中国承认低估燃煤消耗量 减排行动新挑战

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　　北京——中国是全球燃煤温室气体排放量最多的国家之一，政府发布的新数据显示，中国目前的燃煤量远超以前的估算。这让本已十分艰难的抑制全球变暖行动变得更加复杂。

　　Even for a country of China’s size and opacity⁴, the scale of the correction is immense. China has been consuming as much as 17 percent more coal each year than reported, according to the new government figures. By some initial estimates, that could translate to almost a billion more tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere annually in recent years, more than all of Germany emits from fossil fuels.

　　即使对于中国这样一个庞大而不透明的国家，本次的数据修正幅度也是相当巨大的。政府的新数据显示，中国每年消耗的煤炭比此前的报告高出17%。根据一些初步估计，这可能表示最近数年中，中国每年排放到大气中的二氧化碳多出了逾10亿吨，超过德国所有化石能源的排放量。

　　Officials from around the world will have to come to grips with the new figures when they gather in Paris this month to negotiate an international framework for curtailing⁵ greenhouse-gas pollution. The data also pose a challenge for scientists who are trying to reduce China’s smog, which often bathes whole regions in acrid⁶, unhealthy haze⁷.

　　世界各地的官员本月齐聚巴黎，商讨削减温室气体排放的国际框架时，将不得不应对这些新的数字。而这也对一些试图减少雾霾的科学家提出了挑战，这种刺鼻、有损健康的霾经常笼罩着中国大片地区。

　　The Chinese government has promised to halt the growth of its emissions⁸ of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse pollutant⁹ from coal and other fossil fuels, by 2030. The new data suggest that the task of meeting that deadline by reducing China’s dependence¹⁰ on coal will be more daunting¹¹ and urgent than expected, said Yang Fuqiang, a former energy official in China who now advises the Natural Resources Defense¹² Council.

　　二氧化碳是煤炭等化石能源排放的主要温室气体，中国政府承诺将在2030年以前遏制二氧化碳排放量的增长。自然资源保护协会(Natural Resources Defense Council)顾问、前中国能源官员杨富强说，新的数据表明，减少中国的煤炭依赖、在最后期限前达成目标的难度和紧迫性是超出预期的。

　　“This will have a big impact, because China has been burning so much more coal than we believed,” Mr. Yang said. “It turns out that it was an even bigger emitter than we imagined. This helps to explain why China’s air quality is so poor, and that will make it easier to get national leaders to take this seriously.”

　　“这将产生重大影响，因为中国的燃煤量远远超过我们的料想，”杨富强说。“结果中国的排放量比我们的想象还要多。这就帮助解释了中国的空气质量为何如此糟糕，容易促使国家领导人重视这一问题。”

　　The adjusted data, which appeared recently in an energy statistics yearbook published without fanfare¹³ by China’s statistical¹⁴ agency, show that coal consumption has been underestimated since 2000, and particularly in recent years. The revisions were based on a census¹⁵ of the economy in 2013 that exposed gaps in data collection, especially from small companies and factories.

　　这些经过调整的数据出现在最近出版的能源统计年鉴中，没有了中国统计部门的美化后，数据显示2000年以来的煤炭消耗量被低估，特别是最近几年的消耗量。此次修正是根据2013年的经济普查做出的，普查曝露了数据收集上的差异，特别是小公司和工厂的数据。

　　Illustrating¹⁶ the scale of the revision, the new figures add about 600 million tons to China’s coal consumption in 2012 — an amount equivalent to more than 70 percent of the total coal used annually by the United States.

　　新数据显示了校正规模，将中国2012年的煤炭消耗量增加了大约6亿吨——相当于美国每年煤炭消耗总量的逾70%。

　　“It’s been a confusing situation for a long time,” said Ayaka Jones, a China analyst¹⁷ at the United States Energy Information Administration in Washington. She said the new data vindicated¹⁸ her earlier analysis of China’s preliminary statistics, which flagged significantly increased numbers for coal use and overall energy consumption.

　　“这种令人费解的情况长期存在，”美国能源情报署(United States Energy Information Administration)的中国分析师钱文华说。她表示，新数据证明了她之前对中国初步统计数据的分析是正确的，表明煤炭使用量及能源消耗总量显著增加。

　　The new data indicated that much of the change came from heavy industry — including plants that produce coal chemicals and cement, as well as those using coking coal, which goes to make steel, Ms. Jones said. The correction for coal use in electric power generation was much smaller.

　　钱文华表示，新数据说明，大部分变化源自重工业，包括生产煤化学制品和水泥的工厂，以及利用焦煤炼钢的工厂。发电燃煤量的校正范围要小得多。

　　Officials accepted the need to correct worsening distortions in the old data but have not commented publicly on the changes, according to Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University in eastern China. Mr. Lin said in a telephone interview that this was partly because the new figures made it more complicated to set and assess the country’s clean-energy goals.

　　据厦门大学能源经济研究中心主任林伯强透露，官员们承认需要调整越来越失真的旧数据，但没有公开就数据变化发表评论。林伯强接受电话采访时表示，这部分是因为新数据使得中国清洁能源目标的设定和评估变得更加复杂。

　　“It’s created a lot of consternation,” he said. “Our basic data will have to be adjusted, and the international agencies will also have to adjust their databases. This is troublesome because many forecasts and commitments were based on the previous data.”

　　“这引发了很多恐慌，”他说。“我们的基本数据将需要调整，国际机构也需要调整他们的数据库。这有点麻烦，因为很多预测和承诺是在之前的数据基础上做出的。”

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