中国遏制大宗商品投机

中国已采取措施遏制大宗商品市场的过度投机。连续数周来的疯狂交易推高了大宗商品价格，引燃了人们对于中国市场又将滋生一个泡沫的担心。

Activity on China’s largest commodity exchanges has surged in recent days with turnover³ in a key steel contract exceeding the combined volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on one day last week.

中国几家最大的大宗商品交易所近来成交额飙升。上周某日，一种钢材期货主力合约的成交额超过上海和深圳证券交易所成交额之和。

中国遏制大宗商品投机

Investors⁵ around the world have zeroed in on the latest trading binge as the prices of many commodities have risen sharply, with iron ore gaining almost a third in just two weeks. Cash has started to flow into raw materials in part because Chinese officials imposed curbs⁷ on equities⁸ trading last year.

世界各地的投资者已经开始注意这股最新的交易热潮。许多大宗商品的价格近来大幅上升，铁矿石价格在短短两周上涨近三分之一。资金开始流入原材料的部分原因是中国去年出台了针对股票交易的限制措施。

“China’s latest speculative⁹ spike¹⁰ has stunned¹¹ global markets,” said Tom Price., a Morgan Stanley analyst¹².

“中国最新的投机热潮震惊全球市场，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师汤姆?普赖斯(Tom Price)表示。

Shanghai steel futures¹³ have risen more than 50 per cent this year and more than a fifth this month. Iron ore traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit its highest level since September 2014 last week.

上海钢材期货价格今年以来上涨逾50%，本月涨幅就超过五分之一。在大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)交易的铁矿石上周触及自2014年9月以来最高的价位。

The surge led China’s largest commodity trading venues¹⁴ — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange — to curb⁶ activity by lifting transaction costs, margins¹⁵ and daily trading limits on some contracts.

这股飙涨行情已促使中国最大的几家大宗商品交易场所——上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)、大连商品交易所和郑州商品交易所(Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange)——上调交易成本、保证金以及针对某些合约的每日交易限制，以求遏制交易活动。 

Pricing power for the world’s most important raw materials has shifted east during a decade of economic growth that has transformed China into the largest importer of almost every commodity. Now almost half of the world’s most active commodity derivatives¹⁶ are traded on Chinese exchanges 

近10年来的经济增长使中国成为几乎所有大宗商品的最大进口国，全球各种重要原材料的定价权也随之东移。如今，世界上交易最活跃的大宗商品衍生品有近一半在中国的交易所交易。

Analysts¹⁷ said the trigger for increased speculative interest in commodities was a credit surge engineered by Chinese policymakers this year to prop¹⁸ up the economy and its currency. 

分析师们表示，对大宗商品的投机兴趣提高，导火索是中国政策制定者今年为了支撑经济和人民币汇率而设计的一场信贷激增。

This led to a pick-up in construction activity and stoked investor⁴ appetite for ways to bet on the Chinese economy. Beijing imposed draconian¹⁹ rules on equities last year as fears of a slowing economy triggered a sell-off.

信贷激增导致建筑活动回升，并吊起了投资者的胃口，鼓励他们想方设法对中国经济押注。去年对经济放缓的担忧引发股市抛售潮之后，北京方面针对股票交易出台了严厉规则。

Chinese speculators seem “to have decided²⁰ the big credit figures that came out two weeks ago were a green light to get levered up”, Michael Coleman, co-founder of RCMA Asset Management in Singapore,

新加坡RCMA Asset Management的联合创始人迈克尔?科尔曼(Michael Coleman)表示，中国投机者似乎“已认定，两周前发布的巨大信贷数据是加杠杆的绿灯”。

 “They don’t want to buy the stock market because all of the curbs that are in place and seem to have taken the view that commodities are really cheap.”

“由于现行的各种限制措施，他们不想在股市买入股票，而似乎认为大宗商品真的很便宜。”

Some traders fear higher trading costs could lead to a rapid unwinding of speculative positions. Shanghai steel prices slipped 0.3 per cent yesterday, while iron ore futures also closed lower.

一些交易商担心，较高的交易成本可能导致投机头寸迅速平仓。上海钢材价格昨日下跌0.3%，而铁矿石期货亦收低。

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