经济学人:世界经济展望 希望之春(1)

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　　World Economic Outlook: Hope Springs 世界经济展望：希望之春

　　The IMF believes that economic growth is picking up, sounds familiar. 国际货币基金组织相信世界经济回暖向好，这话有点儿耳熟？

　　April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, and, in Washington, chirpy forecasts from the IMF that often prove a bit too chirpy. 四月最无情，死地丁香生，并且在华盛顿，来自国际货币基金组织的愉悦预测经常被证明有点太兴奋了。

　　On April 18th the fund released its semi-annual World Economic Outlook (WEO) , raising its forecast for global growth in 2017 to 3.5%. 4月18日，国际货币基金组织公开了其半年一次的世界经济展望（WEO），将它对2017年全球增长的预测提高到3.5%。

　　Growth forecasts for the emerging world have not changed. 对新兴世界的增长预测还没有改变。

　　The IMF's global optimism is based instead on hopes of increased growth in the rich world. 国际货币基金组织对全球经济持有的乐观主义并不是基于发达国家经济增长的希望。

　　The fund takes a rosy¹ view of the American economy, citing both high levels of consumer confidence and Donald Trump's plans for more government spending. 该组织对美国经济持乐观态度，引用了消费者信心高水平和唐纳德·特朗普计划增加政府支出。

　　In Britain the IMF now reckons GDP will grow by 2.0% in 2017, up from earlier estimates of 1.5% (issued in January) and 1.1% (last October). 国际货币基金组织现在认为在英国2017年GDP将增加2.0%，比早前的预估上升了1.5% （1月发布）和1.1% （10月份）。

　　The IMF has also raised its forecasts for Japan and the euro area. 国际货币基金组织同样上调了对日本和欧元区的预测。

　　Snipers point out that IMF forecasts have been far from perfect. 狙击手指出，国际货币基金组织一直都不完美无缺。

　　Some glitches² are excusable. 一些小差错可以谅解。

　　In the spring of 1990, it predicted that Kuwait's economy would grow by 0.8% that year. 1990年的春天，它曾预测科威特的经济那年将增长0.8%。

　　It actually fell by 26%. 实际上却下降了26%。

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