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2022年经济学人 美国在亚太地区制定新的经济框架

时间:2022-06-09 02:26:10

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Finance & Economics

财经版块

The Indo-Pacific economy

印太地区的经济

A new pact1 for Asia: just don’t call it a trade deal

为亚洲定制的新条约:不要把它当做贸易协议

Amere three days after being sworn in as president in January 2017, Donald Trump2 signed an executive order withdrawing America from the Trans-Pacific Partnership3 (tpp), a 12-country free-trade deal he had railed against on the campaign trail.

在2017年1月宣誓就任美国总统三天后,唐纳德·特朗普签署了一项让美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(tpp)的行政命令,这是他在竞选期间抨击的一项12国自由贸易协定。

On May 23rd, 488 days after his own swearing-in, President Joe Biden tried to reverse some of the damage by unveiling a new pact, the 13-country Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (ipef).

5月23日,在宣誓就职488天后,乔·拜登总统试图通过公布一项新协定——13国印太经济框架(ipef)来弥补一些损害。

That Mr Biden took so much longer to launch his Asian trade policy illustrates4 one basic truth: it is far easier to tear up agreements than it is to craft them anew.

拜登花了这么长的时间来启动他的亚洲贸易政策,这说明了一个基本的事实:撕毁协议远比重新制定协议容易。

Inevitably5, one way to look at the ipef is by way of comparison to the tpp (which lives on in reduced form, absent America).

不可避免,人们对ipef的一种解读是把它与tpp (以简化形式存在,不包括美国)进行比较。

Some bits sound rather familiar. One selling-point for the tpp was that it was a “21st-century trade agreement” complete with high standards for workers’ rights and e-commerce rules.

有些说法听起来很耳熟。tpp的一个亮点是,它是一项“21世纪的贸易协定”,对工人权利和电子商务规则有着高标准要求。

The ipef is also “a 21st-century economic arrangement”, according to Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser6.

美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文表示,ipef也是“21世纪的经济规划”。

The original tpp members accounted for nearly 40% of global gdp, roughly the same share as the current ipef partners.

最初的tpp成员国占全球gdp的近40%,与目前的ipef成员国的份额大致相同。

Most crucially, China is still excluded.

最关键的是,中国仍然被排除在外。

The ipef, like the tpp, is an attempt to build a trading structure in Asia that enshrines both America’s economic principles and its economic power.

与tpp一样,ipef试图在亚洲建立一个既包含美国经济原则,又包含美国经济实力的贸易结构。

That, however, is where the similarities end.

然而,两者的相似之处也仅限于此。

Mr Trump’s success in winning support with his calls to stop countries “ripping off” America has made many in Washington leery of ambitious free-trade deals.

特朗普呼吁阻止美国被“剥削”,成功赢得了支持,这让华盛顿的许多人对雄心勃勃的自由贸易协定持怀疑态度。

So rather than starting work on a pact that would require approval from Congress, Mr Biden’s team has designed a framework that is more malleable7 and may avoid that political death-trap.

因此,拜登的团队并没有开始制定一项需要国会批准的协议,而是设计了一个更具可塑性的框架,这也许能避免陷入政治死亡的困境。

In announcing the launch, Katherine Tai, the United States Trade Representative (ustr), pledged to “keep Congress close” in shaping the ipef--a far cry from putting it to a vote.

在宣布启动该计划时,美国贸易代表邰丽华(Katherine Tai)承诺在制定ipef时会“与国会保持密切联系”——这与最终送去表决相距甚远。

Malleability8 has a few big downsides. It limits what America can offer.

这种可塑性也有几个很大的缺点。它限制了美国能提供的东西。

A cut in tariff9 rates, a plank10 of most free-trade deals, is a non-starter because it would require congressional support.

降低关税是大多数自由贸易协定的重要组成部分,但由于需要国会的支持,降低关税是不可能的。

America still vows11 to push for strong labour and environmental standards but, unable to offer more access to its vast market, it lacks a key bargaining chip.

