TED演讲:科学解释之新探(4)

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　　It's always, as Karl Popper put it, theory-laden. 而是如卡尔·波普尔所说，充满着理论假设

　　Scientific knowledge isn't derived¹ from anything.  科学知识不是从什么直接推导而来

　　It's like all knowledge.  而是像所有其他知识一样，

　　It's conjectural², guesswork, tested by observation, not derived from it. 是假设性的，一种推测，由观察来检验，却不从观察直接推导而来

　　So, were testable conjectures³ the great innovation that opened the intellectual prison gates? 这么说来，是不是可以检验的假设就是把人类放出认知牢笼的伟大发明呢？

　　No. Contrary to what's usually said, testability is common, 不是。和人们常常所说的不同，可检验性其实不稀奇，

　　in myths and all sorts of other irrational⁴ modes of thinking.  就是在神话和其他非理性的思维方式中都广泛存在

　　Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday has got a testable prediction. 随便哪个家伙想说下周二太阳将要熄灭，他的假设都是可检验的

　　Consider the ancient Greek myth explaining seasons. 让我们想想一个古希腊的神话是用来解释季节更替的

　　Hades, God of the Underworld, kidnaps Persephone, the Goddess of Spring, 哈德斯，冥界之神，绑架了春之神普西芬妮

　　and negotiates a forced marriage contract,  又强迫她签下一纸婚书

　　requiring her to return regularly, and lets her go.  只允许她每年定时回到地面，然后就放她走了

　　And each year, she is magically compelled to return. 于是每一年她都被某种魔力带回冥界

　　And her mother, Demeter, Goddess of the Earth, is sad, and makes it cold and barren. 她的妈妈迪米特，大地女神，十分伤心，土地于是冻结荒芜

　　That myth is testable.  这则神话是可以检验的

　　If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,  如果迪米特的哀伤导致了冬天

　　then it must happen everywhere on Earth simultaneously⁵.  那么它必须在地球上的所有地方同时发生

　　So if the ancient Greeks had only known that Australia is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest, 所以其实只要古希腊人知道澳大利亚在迪米特最伤心时正经历着最热的天气

　　they'd have known that their theory is false.  它们肯定知道自己的理论错了

　　So what was wrong with that myth, and with all pre-scientific thinking, 那么这则神话究竟错在哪儿呢？科学到来前人们的思维有什么问题呢？

　　and what, then, made that momentous⁶ difference?  又是什么改变了这一切呢？

　　I think there is one thing you have to care about.  我觉得有一样东西我们得关注

　　And that implies testability, the scientific method, the Enlightenment, and everything. 它同时意味着可验证性，科学方法，启蒙运动，还有前面说的一切

　　And here is the crucial thing.  我现在要说的就是那个万分重要的东西：

　　There is such a thing as a defect in a story.  一个故事里可能出现缺陷

　　I don't just mean a logical defect. I mean a bad explanation.  我不是指逻辑缺陷，我是说坏解释的存在的

　　What does that mean?  什么意思呢？

　　Well, explanation is an assertion about what's there, unseen, that accounts for what's seen. 所谓解释，是一个关于不可见物如何描述可见物的断言

　　Because the explanatory role of Persephone's marriage contract 因为普西芬妮婚书对季节的解释作用

　　could be played equally well by infinitely⁷ many other ad hoc entities⁸. 可以完好无损地由无限多个其他临时想出的事物来完成

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