TED演讲 第80期:如何不对世界感到无知(7)

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Now the question, is this important?  那么现在问题来了这很重要吗。

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,  是的，这对理解贫穷。

extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school.  极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要以及如何让女孩子们上学。

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.  当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时 我们才能理解这些问题本身。

But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale? 但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗?这很重要吗?

I would say yes, extremely important,for the same reason.  我想说是的 非常非常重要同样的理由。

If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.  如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的,那么你才可能会有机会去预测将来会发生什么。

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.  我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值。

That's when I was born, and I selected the West.  也就是我刚出生的时候我选择了西方国家。

That's the current EU countries and North America.  也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家。

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.  我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较关于富裕程度。

These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.  这些是能够负担得起坐飞机出国度假的人。

In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America.  1975年的时候 只有30%的人是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区。

But this has changed, okay?  但是情况已经变了。

So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.  首先我们来看看当今的情况 2014年。

Today it's 50/50.  现在是一半一半。

The Western domination is over, as of today.  西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了。

That's nice. So what's going to happen next?  很好那么接下去会发生什么呢？

Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?  你看到那个高峰了吗？ 你看到它是如何变化的吗？。

I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary² Fund³, website.  我做了一个小试验,我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站。

They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.  他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测。

So I can use that to go five years into the future,assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.  所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化，假设各国的贫富差距保持不变。

I did that, but I went even further.  除此以外我还做了进一步的预测。

I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen. 我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测同样的变化速度 就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样。

Let's move into the future.  让我们移步未来。

In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.  2020年 57%来自非西方国家。

In 2025, 63 percent.  2025年 63%。

2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.  2030年68%，到了2035年 西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超。

These are just projections⁴ of GDP per capita into the future.  这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测。

Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe.  73%的富裕消费者将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区。

So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate⁵ to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.  所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书”来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策。

Thank you very much.  非常感谢。

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