willing to stand up to the government, arguing publicly for a rise in the (government-controlled) price of petrol. And the government is no longer so hostile to private firms building infrastructure (see article). So those keen to buy into commodities and infrastructure may soon have more options-which will hardly help the EBX companies' share prices recover.

　　作为巴蒂斯塔商业帝国的一部分，OSX公司承受住了萧条环境的考验。它很有可能与Petrobras公司进行大量的交易，集中在建设和维护船舶和钻井平台等方面。Petrobras公司是巴西国有控股的石油巨头，自2010年以来，它就不再受投资者青眯，那时，政府通过石油换股权交易减少了少数股东。但公司的老板Gra?a Foster似乎愿意勇敢的面对政府，他公开要求提高（政府控制的）石油价格。而且针对私有的基础设施建设公司，政府不再怀有那么大的敌意。因此，渴望进入商品和基础设施行业的私有公司可能很快会有更多的选择——这将不可避免的促进EBX所属公司的股票的复苏。

　　Mr Batista claims not to be worried. "Since I haven't sold a single share, I've lost nothing," he tweeted. Investors are probably less sanguine²⁰, though many old Brazil hands, used to rocky rides, are waiting out the worst. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, a Canadian pension fund that is LLX's largest investor³ after Mr Batista himself, seems serene²¹. It wants to join Mr Batista in his plans to take the firm private again.

　　巴蒂斯塔宣称不需要担忧。他在推特上说道："因为我没有卖出任何股票，我没有损失任何东西。"投资者可能不会这样乐观，尽管很多有在巴西投资经营的人正等待着走出困境。安大略教师养老基金表现得很平静，它是一家加拿大养老基金，并是LLX公司除巴蒂斯塔以外的最大股东。它愿意加入巴蒂斯塔的计划，促进Petrobras公司再次私有化。

　　Presumably Mr Batista thinks that LLX is now undervalued-and that a show of self-confidence would not be misplaced. "If the markets don't want me, I still want me," he recently told Exame, a Brazilian business magazine. Like other great salesmen, Mr Batista sold not the sausage, but the sizzle. Now investors are balking²² at the idea of a long wait before mouth-watering returns materialise.

　　我们可以推断，巴蒂斯塔认为LLX公司的市值目前是被低估的，而且自信心的展示没有不合时宜。他最近对一家巴西商业杂志Exame说："如果市场不需要我，那么我仍然需要我自己。像其他伟大的推销员一样，巴蒂斯塔销售的不是香肠，而是激情。在诱人的前景转化为现实之前，投资者正在回避漫长的等待。

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