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经济学人72:全球房价

时间：2014-01-26 03:01:30

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 　　HOUSING markets are prone1 to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting then undershooting sustainable levels. To work out whether they are over- or undervalued, The Economist2 uses two gauges3. One assesses affordability4 by comparing prices with disposable income. The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents. If these ratios are higher than their historical averages (since the mid-1970s) property is overvalued; if they are lower it is undervalued. On this basis, Canada’s house prices are bubbly whereas Japan’s are undeservedly flat (see table).

　　房地产市场容易在可持续水平上下波动从而形成涨跌周期。为了衡量房价被高估还是低估，经济学人采用了两种测量方法。第一种是比较可支配收入与房价水平，第二种是考虑租金与房价的关系。如果这些比率高于自70年代中期以来的历史平均值，那么房地产市场就被高估了。如果低于历史水平，那么房地产市场被低估了。基于此，加拿大的房价有泡沫，而日本的房价则出奇的稳定。（见表）
　　America’s formerly5 stricken market has rebounded6: house prices have risen by 12.1% over the past year. But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervalued against income. A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reserve will shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.
　　美国曾经低迷的市场有所起色：过去一年房价上涨了12.1%。但是恢复似乎有点过于平静，因为与收入挂钩的话，房价明显过低。自从五月以来的抵押贷款利率激增，这标志着美联储短期内将会放缓房地产购买节奏，这可能放缓经济繁荣的步伐。
　　Britain’s recovery is built on shakier foundations. House-price growth has picked up in recent months to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are still overstretched. The market is being buoyed7 through a subsidy8 scheme that lowers funding costs for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers.
　　英国的复苏建立在极不稳定的基础上。近几个月房价已增长了3.9%，尽管估价仍就过高，但是未来还有加速增长的趋势。房地产市场的好转由补贴政策支撑。补贴政策降低抵押贷款者的花费，对低收入者有特殊帮助方法。
　　Despite favourable9 valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest 2.2%. The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably10 in southern Europe (Spanish prices are down by 8.2% in the past year) but also in some northern countries (Dutch prices have fallen by 8.5%). The French market is also depressed11. Valuations remain stretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008. But the recent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.
　　尽管估价较好，但是日本的房价持续下落，最新数据显示下降了2.2%。表现最差的市场在欧洲，最差的在南欧（西班牙房价在过去一年中下降了8.2%）。但是在北欧也有表现很差的国家（荷兰的房价下降了8.5%）。法国的房地产市场也很低迷。尽管自2008年以来西班牙的房价已经下降了30%，但是其估价仍就过高。然而最近数据显示，爱尔兰房地产市场在房价暴跌49%以后看起来稳定了不少。
　　Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy12. Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster13 domestic demand and help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.
　　其他地方则有好消息，尤其是在德国，德国避开了危机前的房产狂热。在过去的一年里，德国房价上涨了5.1%，扩大了国内需求并有利于欧元区的经济复苏。

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1 prone 50bzu     
adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的
参考例句：
  • Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
  • He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。
2 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人
参考例句：
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。
3 gauges 29872e70c0d2a7366fc47f04800f1362     
n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分
参考例句：
  • A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》
4 affordability b765fd6126db9695d9d5b74d209e7527     
可购性
参考例句：
  • Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
  • There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。
5 formerly ni3x9     
adv.从前，以前
参考例句：
  • We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
  • This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。
6 rebounded 7c3c38746f183ba5eac1521bcd358376     
弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效
参考例句：
  • The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
  • The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。
7 buoyed 7da50152a46b3edf3164b6a7f21be885     
v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神
参考例句：
  • Buoyed by their win yesterday the team feel confident of further success. 在昨天胜利的鼓舞下，该队有信心再次获胜。
  • His encouragement buoyed her up during that difficult period. 他的鼓励使她在那段困难时期恢复了乐观的情绪。 来自《简明英汉词典》
8 subsidy 2U5zo     
n.补助金，津贴
参考例句：
  • The university will receive a subsidy for research in artificial intelligence.那个大学将得到一笔人工智能研究的补助费。
  • The living subsidy for senior expert's family is included in the remuneration.报酬已包含高级专家家人的生活补贴。
9 favourable favourable     
adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的
参考例句：
  • The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
  • We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。
10 notably 1HEx9     
adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地
参考例句：
  • Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
  • A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。
11 depressed xu8zp9     
adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的
参考例句：
  • When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
  • His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。
12 frenzy jQbzs     
n.疯狂，狂热，极度的激动
参考例句：
  • He was able to work the young students up into a frenzy.他能激起青年学生的狂热。
  • They were singing in a frenzy of joy.他们欣喜若狂地高声歌唱。
13 bolster ltOzK     
n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励
参考例句：
  • The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
  • He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

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