2022年经济学人 千禧一代终于掀起了房地产热潮

（单词翻译）

Finance & economics

财经板块

House Prices: Coming of age

房价：到年龄了

Millennials are stoking the property boom at last

千禧一代终于掀起了房地产热潮

Home ownership had long been a distant dream for many millennials.

对许多千禧一代来说，拥有住房一直是一个遥远的梦想。

But after years of putting off marriage, delaying parenthood and battling student debt, the so-called Generation Rent is at last emerging as a big driver of the housing boom in the rich world.

但是，在推迟结婚、推迟生育、纠缠于学生债务多年之后，所谓的“租房一代”终于成为富裕国家房地产繁荣的一大推动力。

Typically defined as those born between 1981 and 1996, millennials make up the largest generation ever in America. As more of them reach their peak buying years, they are becoming a force to be reckoned with in the property market.

千禧一代通常是指出生于1981年至1996年之间的人，是美国有史以来人数最多的一代。随着他们中越来越多的人达到购房高峰期，他们正成为房地产市场中一股不可忽视的力量。

In America they represent the fastest-growing segment of buyers and have accounted for more than half of all mortgage applications over the past two years.

在美国，他们是增长最快的买家群体，在过去的两年里，他们占据所有抵押贷款申请的一半以上。

CoreLogic, a research firm, estimates that millennial¹ homebuying was responsible for more than 60% of property-sales growth in 2020. British millennials are now more likely to own their home than to rent. And nearly half of adults aged² 25-35 in Canada have bought property.

研究公司CoreLogic估计，千禧一代的购房对2020年房地产销售增长的贡献超过60%。英国的千禧一代现在更可能购买属于自己的房子，而不是租房。在加拿大，25-35岁的成年人中有近一半已经购买了房产。

More millennials will reach the age of 32, the median age for first-time buyers, over the next two years than ever before.

未来两年，将有更多的千禧一代达到32岁，这是首次购房者的中值年龄。

If the additional demand is to be satisfied American builders will need to construct as many as 2m houses each year, according to Jefferies, an investment bank. That compares with housing starts of 1.6m in 2021.

根据投资银行Jefferies的说法，如果要满足这些额外的需求，美国的建筑商每年将需要建造多达200万套房屋。相比之下，2021年新屋开工数为160万套。

But the homebuying frenzy³ reflects more than millennials simply getting older. Following lockdowns and other sweeping⁴ changes to daily life during the pandemic, a growing number of millennials want larger family homes with more dedicated⁵ office space for remote work.

但购房狂潮不仅仅反映了千禧一代的成长。随着疫情期间的封锁和日常生活的其他全面变化，越来越多的千禧一代希望拥有更大的家庭住宅，拥有更专用的办公空间，以便远程工作。

Those who already own property are trading up for more space. This, in addition to stamp-duty tax cuts, helped push the number of first-time buyers in Britain to its highest level in nearly two decades in 2021.

那些已经拥有房产的人正在换置更大的房子。这一举措，加上印花税的削减，推动了英国的首次购房者数量在2021年达到近20年来的最高水平。

Some have brought forward plans to buy. In America nearly a third of young adults polled by Clever Real Estate, a property firm, said that covid-19 had nudged them into house-hunting earlier than planned.

一些人已经有了购买计划。在美国，接受房地产公司Clever Real Estate调查的近三分之一的年轻人表示，新冠肺炎让他们比计划提前开始看房。

The millennial push is reshaping property markets. For one thing, millennials are swapping⁶ flats for family homes. The vast majority of young buyers in America bought a single-family home in 2021. Many are also leaving cities, or trading expensive areas for cheaper ones.

千禧一代的这一举措正在重塑房地产市场。首先，千禧一代正在用公寓置换自己的房子。美国绝大多数年轻买家在2021年购买了一套独栋住宅。许多人也在离开城市，或者从昂贵的地区搬向便宜的地区。

Young adults are less tied to London, says Lucian Cook of Savills, a property firm. The number of millennials in Britain’s smaller cities, such as Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Bristol, is growing far more quickly than that in the Big Smoke.

来自房产公司Savills的卢西恩·库克表示，年轻的成年人对伦敦的向往降低了。在曼彻斯特、格拉斯哥、爱丁堡和布里斯托尔等英国小城市，千禧一代的人数增长速度远远快于大城市。

Remote work is also opening up more affordable⁷ places to live. In America buyers are flocking to sunbelt hotspots, like Phoenix⁸ and Tampa.

远程工作也为人们提供了更多负担得起的居住场所。在美国，买家正蜂拥至阳光地带的热点地区，如凤凰城和坦帕。

Zillow, a property firm, estimates that a typical renter in San Francisco would have to set aside 2.4% of their income for six or seven years to save enough for a 20% deposit on a starter home in Austin or Phoenix. For a similar property in San Francisco they would have to save for more than 70 years.

房地产公司Zillow估计，旧金山的一般租房者必须在六到七年的时间里，将收入的2.4%存起来，才能为奥斯丁或凤凰城的首套房存够20%的首付。但在旧金山买一套类似的房产，他们得存上70多年。

Will millennial home ownership continue to power the market? The growing number of millennials entering their buying years will keep momentum⁹ going, and flexible work could continue to make cheaper areas more attractive.

千禧一代的自有住房会继续推动这个市场吗?越来越多的千禧一代到达购房年龄，这一势头将继续保持下去，而灵活的工作时间可能会继续让更便宜的地区更具吸引力。

The question is what happens to affordability¹⁰. Interest rates in many places are going up: the Federal Reserve expects to raise rates six more times this year. That could cool demand and increase mortgage-servicing costs.

问题是人们的负担能力会发生什么变化。许多地方的利率都在上升：美联储预计今年将再加息六次。这可能会降低需求，增加抵押贷款服务的成本。

Rising interest rates in the 1980s, for instance, depressed¹¹ housing markets just as baby-boomers reached their peak buying years. The difference now, though, is that rates are low by historical standards and expected to rise only gradually.

例如，上世纪80年代，当婴儿潮一代达到购房高峰期时，利率的上升导致了房地产市场的萧条。然而，现在的不同之处在于，从历史的角度来衡量，现在的利率还比较低，而且预计只会逐渐提高。

Severe constraints¹² on housing supply, however, may mean that affordability remains¹³ strained. Shortages of labour and materials will make it harder for builders to put new homes on the market.

然而，住房供应的严重限制可能意味着人们的负担能力仍然吃紧。劳动力和材料的短缺会让建筑商更难将新房投放市场。

Record-low inventory¹⁴ and fierce bidding wars could mean fewer homes to choose from. For some millennials, the dream of home ownership may still prove out of reach.

创下新低的房产库存和激烈的竞购战意味着房屋选择越来越少。对某些千禧一代来说，拥有住房的梦想可能仍然遥不可及。

Correction: In last week's story on windfall taxes, article Power Grab, we said that America's tax on oil producers was implemented¹⁵ in 1986. In fact, it began in 1980. Sorry!

纠错：在上周的“意外利润税：争夺权力”的文章中，我们说美国在1986年对石油生产商征税，事实上，它从1980年就开始了。抱歉！