TED演讲:城市与企业中的奇妙数学(3)

时间：2018-10-26 07:35:00

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（单词翻译）

　　Before I talk about that, 谈到这之前

　　I've written down at the bottom there 我在底下标出了

　　the slope of this curve, this straight line. 这条曲线的斜率，即这条直线

　　It's three-quarters, roughly, 大约为3比4

　　which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear. 小于1,呈“次线性”

　　And here's the point of that. 这里有一点值得注意

　　It says that, if it were linear, 当最大斜率

　　the steepest slope, 呈线性

　　then doubling the size 那么当体型翻倍

　　you would require double the amount of energy. 所需能量也随之翻倍

　　But it's sublinear, and what that translates into 而若呈次线性，情况则是

　　is that, if you double the size of the organism, 当生物的体型翻倍

　　you actually only need 75 percent more energy. 它实际只需增加75%的能量

　　So a wonderful thing about all of biology 生物的奇妙之处就在于

　　is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale. 它巧妙地展现了经济的伸展能力

　　The bigger you are systematically¹, 根据准确定义的规律

　　according to very well-defined rules, 一个系统越大

　　less energy per capita. 其所需的平均能力越少

　　Now any physiological² variable you can think of, 你能够想到的任何变量

　　any life history event you can think of, 任何历史事件

　　if you plot it this way, looks like this. 只要你照着这样制表，都会得到相似的图形

　　There is an extraordinary regularity³. 其一致性非常惊人

　　So you tell me the size of a mammal, 只要你说出一种哺乳动物的体型

　　I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it 我就能告诉你关于其生理和生命周期等情况

　　in terms of its physiology⁴, life history, etc. 正确率90%

　　And the reason for this is because of networks. 原因就在于网络

　　All of life is controlled by networks -- 所有生命都由网络所控制

　　from the intracellular through the multicellular 不论是单细胞还是多细胞生物

　　through the ecosystem⁵ level. 整个生态系统都是如此

　　And you're very familiar with these networks. 你对这些网络并不陌生

　　That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant. 这是生长在大象体内的一种小生物

　　And here's the summary of what I'm saying. 这是我讲话内容的总结

　　If you take those networks, 你有了这些网络

　　this idea of networks, 网络的概念

　　and you apply universal principles, 再用上普遍原理

　　mathematizable, universal principles, 数学化的普遍原理

　　all of these scalings 所有规模增长

　　and all of these constraints⁶ follow, 所有限制因素

　　including the description of the forest, 包括森林的情况

　　the description of your circulatory system, 你循环系统的情况

　　the description within cells. 细胞内部情况等

　　One of the things I did not stress in that introduction 我在介绍中没有提及的一点是

　　was that, systematically, the pace of life 生长的节奏会随着你体型的增大

　　decreases as you get bigger. 而系统性地减缓

　　Heart rates are slower; you live longer; 心率会减缓，你活得更久

　　diffusion⁷ of oxygen and resources 通过细胞膜的氧气

　　across membranes⁸ is slower, etc. 和物质的流动减缓

　　The question is: Is any of this true 问题是，这是否

　　for cities and companies? 也适用于城市和企业

　　So is London a scaled up Birmingham, 伦敦是否是长大了的伯明翰

　　which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.? 而伯明翰是否是长大了的布莱顿，等等

　　Is New York a scaled up San Francisco, 纽约是否是长大了的旧金山

　　which is a scaled up Santa Fe? 而旧金山是否是长大了的圣达菲

　　Don't know. We will discuss that. 不知道，我们稍候再讨论

　　But they are networks, 但它们都是网络

　　and the most important network of cities 而城市最重要的网络

　　is you. 就是你

　　Cities are just a physical manifestation 城市只是

　　of your interactions, 你我社会活动

　　our interactions, 以及个体相互聚拢集合的

　　and the clustering and grouping of individuals. 物质表现

　　Here's just a symbolic⁹ picture of that. 这只是一张简易图表

　　And here's scaling of cities. 这是城市规模的扩大

　　This shows that in this very simple example, 这幅图显示出了一个非常简单的例子

　　which happens to be a mundane¹⁰ example 这例子很寻常

　　of number of petrol stations 加油站的数量

　　as a function of size -- 作为规模

　　plotted in the same way as the biology -- 按照同于生物的方法制表

　　you see exactly the same kind of thing. 你能够观察到一模一样的结果

　　There is a scaling. 上面显示了增长的趋势

　　That is that the number of petrol stations in the city 你告诉我城市的规模

　　is now given to you 我就能够说出

　　when you tell me its size. 这座城市有多少个加油站

　　The slope of that is less than linear. 斜率呈次线性

　　There is an economy of scale. 这是规模经济

　　Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising. 城市越大，人均加油站数量就越小，并不稀奇

　　But here's what's surprising. 稀奇的在这里

　　It scales in the same way everywhere. 增长的规律在哪里都适用

　　This is just European countries, 这反映的只是欧洲国家的情况

　　but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia, 但如果你用同样的方法观察日本，中国或哥伦比亚

