万花筒 2012-02-17&02-19 国际能源署调低2012原油需求增长预测

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--David, where do you see Brent and WTI being in six months time and you don't? 

 

--Eh, we don't forecast where prices will go. We are trying set out a, the sort of shape of market fundamental for the next year. Our underlying¹ view is that the market in 2012 looks reasonably well supplied. We think there is nothing incremental² supply from non-OPEC and growth in OPEC capacity to keep demand grow of 0.8 million barrels per day provided. Of course, there's a lot of uncertainties³ about there surrounding what's happening in Iran and some altitude and places like Sudan. But in general terms, we think the market looks pretty well supplied for 2012. 

 

--I'll come to supply in our second. But I'd want to go back to demand. Is the balance of risks to your demand forecast still tilted⁴ to the down side? 

 

--I think, with the latest set of modifications⁵ we've made, both in terms of the economic growth and the demand forecast itself where we, I'm pretty happy with that sort of level of

 

about 0.8 million barrels per day of growth. And that's twinned with economic growth of right 3.3 percent for 2012. Of course there are downsize risks, if the euro zone crisis worsens. On the other hand, Japan is burning a lot more oil because of the nuclear crisis there. So we see the risks really balanced on the demand side I think. 

 

--Okay, and on supply, you say any supply disruption from Iran will be offset⁶ by more output from Saudi Arabia, Libya and other countries in the Gulf⁷. How realistic is that assumption? 

 

--We are not in any sense of a complacence about what might happen in the region around the Gulf and concerning sanctions on Iran. All we pointing out is that there is about 800,000 barrels per day of growth in OPEC capacity this year, from Angola, from Libya, from Iraq. We are gonna watch the situation very closely in the coming months. But at the moment, we don't think there's undue⁸ cause for concern.

 

--Okay, my thanks there to David Fyfe from the IEA in Paris. I'm Jamie McGeever. This is Reuters.

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