2005年NPR美国国家公共电台十二月-Chinese Official Foresees Boost in Curre

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Steve Inskeep: China is taking steps that are designed to benefit both the domestic and global economies. A Chinese official said today the country's currency will gradually gain value. That trend will spur domestic consumption inside China itself and also help reduce global trade imbalances. International economists² say China's currency is severely³ undervalued and recent economic reforms by Beijing have had little effect. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports.

Anthony Kuhn: The comments came from economist¹ Yu Yongding, an advisor⁴ to China's central bank. He was quoted in today's official Finacial News newspaper. He said that following China's exchange rate reforms in July, the Chinese yuan would rise slowly within a range set by the government. July's reforms took the yuan's exchange rate off its peg⁵ to the US dollar and instead pegged⁶ it to a basket of foreign currencies. Yu admitted that since the reform, the yuan had only risen 0.4% against the dollar. That's not much compared to the 15 to 40 percent by which foreign governments say the yuan is undervalued. The revaluation has already put a damper on Chinese textile and electronic exports, Yu Yongding noted⁷. But more importantly, Yu predicted that the revaluation would boost Chinese domestic demand and imports, which in turn would cut trade surpluses with countries like the US. The revaluation has clearly helped to cool speculation⁸ about big swings in the yuan's value. The official China Business News reported today that China's foreign currency reserves grew by 9.3 billion dollars in November, the slowest rate in 18 months. Zhong Dajun is a Beijing-based economist who runs his own think tank. He says a lot of the recent influx⁹ of foreign currency into China is hot money, betting the China's currency will rise in value.

Anthony Kuhn: 'Some speculated investors¹⁰ see that the yuan is now in a relatively¹¹ stable state,' he says, 'so their appetite and enthusiasm for speculation has weakened a bit. But foreign pressure for a bigger revaluation has not eased. US politicians continued to blame America's current account deficit¹² and loss of American jobs on an artificially undervalued Chinese currency.' Zhong Dajun says the finger pointing is unnecessary.

Anthony Kuhn: 'China's government doesn't need foreign governments to pressure it to adjust its exchange rate.' he says. 'Chinese economists have been telling their government for years,' he adds, 'that its mercantilist policies based on cheap exports have drained China's own resources and are unsustainable.'

Anthony Kuhn: Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Beijing.