美国有线新闻 CNN 因冠状病毒在美国流行 美国民众开始抢购卫生纸

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As coronavirus spreads, people across the country are stocking up on essentials — and one essential in particular, toilet paper. It’s sold out in stores across the world and has become the ultimate symbol of panic-buying. There was even a toilet paper robbery in Hong Kong.

There are consumer fears of toilet paper running out grounded in reality? Not really. Let's start at the beginning. Toilet paper is made mostly from tree pulp¹ sourced from the U.S. and Canada. The pulp is turned into large rolls of paper called parent rolls, which in turn are used to make a variety of paper products.

For paper manufacturers who run on fixed² capacity, it's hard to increase production quickly. One thing they can do is to switch from making a less in demand product like paper towels to more toilet paper. But most people are not using toilet paper any more than normal. The average American uses between half a roll to just over one roll a week. Let's assume that demand normally remains³ constant throughout the year. That means people are stockpiling.

And when the panic-buying stops sales could fall as people go through their stashes⁴. Many industries like electronics and pharmaceuticals⁵ have complicated global supply chains facing issues with materials, production and shipping⁶ because of the coronavirus. The toilet paper industry with its comparatively simple supply chain, should be able to weather the virus more than most.