2022年经济学人 美国通胀

（单词翻译）

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Follow the money

跟着钱走

The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus¹ that it would subside².

唯一能证明2021年美国的通货膨胀是暂时的，是人们一致认为它将会消退。

The left-hand chart shows that analysts³ consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.

左边的图表显示，分析师不断向上修正他们的预测，还是落后于现实。

Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.

与去年同期相比，消费者价格上涨了近7%，这是自1982年以来的最快增速。

What does the future hold?

未来是什么样子？

The right-hand chart presents two scenarios⁴.

右边的图表显示了两种情况。

In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory⁵.

第一种情况，月度环比通胀率立即回落至疫情前的水平。

Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.

即便如此，年通胀率要到2022年底才能降至2%，这在过去是常态。

In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.

第二种情况，消费者价格指数月度增幅与去年持平。

Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.

2月份，年通货膨胀率将飙升至近8%，并保持在较高水平。

Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.

无论哪种情况，有一种预测似乎已成定局：美联储将在2022年开始加息，正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那样。