特朗普为美国工人叫屈有道理吗

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　　过去20年里，北美在全球产出中所占份额的降幅远远小于欧洲或拉美，这削弱了美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)关于不公平贸易协议尤其不利于美国工人的说法。

　　Since 1997, North America’s share of global output has fallen from 28.5 per cent of the total to a forecast 24.1 per cent this year, a decline of 15 per cent, according to data from Euromonitor, a research group.

　　研究集团欧睿(Euromonitor)的数据显示，自1997年以来，北美在全球产出中所占份额从28.5%持续下降，今年预计降至24.1%，总降幅为15%。

　　But western Europe’s share has slumped⁴ 31 per cent over the same period, with its share set to fall below 20 per cent for the first time in 2017, compared with 29.1 per cent in 1997. Latin America has fared almost as badly, with its share slumping⁵ by more than a quarter to 5.1 per cent.

　　但同期西欧所占的份额下降了31%，在1997年为29.1%，而2017年预计将首次降至20%以下。拉美的情况几乎同样糟糕，其占比下降逾四分之一，今年将降至5.1%。

　　All are grappling with the growing power of Asian economies, which are on track to account for 40 per cent of global output this year, up from 26.3 per cent in 1997.

　　所有地区都在努力应对亚洲经济体实力不断增强的局面。今年，亚洲占全球产出的份额料将达到40%，高于1997年的26.3%。

　　“The shift of the past 20 years has been the expansion of global supply chains which saw the integration⁶ of Asia, especially China, into the global manufacturing sector,” said William Jackson, senior emerging market economist⁷ at Capital Economics.

　　“过去20年中出现的变化是全球供应链扩张，亚洲、尤其是中国融入了全球制造业，”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级新兴市场经济学家威廉?杰克逊(William Jackson)说。

　　Mr Trump has claimed that “horrible” trade deals signed by his predecessors⁸ allowed American jobs to slip away to Mexico and China, and called the move to quit the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership⁹ deal a “great thing for the American worker”. But the data suggest other European and Latin American nations have lost out much more.

　　特朗普声称，他的前任们签署的“可怕”贸易协议让美国的工作岗位得以流向墨西哥和中国，退出有12国签署的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)“对美国工人而言是伟大的事情”。但数据表明，欧洲和拉美国家失去的更多。

　　Indre Cesniene, head of industrial research at Euromonitor, said: “In 2017?.?.?.?Asia will account for 70 per cent of all high-tech¹⁰ goods produced globally, with virtually all major companies having production capacities in the region.”

　　欧睿工业研究主管因德雷?切斯尼内(Indre Cesniene)说：“2017年……在全球生产的所有高科技产品中，亚洲将占到70%，几乎所有大公司都在该地区拥有生产能力。”

　　Asia also accounts for more than half of global production of intermediate goods and machinery¹¹. Across manufacturing as a whole, Asia is forecast to have a 45.5 per cent share this year.

　　在全球的中间产品和机械生产领域，亚洲所占份额也在50%以上。就整个制造业而言，亚洲今年预计占到45.5%的份额。

　　Separate figures from the UN suggest that, between 1990-2015, China went from the world’s 8th-largest manufacturer to its largest, South Korea from 12th to fifth, India from 14th to sixth, and Indonesia from 18th to 11th.

　　来自联合国(UN)的数据则表明，从1990年到2015年期间，中国从世界第8制造业大国上升至第一位，韩国从第12位升至第5位，印度从第14位升至第6位，印尼从第18位升至第11位。

　　Asia remains¹² far weaker in service sectors¹³, however, accounting¹⁴ for less than a quarter of turnover¹⁵ in areas such as finance and insurance, and business services.

　　然而，亚洲在服务业方面仍然较弱，在金融保险和商业服务等领域的营收总额中占比不足四分之一。

　　Euromonitor estimated that Asia’s share of global output will grow further, to almost 49 per cent of the total by 2025, with a 75 per cent share in sectors such as textiles and transportation equipment.

　　欧睿估计，亚洲在全球产出中所占份额将进一步增长，到2025年将达到近49%，在纺织品和运输设备等行业的份额将达75%。

　　But Mr Jackson said this advance was “unlikely to continue at the same pace,” given rising protectionism and the fact that one-off boosts such as China joining the World Trade Organisation¹⁶ in 2001 cannot be repeated. “We’re already seeing signs that the integration of manufacturing supply chains has probably reached a peak,” he said.

　　但杰克逊表示，鉴于保护主义加剧以及中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)等一次性刺激不可重复，这种进步“不太可能以同样的速度继续下去”。“我们已看到制造业供应链的整合可能已经见顶的迹象，”他说。

　　Ms Cesniene said she did not envisage¹⁷ Mr Trump making much of a dent¹ in Asia’s rise, arguing that manufacturers, such as automakers, want to be in the region as it is increasingly where their customers are based.

　　切斯尼内表示，她预计特朗普不会对亚洲崛起造成很大打击。她辩称，制造商（如汽车制造商）想要在亚洲立足，因为他们在那里的客户越来越多。

　　The figures are based on national accounts data and industry surveys, standardised by Euromonitor to strip out computational and methodological differences.

　　上述数字基于国民账户数据和行业调查，欧睿对数据进行了标准化处理，以消除计算和方法上的差异。

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