经济学人382:租房网VS旅馆 人人有房

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　　租房网VS旅馆

　　Room for all, for now

　　人人有房，就是现在

　　But there are signs that the sharing site is starting to threaten budget hotels

　　有信号显示住房分享网站开始威胁快捷酒店

　　EVEN as they lobby regulators to crack down on residential² sharing services, hoteliers play down the threat such companies pose to their industry. The top brass⁴ at the Marriott, Four Seasons and Hilton chains have all said that these firms do not compete for their core market of accommodating high-end and business travellers; a vice-president of The Ritz-Carlton group recently claimed she had not even heard of Airbnb. And Airbnb itself agrees, arguing that it does not displace existing lodging⁵ but is creating new demand. “I'm optimistic that there isn't going to be a war” with hotels, Brian Chesky, its boss, said in January.

　　尽管旅店老板正游说监管者取缔住房分享服务，但他们仍淡化这类公司给其行业带来的威胁。万豪、四季、希尔顿的高管们说这类公司并没有在他们的核心市场展开竞争；丽嘉副总裁最近表示从来没听过Airbnb。Airbnb自身也这么认为，声称其业务并没有取代现存旅馆而是创造了新需求。一月，Airbnb老板布莱恩说：“我保持乐观态度，将不会和旅馆发生正面冲突。”

　　人人有房.jpg

　　A recent study seems to confirm that, for now at least, Airbnb is only nibbling⁶ at the hotel industry's lunch rather than eating it whole. A team at Boston University examined hotel revenues in Texas, where Airbnb has grown much faster in some cities . They could not find a significant influence from Airbnb on business and luxury hotels. But in places where it has established a presence, it cut the revenues of budget hotels by 5% in the two years to December 2013.

　　最近一项研究似乎证实了这一观点，至少就目前看来，Airbnb只是吃掉了这个产业的一小部分而不是一口全吃掉。波士顿大学的一个小组调查了德州酒店的收入情况，在这个州的某些城市，Airbnb的增长快于该州其他城市。他们没有发现Airbnb对商务酒店和豪华酒店的明显影响。但在某些发展较好的地方，Airbnb在截止2013年12月的两年内蚕食了快捷酒店5%的收入。

　　If Airbnb were to keep growing at its current rate—its listings are doubling every year—the Texas study suggests that by 2016 the dent³ in budget hotels' takings will be 10%. With their high fixed⁷ costs, that could push many of them into the red. Of course, Airbnb may hit the limits of either supply or demand before then, but smaller hotels are already blaming it for their woes⁸. “I see a direct correlation⁹ between our revenues going down and [Airbnb's] going up,” says Vijay Dandapani, the president of Apple Core Hotels in New York. “We had continued growth until Airbnb.” The financing round that Airbnb has just closed, valuing it at more than all but the four largest global hotel groups, suggests that investors¹⁰ agree.

　　德州的研究表明，如果Airbnb按目前每年翻倍的增长速度发展，在2016年将会削减快捷酒店10%的份额。因快捷酒店较高的固定成本，这将直接导致很对酒店出现赤字。当然，Airbnb也会遇到自身供给和需求的限制，但小旅馆们早就将自己的古难归咎于Airbnb。纽约苹果核酒店管理公司总裁维贾伊说：“我看到了我们酒店收入下滑和Airbnb收入增长的直接联系，我们本该继续增长的，直到Airbnb开始抢夺市场份额。”Airbnb最新一轮融资刚刚结束，投资者相信其价值仅次于四大国际酒店管理集团。

　　Moreover, Airbnb is beginning to make inroads into business travel. Ever more companies are letting staff book their own itineraries¹¹, and giving them incentives¹² to be thrifty¹³. Google sets a budget for each trip, and employees who underspend them get credits they can donate to charity or use for future perks¹⁴ like flight upgrades.

　　此外，Airbnb开始进军商务旅行市场。更多的公司开始让员工自己定行程，给他们节约的激励。谷歌给每一个行程都设预算，员工节约下来的钱可以捐给慈善机构，也可以留下当做例如飞机升舱一类的未来福利。

　　Concur¹⁵, a travel- and expense-management firm, has seen its corporate¹⁶ clients' Airbnb bookings grow from a rounding error at the start of 2012 to more than 1m so far this year. Much of this comes from groups looking for flats with multiple bedrooms and shared workspace. If Airbnb can integrate with online travel agencies such as Expedia and increase the share of its hosts that provide instant booking confirmation¹⁷, business hotels may find themselves with a surprisingly unignorable competitor.

　　一家旅行费用管理公司Concur见证了Airbnb的增长，2012年初其客户在Airbnb的业务量微乎其微，但今年现阶段其业务量已经超过100万美元。其中大部分业务来自寻找带多间卧室并共享工作区域这类公寓的顾客。如果Airbnb能整合像Expedia这样的网上旅行社，并增加能提供即时预订确认的主机的共享程度，商务酒店或许会惊奇地发现一个不可动摇的强大竞争者。

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