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科学美国人60秒 SSS 气候变暖会致苍蝇和疾病增多

时间：2019-12-10 08:56:47

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This is Scientific American — 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.

A recent analysis predicts that 40 percent of the world's insect species could go extinct within a couple of decades. The highest death tolls1 could be among butterflies, moths2, bees and dung beetles3.

Conspicuously4 absent from that list are houseflies. Because they may actually do better in a hotter world. "Under a warming scenario5 you'd have a larger fly population which is able to h??ang around for a longer period of time." Amy Greer, an epidemiologist and mathematical modeler at the University of Guelph in Ontario.

She says, flies are also more active when it's warm. Meaning more chances to land on your picnic dips.

Greer's student Melanie Cousins, now a doctoral candidate at the University of Waterloo, explains the effect on us: "With this increase in fly population and fly activity, this may lead to more transmission of Campylobacter."

The common foodborne illness, like the flies, fluctuates with the seasons. "So with warmer temperatures Campylobacter will be able to replicate6 more efficiently7."

Cousins modeled both the insect and bacterial8 trends under different global warming scenarios9. And found that the uptick in fly population numbers did not matter much. But if warming truly does increase fly activity, then Campylobacter cases in the Ontario, Canada, area could more than double with a moderate 4 degrees Fahrenheit10 rise in temperature by 2080. The results are in the journal Royal Society Open Science.

These conclusions do come with many caveats11. For instance, the data is generated by a mathematical model, saying this is at least in theory possible. But it does not take into account a possible increase in fly predators12, for example. And the researchers haven't actually tested flies landing on food to see if they're dropping off bacteria. And while it has been shown in past studies that flies can carry Campylobacter, it's unclear whether warming temperatures might affect their ability to do so.

Still, the researchers themselves are taking precautions. "I am a little bit paranoid about it personally." "I bought one of those fly screens for picnics to go over the bowls."

Thanks for listening for Scientific American — 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.


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点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 tolls 688e46effdf049725c7b7ccff16b14f3     
（缓慢而有规律的）钟声( toll的名词复数 )； 通行费； 损耗； （战争、灾难等造成的）毁坏
参考例句：
  • A man collected tolls at the gateway. 一个人在大门口收通行费。
  • The long-distance call tolls amount to quite a sum. 长途电话费数目相当可观。
2 moths de674306a310c87ab410232ea1555cbb     
n.蛾( moth的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • The moths have eaten holes in my wool coat. 蛀虫将我的羊毛衫蛀蚀了几个小洞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The moths tapped and blurred at the window screen. 飞蛾在窗帘上跳来跳去，弄上了许多污点。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
3 beetles e572d93f9d42d4fe5aa8171c39c86a16     
n.甲虫( beetle的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • Beetles bury pellets of dung and lay their eggs within them. 甲壳虫把粪粒埋起来，然后在里面产卵。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • This kind of beetles have hard shell. 这类甲虫有坚硬的外壳。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
4 conspicuously 3vczqb     
ad.明显地，惹人注目地
参考例句：
  • France remained a conspicuously uneasy country. 法国依然是个明显不太平的国家。
  • She figured conspicuously in the public debate on the issue. 她在该问题的公开辩论中很引人注目。
5 scenario lZoxm     
n.剧本，脚本；概要
参考例句：
  • But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
  • This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。
6 replicate PVAxN     
v.折叠，复制，模写；n.同样的样品；adj.转折的
参考例句：
  • The DNA of chromatin must replicate before cell division.染色质DNA在细胞分裂之前必须复制。
  • It is also easy to replicate,as the next subsection explains.就像下一个小节详细说明的那样，它还可以被轻易的复制。
7 efficiently ZuTzXQ     
adv.高效率地，有能力地
参考例句：
  • The worker oils the machine to operate it more efficiently.工人给机器上油以使机器运转更有效。
  • Local authorities have to learn to allocate resources efficiently.地方政府必须学会有效地分配资源。
8 bacterial dy5z8q     
a.细菌的
参考例句：
  • Bacterial reproduction is accelerated in weightless space. 在失重的空间，细菌繁殖加快了。
  • Brain lesions can be caused by bacterial infections. 大脑损伤可能由细菌感染引起。
9 scenarios f7c7eeee199dc0ef47fe322cc223be88     
n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本
参考例句：
  • Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
  • Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
10 Fahrenheit hlhx9     
n./adj.华氏温度；华氏温度计(的)
参考例句：
  • He was asked for the boiling point of water in Fahrenheit.他被问到水的沸点是华氏多少度。
  • The thermometer reads 80 degrees Fahrenheit.寒暑表指出华氏80度。
11 caveats 48df864755bcc93c76f4c52b05b18aeb     
警告
参考例句：
  • I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling. 为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。 来自辞典例句
  • As I have written before, that's quite a caveat. 正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。 来自互联网
12 predators 48b965855934a5395e409c1112d94f63     
n.食肉动物( predator的名词复数 )；奴役他人者（尤指在财务或性关系方面）
参考例句：
  • birds and their earthbound predators 鸟和地面上捕食它们的动物
  • The eyes of predators are highly sensitive to the slightest movement. 捕食性动物的眼睛能感觉到最细小的动静。 来自《简明英汉词典》

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