美国仍承诺推行强有力的劳工和环境标准,但由于无法让其他国家进入其广阔的市场,美国损失了一个关键的谈判筹码。

The durability12 of the ipef is also in doubt.

ipef的持久性也存在疑问。

Were Mr Trump to return to the Oval Office in 2024, he would not need three days to ditch the framework.

如果特朗普在2024年重返白宫的椭圆形办公室(Oval Office),不到3天他就会放弃该框架。

The Biden administration has tried to make a virtue13 of these limits.

拜登政府想要利用这些限制。

Rather than conceiving of the ipef as a conventional deal, it has declared that the pact will rest on four pillars, with trade promotion14 just one.

它没有把ipef设想成一项常规协议,而是宣称该协议有四个基本支柱,而贸易促进只是其中一个。

The other three goals are to make supply chains more resilient; to promote infrastructure15 investment and clean energy; and to form new rules on taxation16 and anti-corruption.

另外三个目标是让供应链更具弹性; 促进基础设施投资和清洁能源; 并制定税收和反腐败的新规则。

It is tempting17 to dismiss such a wide-ranging agenda as too vague to amount to anything.

人们很容易认为,这样一个涉猎广泛的议程太过模糊,没有任何意义。

But paradoxically, a near-stumble at the launch of the framework illustrated18 that it could, in theory, have force to its contents: America had to tone down the language in its founding documents, otherwise some in Asia would have balked19 at signing them.

但矛盾的是,框架启动时的一次差错表明,从理论上讲,它的内容是有力量的:美国必须淡化其创始文件中的语言,否则一些亚洲国家会拒绝签署这些文件。

Matthew Goodman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, notes that the focus on topics such as digital trade, competition policy and bribery20 makes for a good menu for the ipef.

智库战略与国际研究中心的马修·古德曼指出,对数字贸易、竞争政策和贿赂等话题的关注让ipef的内容看起来还不错。

“These are issues that are very much in the interest of our partners in the region,” he says. At the same time, breadth poses a challenge.

他表示:“这些问题非常符合我们在该地区的合作伙伴的利益。” 与此同时,框架的广度也带来了挑战。

Instead of just having the ustr as the lead negotiator, as in normal trade talks, the Commerce Department is in charge of the non-trade portfolio21.

与普通贸易谈判中只有美国贸易代表作为首席谈判代表不同,此次美国商务部负责的是非贸易部门。

That risks turning it into a multi-headed beast.

这就可能让该框架变成多元领导机制。

For now, many in the region are most pleased by the symbolism. The wounds from America’s tpp exit are still raw.

目前,该地区的许多国家对这一规定的象征意义最为满意。美国退出tpp的伤口仍未愈合。

Since Mr Biden’s election victory, allies have waited and waited for America to devise a new Asian trade strategy.

自拜登当选以来,盟友们一直在等待美国制定新的亚洲贸易战略。

At last it has arrived, even if it is more notable for its political constraints22 than its economic potential.

虽然政治约束比经济潜力更引人注目,但它最终还是到来了。

“We are just happy to have them at the table,” says one Australian official.

一位澳大利亚官员表示:“我们很高兴他们加入进来。”


