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'Hot hand' exists and it is a robust1 phenomenon, researchers say
Basketball fans know the concept of the "hot hand." It's when a player scores, and scores and keeps on scoring. Is it a perception — or is there some actual data to support it?
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
OK, basketball fans who are busily watching the NCAA tournament around this time know the concept of the hot hand.
A MARTINEZ, HOST:
Yeah, it's when a player scores...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: LeBron - a healthy three.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: It's down.
MARTINEZ: ...And scores...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Oh, get out of his way.
MARTINEZ: ...And keeps on scoring.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: It's good. He's as hot as a blowtorch.
INSKEEP: OK, so is the hot hand - as hot as a blowtorch - just a perception, or are there data to support it?
KONSTANTINOS PELECHRINIS: The hot hand exists, and it's a robust phenomenon.
MARTINEZ: That's Konstantinos Pelechrinis. He teaches computer science at the University of Pittsburgh, and he's studied the hot hand. He and his research partner crunched3 the numbers on more than 150 NBA players during the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
PELECHRINIS: You can see specific players having it consistently during games, but overall, as a league, you cannot say that every player is going to have that.
INSKEEP: ...Because hot streaks4 are not that common. He found 30 players who pretty much defined the hot hand, with Kemba Walker and Jordan Hill leading the league. But even then, the effect doesn't work like a power-up in a video game.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
MARTINEZ: In the case of Walker and Hill, for instance, it only boosted their chances of making their next shot by 7%. And it's also possible that the primary cause is more about strategy.
PELECHRINIS: Hot hand is not necessarily someone getting into the zone. It's finding a mismatch and going after that mismatch three or four times in a row until the opponent decides to change the strategy.
MARTINEZ: So when you hear a broadcaster talk about how a player has the hot hand and they keep feeding that player the ball - which is called a heat check, by the way - it may be less about luck and more by design.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
1 robust | |
adj.强壮的,强健的,粗野的,需要体力的,浓的 | |
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2 transcript | |
n.抄本,誊本,副本,肄业证书 | |
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3 crunched | |
v.嘎吱嘎吱地咬嚼( crunch的过去式和过去分词 );嘎吱作响;(快速大量地)处理信息;数字捣弄 | |
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4 streaks | |
n.(与周围有所不同的)条纹( streak的名词复数 );(通常指不好的)特征(倾向);(不断经历成功或失败的)一段时期v.快速移动( streak的第三人称单数 );使布满条纹 | |
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