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Steep sell-offs in U.S. stocks have started to spread worldwide
The volatility2 in U.S. markets is rocking stock, bond and currency trading in other countries. Many blame the Federal Reserve for the wild swings.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The U.S. stock market has been seeing some wild swings. It's up. It's down - mostly, it's down. The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have all fallen by more than 20% from their peaks, putting them into bear market territory. But this extreme and painful volatility is not just confined to stocks or to the U.S. it's playing out worldwide. NPR's David Gura joins us now to explain. Hi, David.
DAVID GURA, BYLINE3: Hey, Leila.
FADEL: So David, tell us more about what's going on in markets around the world here.
GURA: So the fear and the panic that we've seen driving steep sell-offs in U.S. stocks has started to spread to the bond market, where there also have been steep sell-offs and where yields on U.S. Treasuries5 are at levels we haven't seen in more than a decade. It's also spread to commodities. Oil prices have fallen so much. They're almost back to where they were at the start of the year. And there's fear and panic in the currencies market - the British pound trading at a record low against the U.S. dollar this week, China's currency also weakening considerably6 and Japan intervening to try to prop7 up the yen8. As one professional investor9 told me, Leila, everything is starting to take a big hit.
FADEL: So what's driving all this volatility?
GURA: There is so much going on affecting markets - of course, high inflation...
FADEL: Right.
GURA: ...Which is a problem globally. Then there's the war in Ukraine and problems with supply chains. But those are issues we've heard about for a while now. What's new is how investors10 are pointing their fingers squarely at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Many of them are hiking interest rates, which is increasing borrowing costs around the world and spooking markets. And that's a big change, according to investor and economist11 Mohamed El-Erian, who's with the firm Allianz. Here's how he explained it on CNBC.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: This is about governments and central banks being sources of volatility rather than volatility suppressors.
GURA: You know, in general, central banks do everything they can to keep markets calm. But right now, that is not their main focus. They want to get inflation under control. So the Fed, this institution that we count on to keep the economy on track or to put it back on track, is now getting blamed for all this topsy-turvyness (ph). And, Leila, it's also being hurt by this volatility.
FADEL: Can you explain that? How's the Fed getting hurt?
GURA: So it first predicted this bout4 of inflation would not last long, it would be short-lived, a symptom of the global pandemic. But it's become long-lasting and really insidious12. And what Wall Street wants is clear guidance from the Fed and from other central banks about where they think the economy is headed and what their plans are. And they're struggling to give it. Daragh Maher is the head of research for the Americas at the bank HSBC.
DARAGH MAHER: It's very difficult for central banks to offer guidance because everything hinges on the data. And, you know, what's driving the data? Energy prices, food prices - all of these things are really difficult to call, as we found out.
FADEL: So other central banks around the world are also playing a big role.
GURA: Yeah. So they're all locked in this fight against high inflation. Sweden just raised interest rates, so did Norway. Brazil hiked rates 12 times, then decided13 to take a break. This week, after the pound hit that record low against the dollar, the United Kingdom Central Bank first stayed the course. Then today, the Bank of England announced it plans to intervene. It's going to buy government bonds at an urgent pace to try to stabilize14 the bond market, which has taken a hit. The fallout from the weakening pound could pose a risk to financial stability in the U.K., the bank said in a statement.
FADEL: OK. So while the pound weakened, the U.S. dollar strengthened. What effect does such a strong dollar have worldwide?
GURA: The consequences are huge and really wide-ranging. And Fed policies, these rising rates, have really pushed up the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. Now, a strong dollar is good for U.S. importers, for American travelers. But it also causes a lot of pain. I talked about this with Edmond Shing, who's the chief investment officer at the bank BNP Paribas.
EDMOND SHING: We're at a point where the U.S. dollar is acting15 like a wrecking16 ball and hitting all financial markets very, very hard.
GURA: That's because it really impacts trade. So many transactions are done in dollars. And imports in many countries are going to be more expensive because their currencies have weakened. And this is hurting multinational17 companies based in the U.S. that do business elsewhere. When they convert the money they've made in other currencies into dollars, they'll take a hit.
FADEL: Will we see any of this calm down any time soon?
GURA: That seems unlikely. The volatility is not going anywhere. The Fed and many other central banks plan to keep raising interest rates. The dollar shows no signs of weakening. And the uncertainty18 remains19. Professional investors tell me, keep an eye on what companies say. Many of them are reporting quarterly results in the coming weeks. We'll see how they've weathered this challenging economy. And, Leila, they'll update their outlooks for the months to come.
FADEL: NPR's David Gura. Thank you for your reporting.
GURA: Thank you.
1 transcript | |
n.抄本,誊本,副本,肄业证书 | |
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2 volatility | |
n.挥发性,挥发度,轻快,(性格)反复无常 | |
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3 byline | |
n.署名;v.署名 | |
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4 bout | |
n.侵袭,发作;一次(阵,回);拳击等比赛 | |
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5 treasuries | |
n.(政府的)财政部( treasury的名词复数 );国库,金库 | |
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6 considerably | |
adv.极大地;相当大地;在很大程度上 | |
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7 prop | |
vt.支撑;n.支柱,支撑物;支持者,靠山 | |
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8 yen | |
n. 日元;热望 | |
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9 investor | |
n.投资者,投资人 | |
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10 investors | |
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 ) | |
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11 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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12 insidious | |
adj.阴险的,隐匿的,暗中为害的,(疾病)不知不觉之间加剧 | |
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13 decided | |
adj.决定了的,坚决的;明显的,明确的 | |
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14 stabilize | |
vt.(使)稳定,使稳固,使稳定平衡;vi.稳定 | |
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15 acting | |
n.演戏,行为,假装;adj.代理的,临时的,演出用的 | |
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16 wrecking | |
破坏 | |
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17 multinational | |
adj.多国的,多种国籍的;n.多国籍公司,跨国公司 | |
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18 uncertainty | |
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物 | |
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19 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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