双十一购物浪潮并不能加快经济增长

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　　最近，11月11日网购十分火爆。分析师们十分希望能够找出证据，证明消费者需求上涨能够带动缓慢增长的经济。

　　Unfortunately, the prospering⁴ e-commerce industry can hardly solve the problems facing the economy on its own.

　　不幸的是，电商行业解决经济问题的方法似乎并不可行。

　　China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Ltd launched the online Singles' Day sale in 2009. Since then, the date, made up of four lonely "ones", has become the world's biggest online shopping event.

　　中国电商巨人阿里巴巴集团有限公司在2009年时发起了光棍节大促销。该节日（11月11日）由四个“1”组成，现已成为网上购物的盛大节日。

　　The expectations are this year will be another bonanza⁵ and set a new sales record, which has ignited hopes that online consumption can at least partially⁶ offset⁷ the downward pressure on the economy from falling investment and exports.

　　人们期待今年的订单数额将会刷新记录。或许在线消费可以部分抵消投资和出口下跌的经济下滑走势。

　　A closer look at the event, however, shows such hopes are unrealistic.

　　然而，如果我们仔细考虑一下这件事，这种希望是不现实的。

　　双十一购物浪潮并不能加快经济增长

　　The soaring sales on Singles' Day are actually a "sales overdraft⁸" that results from the sudden release of consumers' pent up demand. Many people opt⁹ not to make planned purchases days or months ahead of Nov 11 hoping to benefit from the promotional discounts offered that day, and sales generally fall sharply after the event.

　　光棍节的销量剧增其实是“销量透支”，消费者们为隐性需求买单。有些人在双十一之前的几天甚至几个月都不购物，只为了在11月11日当天能够在打折中获得一些优惠。而且在节日过后，销量也会下滑。

　　There is yet no evidence to support the notion that the contrived¹⁰ shopping spree provides a real boost to the country's overall annual consumption.

　　并且，并没有证据表明这种反常的消费抑制现象会让中国全年的消费水平上升。

　　In reality, for many brands it represents a marketing¹¹ opportunity rather than a means to significantly increase their annual sales. Some dishonest online retailers¹³ even use tricks to avoid offering real discounts in a bid to deceive buyers into thinking they are getting a bargain. For example, they may raise prices in the run-up to Singles' Day before announcing "big discounts" for Nov 11.

　　实际上，很多商家把这看做一种营销手段，而非实际增加销量。有些不诚实的网上零售商还会欺骗消费者，提供虚假折扣，让消费者误以为自己以优惠价购买。例如，他们在光棍节之前把价格抬上去，然后在当天打着“打折促销的”幌子。

　　However, consumers are becoming more rational and avoiding the impetuous spending that has characterized previous one-day sales specials as they realize such events are only a gimmick¹⁴ to get them to part with their money.

　　然而，消费者们越来越理性，越来越能避免冲动消费。他们认为这种只有一天的打折促销其实只是一种噱头，目的是为了让他们花钱而已。

　　Actually, growth in China's consumer demand has been quite stable in recent years. And with the overall economy weakening, the growth in consumption has been trending down, which is in line with the overall economic trend.

　　实际上，最近几年中国消费者的需求已经很稳定了。随着经济低迷，消费涨势也有所减缓，同经济走势保持一致。

　　Among the three major factors driving a country's economic growth - domestic consumption, investment and exports, domestic consumption is the most stable. And considering the weak economy, which affects people's confidence in spending, there will hardly be any major improvement in consumer demand despite the hurly-burly of the Nov 11 shopping event.

　　拉动中国经济增长的三大主要力量——内需、投资和出口之中，消费水平是最稳定的。考虑到经济低迷的现状会影响到居民消费，尽管双十一当天有购买活动，也并不会出现消费者需求大幅度增长的情况。

　　There is no denying that the convenience of online shopping can stimulate¹⁵ people's desire to buy, but at the same time it squeezes traditional consumer demand, partly offsetting¹⁶ its positive role in economic growth.

　　诚然，在线购买十分方便，的确会促使消费者们的购买欲。但是同时，它也会使传统购买需求被压缩，在一定程度上抵消了电商使经济增长的作用。

　　For a developing country such as China, the biggest hurdle¹⁷ preventing fast consumption growth is consumer concern about the future because of the country's immature¹⁸ social security network. Many people are worried about their post-retirement life and are very cautious in making purchasing decisions.

　　例如像中国一样的发展中国家，阻挠经济快速发展的本质在于因为国家没有成熟的社保体系，消费者们对未来感到担忧。很多人担心他们退休以后的生活，所以在买东西的时候也会特别谨慎。

　　Policymakers need to accelerate their pace in improving the social security network and raise people's incomes to stabilize¹⁹ people's expectations for the future and encourage them to spend.

　　政策制定者需要加快提高社保体系步伐，提高收入，使人们对未来有安全感，鼓励其消费。

　　Yet the top priority at the moment is to stabilize the economy. China's infrastructure²⁰ investment has been growing exceptionally fast in recent months to offset the effect of the falling exports. Against that backdrop, many people have pinned their hopes on faster consumption growth to provide a more sustainable driver of the country's economy.

　　然而，现在的首要任务还是要使经济稳定。中国的基础设施投资在最近几个月发展很快，抵消了出口下滑的缺口。对于经济下滑，许多人都寄希望于消费快速增长，为经济提供动力。

　　Indeed, retail¹² sales rose steadily²¹ from July to September - from 10.5 percent to 10.9 percent year-on-year, and they are expected to rise further thanks to the Nov 11 event. Still, such small improvements will not suffice to anchor the economy and the Nov 11 sales boom is but a drop in the bucket of required spending.

　　诚然，零售商销量从7月的10.5%上涨到了9月的10.9%，还可能会在双十一的时候继续上涨。但是，这样的小幅度增长并不会会影响经济走势，双十一的销量只是消费的九牛一毛而已。

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