华尔街的赚钱经 第7期:鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧(1)

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即便是专家也对物价到底是涨还是跌的看法不一。

That leaves investors¹ in a quandary² how to construct a portfolio³ at a time of great uncertainty⁴? A wrong bet could be devastating⁵. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump⁶ if the country instead experiences a bout⁷ of inflation.

这就给投资者出了一个难题目在经济前景如此不明朗的情况下，该如何构建自己的投资组合呢?下错了注，受到的打击将是致命的。比如，你的组合是基于对通货紧缩的预期，那么假使发生了通货膨胀，你的资产便会大幅缩水。

鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧.pngThe answer is to prepare for the economic scenario⁸ you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

最佳方案就是，按你认为最有可能出现的经济状况来进行投资，同时采取一定的保险措施，以防止出现失误。

"If you want to win the war," says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant⁹ at Charles Schwab, "you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree."嘉信理财的金融咨询师里奇·罗索说，“要想赢得战争的胜利，作战双方你都得投点资。”

Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns.

采取这种投资方式的话，不管经济形势如何，你都会有部分资产受损。

Here are three portfolios¹⁰, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle¹¹ through without severe inflation or deflation.

下面的三种投资组合均考虑了内在的保险要素。第一种组合在通货膨胀时期表现最佳，遭遇通货紧缩时却也不致崩盘。第二种适于那些预期通货紧缩，同时也希望能够应对通货膨胀的投资者。第三种针对的则是那些认为经济发展温和，既不会有严重的通货膨胀也不会有严重通货紧缩的投资者。

Inflation通货膨胀型投资If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget¹² inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

如果你认为政府应对经济危机的——应开销最终会导致通货膨胀，那么你肯定希望自己的投资组合在物价上涨时能有良好表现。

Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper¹³ and pork bellies¹⁴ should gain. Plus, commodities-particularly gold-hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

商品期货可以是投资的重头，因为到时候原油、粮食、铜、猪肉的价格都会上涨。而且，大宗商品——尤其是黄金，可对冲美元贬值。有人预计，在美元疲软兼通胀的形势下，投资黄金可能会带来双倍的收益。

Insurance Component¹⁵; Long-term Treasury¹⁶ bonds and municipal bonds.

保险元素：长期国债和市政债券Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed¹⁷ payments would bean attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, would like paychecks shrink. And Treasury papers, in particular, would likely become a haven¹⁸ for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

这两种债券在通货紧缩时期价格都会攀升，因为在商品和服务大幅降价、薪酬缩水的情况下，这两种债券的长期固定收益会是一笔可观的收入。尤其是美国国债，到时会很受国外投资者的青睐，从而价格会受到进一步地推动。

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