TED演讲:女性是怎样发起非暴力冲突的(2)

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Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns Maria Stephan和Erica Chenoweth发现非暴力运动

were almost 100 percent more likely to lead to success than violent campaigns. 相较于暴力运动高出接近一倍的成功率

Nonviolent campaigns are also less likely to cause physical harm to those waging the campaign, as well as their opponents. 非暴力运动也更不易对运动发起人造成身体上的伤害，对其对手而言也是如此

And, critically, they typically lead to more peaceful and democratic societies. 并且，严格说来，也通常会得到更和平和民主的社会

In other words, nonviolent resistance is a more effective and constructive¹ way of waging conflict. 换句话说，非暴力抵抗是一个更高效和建设性的发起抗争的方法

But if that's such an easy choice, why don't more groups use it? 但如果这是个显而易见的选择，为什么没有更多的团体运用它？

Political scientist Victor Asal and colleagues have looked at several factors that shape a political group's choice of tactics. 政治学家Victor Asal和他的同事调查了影响政治团体策略选择的几个因素

And it turns out that the greatest predictor of a movement's decision to adopt nonviolence or violence 结果表明影响一个运动采取非暴力或是暴力的决定的最大影响因素

is not whether that group is more left-wing or right-wing, 不是这个团体是更偏向左翼还是右翼

not whether the group is more or less influenced by religious beliefs, 也不是团体被宗教信仰影响的多少

not whether it's up against a democracy or a dictatorship, and not even the levels of repression² that that group is facing. 不是它反抗的是民主还是独裁，甚至也不是这个团体遭受镇压迫的水平

The greatest predictor of a movement's decision to adopt nonviolence is its ideology³ regarding the role of women in public life. 影响一个运动的采用非暴力的决定的最大因素是它关于女人在公共生活中角色的意识形态。

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