　　always the same 结果都是一样的

　　with the same kind of economy of scale 同样的规模经济

　　to the same degree. 同样的水平

　　And any infrastructure¹¹ you look at -- 而且，你看到的所有基础设施

　　whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines -- 不论是道路还是电线的长度

　　anything you look at 不论是什么

　　has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way. 都存在增长模式相同的规模经济

　　It's an integrated system 这个综合体系

　　that has evolved despite all the planning and so on. 不停演进，无论如何规划都是如此

　　But even more surprising 而当你看到

　　is if you look at socio-economic quantities, 社会经济数量

　　quantities that have no analog¹² in biology, 即八千到一万年前

　　that have evolved when we started forming communities 我们开始建立社区时的社会经济数量

　　eight to 10,000 years ago. 你们会感到更加意外

　　The top one is wages as a function of size 上图以工资作为规模参数

　　plotted in the same way. 同理制表

　　And the bottom one is you lot -- 而下面的是“你”

　　super-creatives plotted in the same way. 也就是超级智能人，同理制表

　　And what you see 上面显示出

　　is a scaling phenomenon. 一个规模增长的现象

　　But most important in this, 但图上最重要的是

　　the exponent¹³, the analog to that three-quarters 新陈代谢率的幂

　　for the metabolic¹⁴ rate, 近似于三分之四

　　is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2. 大于1,大约在1.15和1.2之间

　　Here it is, 意思是

　　which says that the bigger you are 规模越大

　　the more you have per capita, unlike biology -- 人均数就越多，与生物学的情况相反

　　higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger, 工资越高，就有越多的超级智能人出现

　　more patents per capita, more crime per capita. 人均专利和犯罪率越高

　　And we've looked at everything: 我们研究了所有事物

　　more AIDS cases, flu, etc. 艾滋病病例，流感等等

　　And here, they're all plotted together. 把这些都放在一起制成表

　　Just to show you what we plotted, 让你们看到

　　here is income, GDP -- 我们把收入 GDP

　　GDP of the city -- 城市的GDP

　　crime and patents all on one graph. 犯罪和专利都放在一张图上

　　And you can see, they all follow the same line. 你们可以看到

　　And here's the statement. 下面是图的表述

　　If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000, 如果一个城市的规模从10万增长至20万

　　from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million, 从一百万到两百万，从一千万到两千万

　　it doesn't matter, 都一样

　　then systematically 在这个城市中

　　you get a 15 percent increase 工资，财富，艾滋病病例

　　in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases, 警察人数

　　number of police, 任何你能想到的事物

　　anything you can think of. 都会系统地增加15%

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收听单词发音

1 systematically
adv.有系统地
参考例句：
This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。 The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

2 physiological
adj.生理学的，生理学上的
参考例句：
He bought a physiological book.他买了一本生理学方面的书。 Every individual has a physiological requirement for each nutrient.每个人对每种营养成分都有一种生理上的需要。

3 regularity
n.规律性，规则性；匀称，整齐
参考例句：
The idea is to maintain the regularity of the heartbeat.问题就是要维持心跳的规律性。 He exercised with a regularity that amazed us.他锻炼的规律程度令我们非常惊讶。

4 physiology
n.生理学，生理机能
参考例句：
He bought a book about physiology.他买了一本生理学方面的书。 He was awarded the Nobel Prize for achievements in physiology.他因生理学方面的建树而被授予诺贝尔奖。

5 ecosystem
n.生态系统
参考例句：
This destroyed the ecosystem of the island.这样破坏了岛上的生态系统。 We all have an interest in maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem.维持生态系统的完整是我们共同的利益。

6 constraints
强制( constraint的名词复数 )；限制；约束
参考例句：
Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。来自英汉非文学 - 科学史 What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

7 diffusion
n.流布；普及；散漫
参考例句：
The invention of printing helped the diffusion of learning.印刷术的发明有助于知识的传播。 The effect of the diffusion capacitance can be troublesome.扩散电容会引起麻烦。

8 membranes
n.（动物或植物体内的）薄膜( membrane的名词复数 )；隔膜；（可起防水、防风等作用的）膜状物
参考例句：
The waste material is placed in cells with permeable membranes. 废液置于有渗透膜的槽中。来自辞典例句 The sarcoplasmic reticulum is a system of intracellular membranes. 肌浆网属于细胞内膜系统。来自辞典例句

9 symbolic
adj.象征性的，符号的，象征主义的
参考例句：
It is symbolic of the fighting spirit of modern womanhood.它象征着现代妇女的战斗精神。 The Christian ceremony of baptism is a symbolic act.基督教的洗礼仪式是一种象征性的做法。

10 mundane
adj.平凡的；尘世的；宇宙的
参考例句：
I hope I can get an interesting job and not something mundane.我希望我可以得到的是一份有趣的工作，而不是一份平凡无奇的。 I find it humorous sometimes that even the most mundane occurrences can have an impact on our awareness.我发现生活有时挺诙谐的，即使是最平凡的事情也能影响我们的感知。

11 infrastructure
n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施
参考例句：
We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。 We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

12 analog
n.类似物，模拟
参考例句：
The analog signal contains high-frequency video information,which helps make up the picture.模拟信号包括有助于构成图像的高频视频信息。 The analog computer measures continuously,without proceeding step by step.模拟计算机不是一步一步地进行，而是连续地进行量度。

13 exponent
n.倡导者，拥护者；代表人物；指数，幂
参考例句：
She is an exponent of vegetarianism.她是一个素食主义的倡导者。 He had been the principal exponent of the Gallipoli campaign.他曾为加里波利战役的主要代表人物。

14 metabolic
adj.新陈代谢的
参考例句：
Impressive metabolic alternations have been undergone during embryogenesis.在胚胎发生期间经历了深刻的代谢变化。 A number of intoxicants are associated with metabolic acidosis.许多毒性物质可引起代谢性酸中毒。

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