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1 pact ZKUxa     
n.合同,条约,公约,协定
参考例句:
  • The two opposition parties made an electoral pact.那两个反对党订了一个有关选举的协定。
  • The trade pact between those two countries came to an end.那两国的通商协定宣告结束。
2 trump LU1zK     
n.王牌,法宝;v.打出王牌,吹喇叭
参考例句:
  • He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
  • The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手,作为他的王牌。
3 partnership NmfzPy     
n.合作关系,伙伴关系
参考例句:
  • The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
  • Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。
4 illustrates a03402300df9f3e3716d9eb11aae5782     
给…加插图( illustrate的第三人称单数 ); 说明; 表明; (用示例、图画等)说明
参考例句:
  • This historical novel illustrates the breaking up of feudal society in microcosm. 这部历史小说是走向崩溃的封建社会的缩影。
  • Alfred Adler, a famous doctor, had an experience which illustrates this. 阿尔弗莱德 - 阿德勒是一位著名的医生,他有过可以说明这点的经历。 来自中级百科部分
5 inevitably x7axc     
adv.不可避免地;必然发生地
参考例句:
  • In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去,毫无疑问是会散伙的。
  • Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。
6 adviser HznziU     
n.劝告者,顾问
参考例句:
  • They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
  • Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。
7 malleable Qwdyo     
adj.(金属)可锻的;有延展性的;(性格)可训练的
参考例句:
  • Silver is the most malleable of all metals.银是延展性最好的金属。
  • Scientists are finding that the adult human brain is far more malleable than they once thought.科学家发现成人大脑的可塑性远超过他们之前认识到的。
8 malleability CAaxW     
n.可锻性,可塑性,延展性
参考例句:
  • A material's loss of malleability due to chemical treatment or physical change. 材料由于化学处理或物理变化丧失了柔韧性。
  • Malleability is a physical property. 延展性是物质的一个物理特性。
9 tariff mqwwG     
n.关税,税率;(旅馆、饭店等)价目表,收费表
参考例句:
  • There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
  • The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。
10 plank p2CzA     
n.板条,木板,政策要点,政纲条目
参考例句:
  • The plank was set against the wall.木板靠着墙壁。
  • They intend to win the next election on the plank of developing trade.他们想以发展贸易的纲领来赢得下次选举。
11 vows c151b5e18ba22514580d36a5dcb013e5     
誓言( vow的名词复数 ); 郑重宣布,许愿
参考例句:
  • Matrimonial vows are to show the faithfulness of the new couple. 婚誓体现了新婚夫妇对婚姻的忠诚。
  • The nun took strait vows. 那位修女立下严格的誓愿。
12 durability Orxx5     
n.经久性,耐用性
参考例句:
  • Nylons have the virtue of durability.尼龙丝袜有耐穿的优点。
13 virtue BpqyH     
n.德行,美德;贞操;优点;功效,效力
参考例句:
  • He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
  • You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。
14 promotion eRLxn     
n.提升,晋级;促销,宣传
参考例句:
  • The teacher conferred with the principal about Dick's promotion.教师与校长商谈了迪克的升级问题。
  • The clerk was given a promotion and an increase in salary.那个职员升了级,加了薪。
15 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施
参考例句:
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设,发展各类群众文化。
16 taxation tqVwP     
n.征税,税收,税金
参考例句:
  • He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
17 tempting wgAzd4     
a.诱人的, 吸引人的
参考例句:
  • It is tempting to idealize the past. 人都爱把过去的日子说得那么美好。
  • It was a tempting offer. 这是个诱人的提议。
18 illustrated 2a891807ad5907f0499171bb879a36aa     
adj. 有插图的,列举的 动词illustrate的过去式和过去分词
参考例句:
  • His lecture was illustrated with slides taken during the expedition. 他在讲演中使用了探险时拍摄到的幻灯片。
  • The manufacturing Methods: Will be illustrated in the next chapter. 制作方法将在下一章说明。
19 balked 9feaf3d3453e7f0c289e129e4bd6925d     
v.畏缩不前,犹豫( balk的过去式和过去分词 );(指马)不肯跑
参考例句:
  • He balked in his speech. 他忽然中断讲演。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
  • They balked the robber's plan. 他们使强盗的计划受到挫败。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
20 bribery Lxdz7Z     
n.贿络行为,行贿,受贿
参考例句:
  • FBI found out that the senator committed bribery.美国联邦调查局查明这个参议员有受贿行为。
  • He was charged with bribery.他被指控受贿。
21 portfolio 9OzxZ     
n.公事包;文件夹;大臣及部长职位
参考例句:
  • He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
  • He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。
22 constraints d178923285d63e9968956a0a4758267e     
强制( constraint的名词复数 ); 限制; 约束
参考例句:
  • Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
  • What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么? 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

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