2005年NPR美国国家公共电台八月-China, Russia Hold Joint Military Exercis

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Russian and Chinese forces today begin 8 days of joint¹ military exercises. Some ten thousand troops are expected to take part, making this their largest joint military operation since Russia and China fought US-led forces during the Korean War. Moscow and Beijing say the exercises which are called "Peace Mission 2005" are designed to counter terrorism, extremism and separatism. But the type of weaponry involved suggests a broader agenda. NPR's Vicky O'Hara reports.

The land, sea, and air exercises will begin in the Russian port of Vladivostok and then move to China's coastal² Shandong province. They are expected to include fighter jets, landing craft, anti-submarine vessels³ and long-range bombers⁴. Jonathan Polic, an Asian specialist at the US Naval⁵ War College, is skeptical⁶ of the official rationale for the exercises.

There is a/ isn't notional scenario⁷ that has been identified here that would involve some kind of a breakdown⁸ in authority in an unidentified country, therefore, ahh, enabling or requiring Russia and China to demonstrate the capability⁹ to intervene, to restore order but, you know, some of these activities will include live-fire exercises, including some actual testing of cruise missile capabilities¹⁰ by Russian long-range bombers in the Yellow Sea.

According to reports from Russia, China originally wanted to hold the exercises closer to Taiwan, which it has threatened to attack if it pursues independence. But Russia resisted holding the exercises near Taiwan. Again, Jonathan Polic.

The Russians are at pains to argue that this does not have any implications for third party situations and in that read the question of Taiwan, but the demonstration¹¹ of certain kinds of capabilities, the testing of cruise missiles and so forth¹², puts down a marker here even if it does not have any immediate¹³ direct implications for Taiwan.

Washington has been quite restrained in its public comments about the exercises. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack says China and Russia advised Washington of what they had planned.

We are following the exercise. Eh...we expect that they will be conducted in a manner that supports some mutual¹⁴ goal of regional stability shared by the United States, China and Russia.

The exercises are notable not only for the types of weapon systems involved, but for the fact that they are being held on Chinese soil. China is extremely sensitive about its sovereignty. And since Russia and China had a falling-out in the late 1950s, the relationship between the two communist giants has been characterized by mistrust. Peter Brooks¹⁵, director of Asian studies at the Heritage Foundation, says the joint exercises are small in scale but huge in implication.

This is a further warming of the strategic partnership¹⁶ between Moscow and Beijing that was struck back in the 1990s. And it's my view that they signaled the first real post cold war steps beyond the rhetoric¹⁷ by Russia and China to balance and ultimately diminish US power across Asia.

Peter Brooks notes that both Russia and China have been upset over US support for democracy movements in their region. Over the past year and a half, the people of the former Soviet¹⁸ states of Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have overthrown¹⁹ autocratic governments. Analyst²⁰ CC of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says Beijing and Moscow also are incensed²¹ by the US bases in Central Asia installed after 9/11.

Both Russia and China feel that those bases in some ways compromise their own security and they no longer buy the rationale that they are there for purposes of combating terrorism. The Chinese, in particular, believe that those bases are part of an encirclement strategy that the United States has followed vis-a-vis China these past several years.

CC says what is most worrisome for the United States about the joint exercises is not increased cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, but Russian arm sales to China.

Russia today is the only reliable military supplier to China and you've seen enormous amounts of military equipment, primarily, aircraft, submarines and ships flowing from Russia to China. And that also supports Russia's ailing²² defense²³ industries.

Michael Swaine, a senior associate in the China program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says Russia may be using the joint exercises to showcase its wares²⁴ to a very good customer.

There are some indications that the Russians are trying to sell strategic more long-range aircraft that could launch cruise missiles and that the Chinese are interested in these. And those types of weapons are apparently²⁵ going to be used in this exercise.

The United States has tried to convince Russia over the years not to sell weapons to China, but too little effect.

Vicky O'Hara, NPR news Washington.